2026年第二季度经济报告（英）2026

2nd Quarter 2026 SVB Asset Management views oneconomic and market factors affectingglobal markets and business health OverviewDomestic EconomyForeign ExchangeCentral Banks and Monetary PolicyCorporate Bond MarketMarkets and Performance The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate unchanged at its Marchmeeting. •The first quarter of 2026 highlighted theinterconnectedness of geopolitical events,inflation and monetary policy, underscoringthe importance of diversification andcautious optimism in navigating marketvolatility. The Middle East conflict was adominant factor, driving oil prices andinfluencing inflation and market sentiment. The FOMC’s cautious approach reflected the dual challenges of managing inflation and supporting asoftening labor market. The outlook for rate cuts for the rest of the year remains uncertain, with someestimates pointing to fewer than one cut. The unemployment rate fluctuated slightly from 4.3% to 4.4% in January through March. Demographic shifts and reduced labor force participation influenced the unemployment data.Employment trends softened, with nonfarm payrolls contracting in five of the past nine months. •The Federal Reserve maintained the federalfunds rate at 3.64% throughout Q1 2026,reflecting a cautious stance amidstinflationary pressures and geopoliticaluncertainties. The economy expanded at an annualized rate of 0.5% in Q4 2025, a sharp decline from the robust 4.4%growth in the previous quarter. Inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions and cautious consumerbehavior continue to contribute to the slowdown. •Inflationary pressures were initially easing,with core Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.5%year-over-year (YoY) in February. However,the escalation of conflict in the Middle Eastcaused a sharp rise in oil prices, reversingearlier disinflation trends. The US dollar (USD) appreciated against most currencies, driven by safe-haven demand. The USD’s strength was further supported by robust US economic fundamentals, including a strong labormarket and easing inflationary pressures, as well as a repricing of the Fed’s rate expectations. The US Treasury yield curve steepened in Q1 2026. •Investment grade (IG) corporate bondsexperienced a challenging first quarter in2026. Rising US Treasury yields, driven byinflation concerns and geopolitical risks,weighed on bond returns. The Bloomberg USAggregate Bond Index, which includes IGcorporate bonds, was flat for the quarter,underperforming its prior four quarters ofpositive returns. Treasury yields rose sharply in March, with the 10-year yield ending near 4.32%, driven by inflationconcerns and geopolitical risks. The widening of credit spreads in Q1 2026 marked the highest level since early 2025. Although investors were somewhat cautious, credit spreads remained well below levels seen during pastrecessions and financial crises. The average number of jobs grew by approximately 68,000 per month in Q1 2026. The unemployment rate stayed mostly flat, ranging between4.3% to 4.4% from January to March. As measured in February, there are fewer jobs available (~6.9 million) than unemployed Americans(~7.6 million). 2025 saw a sharp fluctuation in net exports due to tariff concerns affecting the market at the beginning of the year. Tariffs also affectedpersonal consumption, which was stronger in services than in goods. Private domestic investment started high but declined in Q2 due to adownturn in manufacturing for nondurable goods. Overall, GDP for the full year of 2025 was 2.1%, down from 2.8% in 2024. Retail sales, excluding vehicles, have risen slightly between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Vehicle sales started to recover from the end of2025, but remain muted amidst fears of higher oil prices. Due to uncertainty in the Middle East andincreased oil prices, the March 2026 CPI rose to3.3%. Inflation had previously been declining,with the February 2026 CPI at 2.4% YoY. Corepersonal consumption expenditures (PCE)increased to 3.0% YoY in February 2026, thesame as it was in February 2025. Existing home supply recovered slightly inQ1 2026 from the December 2025 dip, buthome sales have eased due to risingmortgage rates and economic uncertainty. Business sentiment was above averagethroughout Q1 2026. The Institute for SupplyManagement (ISM) data shows encouragingperformance in manufacturing and services,with manufacturing expanding despiteconcerns over rising input prices. Conflict in Iran aside, the macro backdrop today mirrors the early 2000s-dollar bear market. USD overvaluation, Fed easing, twindeficits widening, reserve diversification, risk-on equity markets and rising commodity prices are all present in both cycles. Q4 2024:The political “red wave” drovemarkets to recalibrate rate cut expectationsfor 2025 and beyond. Potential pro-growthpolicies pushed inflation expectations higher,which drove 2-year rates up 60+ basis points(bps), even while the Fed eased 100 bps bythe end of 2024. Higher inflation exp