电子元器件 | 日本 4月HDD/SSD数据：数据中心需求持续强劲

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+ Shoji SatoEquity AnalystShoji.Sato@morganstanleymufg.com Apr HDD/SSD Data: ContinuingStrong Data Center Demand Sota HarashimaEquity AnalystSota.Harashima@morganstanleymufg.com+81 3 6836-8897 Key Takeaways Electronic ComponentsJapanIndustry ViewIn-Line DC storage likely to stay segmented between SSDs, HDDs, and tape drives.TSR forecasts 2026 DC-use enterprise SSD shipment capacity at 476.1EB, up81.3% YoY.TSR forecast 2026 DC-use NL HDD shipment capacity at 1,844EB, up 30.3% YoY.Non-enterprise SSD shipment volume for PCs, add-ons, and gaming declined YoY.TDK resumed HDD shipments to Seagate and Western Digital from Jan-Mar. Weexpect substantial volume growth from Apr-Jun. No change to view for continued growth in shipment volume/capacity of both NLHDDs and enterprise SSDs for data center use:We anticipate high production andper/unit capacity growth will continue for both NL HDDs and enterprise SSDs, andthat overall shipment capacity will continue to rise. Techno Systems Research (TSR)forecasts further growth in total HDD shipment capacity, raising its 2026 estimatefrom 2,004.5EB (+23.1% YoY) last month to 2,058.2EB (+26.4% YoY) this month,compared to 1,627.9EB (+29.5% YoY) in 2025, and in total SSD shipment capacity,raising its 2026 estimate from 668.9EB (+34.3% YoY) last month to 675.30EB(+35.6% YoY) this month, compared to 498.0EB in 2025 (+38.0% YoY). With higher-capacity products accounting for a rising share of the mix in both NL HDDs andenterprise SSDs, we see potential for capacity growth to significantly outstripshipment unit growth. Meanwhile, shipment volumes of non-enterprise SSDs forPCs, add-ons, and gaming declined YoY, partly due to rising NAND flash prices. TDK resumed shipments of HDD heads to Seagate and Western Digital in Jan-Marquarter:According to TSR data, Jan-Mar shipments of heads to Seagate (200,000units) accounted for just 0.4% of TDK's total shipment volume (52.8mn units) and0.1% of Seagate head usage (165.6mn units) while shipments to WDC (700,000units) accounted for only 1.3% of TDK's shipments and 0.4% of WDC's usage(184.4mn units). However, TSR expects that TDK's shipments of heads to Seagateand WDC will rise sharply from Apr-Jun. TDK has indicated that it expects 40% YoYgrowth in F3/27 HDD head shipment volume, suggesting a substantial increase from198.7mn units in F3/26 to 278.18mn units in F3/27. Source:TSR, Morgan Stanley Research Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. Apr DC NL HDD output +14.3% YoY, –0.6% MoM:Apr NL HDD production was6.80mn units (5.95mn a year ago, 6.84mn a month ago). NL output fell from81.45mn units in 2021 (+18.0% YoY) to 71.30mn in 2022 (–12.5%) and 44.51mn in2023 (–37.6%), then rose to 63.12mn in 2024 (+41.8%) and to 74.77mn in 2025(+18.5%). TSR forecasts 83.97mn units for 2026 (+12.3% YoY), vs last month'sforecast of 84.22mn (+12.6% YoY), with Jan–Mar production at 20.77mn units(+19.9% YoY, +5.0% QoQ) and Apr–Jun at 20.85mn (+13.5% YoY, +0.4% QoQ). For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Apr DC-use enterprise SSD shipments (capacity) +116.7% YoY, +2.5% MoM:Apr enterprise SSD shipments came to 37.70EB (17.40EB a year ago, 36.80EB a month ago).Full CY: 77.47EB in 2021, 109.83EB (+41.8% YoY) in 2022, 102.66EB (–6.5%) in 2023,165.95EB (+61.6%) in 2024, and 262.5EB (+58.2% YoY) in 2025. TSR forecasts totalenterprise SSD shipment capacity of 476.1EB in 2026 (+81.30% YoY), up from last month'sforecast of 425.3EB (+62.0%). Apr HDD output +8.3% YoY, -2.4% MoM:Apr HDD production was 11.18mn units(10.32mn a year ago, 11.45mn a month ago). HDD output declined from 261.70mn units in2021 (–0.1% YoY) to 168.70mn in 2022 (–35.5%), then to 120.51mn in 2023 (–28.6%), butrose to 124.77mn in 2024 (+3.5%) and to 129.54mn in 2025 (+3.8%). TSR forecasts135.04mn units for 2026 (+4.2% YoY), up from last month's forecast of 134.86mn (+4.1%YoY), estimating Jan–Mar at 33.89mn units (+12.9% YoY, +0.1% QoQ) and Apr–Jun at33.81mn units (+6.7% YoY, –0.2% QoQ), vs last month's forecast of 33.75mn (+6.5% YoY, -1.2% QoQ). Our forecasts shown in Exhibit 4 onward reflect shipments and differ fromTSR’s production estimates. Apr SSD shipments +3.3% YoY, -1.5% MoM:Apr SSD shipments were 29.23mn units(28.30mn a year ago, 29.67mn a month ago). SSD shipments fell from 383.0