石油市场报告2026年5月（英）2026

13 May 2026 •World oil demand is forecast to contract by 420 kb/d y-o-y in 2026, to 104 mb/d, 1.3 mb/dless than our pre-war forecast. The biggest decline is in 2Q26, down by 2.45 mb/d, of whichthe OECD accounts for 930 kb/d and the non-OECD for 1.5 mb/d. The petrochemical andaviationsectors are currently most affected,but higher prices,a weaker economicenvironment and demand-saving measures will increasingly impact fuel use. •Global oil supply declined by a further 1.8 mb/d in April to 95.1 mb/d, taking total lossessince February to 12.8 mb/d. Output from Gulf countries affected by the closure of the Straitof Hormuz was 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels. Higher production and exports from theAtlantic Basin provide some relief. Assuming flows through the Strait gradually resume fromJune, global oil supply is projected to decline by 3.9 mb/d on average in 2026, to 102.2 mb/d. •Refinery crude throughputs are forecast to plunge by 4.5 mb/d in 2Q26 to 78.7 mb/d, andby 1.6 mb/d to 82.3 mb/d for 2026 as a whole, as operators contend with infrastructuredamage, export restrictions and lower feedstock availability. Refining margins remain athistorically high levels, supported by record middle distillate cracks. Refiners are adaptingto the crisis, with new trade flows emerging to compensate for lost Gulf product exports. •Global observed oil inventories drew by 129 mb in March and by a further 117 mb in April,according to preliminary data. Continued disruptions to seaborne trade through the Strait ofHormuz saw on-land stocks drop by 170 mb (-5.7 mb/d) in April, while oil on water reboundedby 53 mb. OECD countries’ on-land stocks plummeted by 146 mb (-4.9 mb/d) while visiblenon-OECD stocks fell by 24 mb. •North Sea Dated traded in an unparalleled wide range of almost $50/bbl in April, with thedisruption to Middle East flows triggering a surge in prices of about $16.50/bbl m-o-m to anaverage of $120.36/bbl. Time spreads oscillated in line with flat prices, with prompt timespreads in WTI and Brent futures ending the month at around $5/bbl. Dated’s premium toICE Brent futures weakened from a record $35/bbl in mid-April to $3/bbl in early May. Work with the data behind IEA analysisSubscription datasets and databases Use IEA subscription data services and specialised databases to work with trusted, consistenttime series for energy markets and emissions. Depending on the product, data are availablevia online data services and/or downloadable files — supporting analysis, forecasting,benchmarking and evidence-based decision-making. Explore the full catalogue of IEA data products on our websitehere. For subscription access,licensing and delivery options, please visit ourHelp centre. Monthly Oil Data Service(MODS) Other reports & databases you may want toexplore For those that need a clear view of short term oilmarket fundamentals, MODS brings together aunique monthly set of supply, demand, trade andfield production data, in many cases by country.Designed for monitoring market developments, itoffers consistent historical time series for analysis,forecasting and cross country comparison,alongside 6–18 month forecast data. •World Energy Statistics and Balances:comprehensive annual energysupply-and-demand data covering 156countries, 68 products, 98 flows and 83indicators, with long historical time series (from1960) for robust trend analysis. •Energy Prices: end-use prices by sector(industry, household and transport) andfuel for 148 countries, with weekly, monthly,quarterly and annual series — supporting policyanalysis, affordability assessments and marketmonitoring. World Energy Outlook(WEO) The IEA’s flagshipWorld Energy Outlookcombinesthe latest energy data with scenario-basedanalysis of possible energy futures and theirimplications for security, access and emissions. •Fuel information databases: detailed market,supply and consumption data by fuel to supportsector-specific analysis (e.g.Oil,Natural Gas,Electricity,Coal,Renewables). For users who want to work directly with thenumbers behind the analysis, the WEO datasetsprovide structured, transparent inputs forbenchmarking, forecasting, modelling andcomparison across scenarios. •Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy: annualglobal and country data on energy-relatedGHG emissions and indicators, including CO2,CH4N2O from fuel combustion and fugitiveemissions — useful for tracking trends andbenchmarking. AnnualandUpstreamEmissions Factors Built for those who need reliable and trustworthydata on emissions intensity for inventories andreporting. TheAnnual databaseprovides country-level GHG emission factors for electricity andheat generation, including adjustment factorsrelated to trade, transport, and transmissionand distribution losses. TheUpstream databasecomplements this with country- and year-specificestimates of the life-cycle footprint of electricitygeneration. Together, they support consistentemissions reporting across scopes and helpensure comparability across c