全球清洁投资监测：电动汽车与电池

Global Clean InvestmentMonitor: Electric Vehicles and Energy & Climate Authors MichaelDelgado,Jessica Chan,Kate Larsen,Anne Luo,CharlotteMcClintock, Mahmoud Mobir, Shweta Movalia, Abbie Olson, Hannah Pitt,Alfredo Rivera, Harold Tavarez, Yvonne Yu, Xinyu Zheng Contents INTRODUCING THE GLOBAL CLEAN INVESTMENT MONITOR3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY4 CONCLUSION61 Introducing the Global Clean Investment Monitor Many major economies see domestic manufacturing of clean energy and transportationtechnology as a powerful driver of economic growth, important to national securityobjectives, or necessary to sustained political support for related policies. Governmentsin the US, China, and Europe all provide fiscal or other policy support to spur boththe As these industries mature, new international trade and cross-border investment tensionsbetween major economies will emerge. Governments are increasingly concerned aboutthe security and resilience of clean energy supply chains and the need to counter theeconomicinfluence of their competitors through trade and overseas investment. For the past two years, the USClean Investment Monitor(CIM)—a joint project of RhodiumGroup and MIT’s Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR)—hasprovideda comprehensive,real-time source of information on investment in the Rhodium and MIT-CEEPR are now developing a newGlobal Clean Investment Monitor(GCIM)to track global investment in the manufacturing and deployment of clean energytechnologies.The GCIM will provide policymakers and investors with up-to-dateinformation on the manufacturing and deployment of clean energy technologies, includingdata on manufacturing investments at various stages of completion, estimated annual Executive Summary In this first edition of the Global Clean Investment Monitor series, we explore how—afterdecades of national policy support, primarily in the US, China, and Europe—electricvehicles (EVs) and batteries have been catapulted into mass commercialization. DemandforEVs and batteries has risen sharply as EVs reach cost competitiveness withcombustion vehicles across many regions. In this report, we share insights from ourtracking of 1,248 EV and battery manufacturing facilities around the world—including How will China’s automakers and the rest of the world react to China's massiveovercapacity in batteries—and to a lesser extent EVs—over the coming years? Thanks to sustained state support for EV and battery manufacturing and deployment, aswell as a massive domestic market, China has been home to two-thirds of global growthinEV sales and manufacturing capacity and over 80%of the growth in batterymanufacturing capacity over the last 15 years. Fierce competition among EV and batterymanufacturers in China for state-based incentives has led to a sharp decline in EV and Projected battery manufacturing capacity in 2030 and expected global demand (GWh of cells) How will Europe’s near- and long-term zero-emission vehicle ambitions fare as European After China, Europe is the world’s second-largest EV market, and current and plannedpolicies put the region on track to achieve 100% zero-emission vehicles in the comingdecades. Unlike China where nearly all EV sales are produced domestically, almost a thirdof Europe’s EVs are imported. In 2024, 15% of EVs sold in Europe were Chinese brands,most of which offer a significant cost advantagecompared to European brands. Costparity with ICE vehicles will be critical to achieving Europe’s zero-emission vehicleambitions, making cheap imports from China a boon to scaling EV deployment. Looking What is the outlook for the EV transition in the United States? Unlike China and Europe,where EVs have reached escape velocity, the potential for the US to follow suit is at risk The passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) inthe US in2022 kicked off unprecedentedinvestments in domestic EV supply chains by providing direct subsidies for domestic consumer EV tax credits tied to domestic content requirements and stricter tailpiperegulations, have spurred a wave of investment in domestic EV supply chains over the In contrast with Europe, the US has been on track to establish a competitive EV industrybased on a largely domestic EV supply chain, but just as the EV transition is gaining steam,the EV and battery manufacturing sectors are now at risk of having core policy supportrevoked. President Trump’s trade policy and signs of slowing demand cast further doubton the outlook for EVs in the US. Going forward, key questions about the future of anelectric vehicle transition in the US include: What happens to domestic production andsales if key policies, including the IRA tax credits and federal and state EV and GHG How will the rest of the world respond to these dynamics emerging among China, Europe, While China, Europe, and the US dominate EV markets today, sales in the rest of the worldare rising rapidly. We project that by 2050, EV sales outside of China, Europe, and th