MongoDB 2027年第一季度：强劲季度，反应平淡

Firoz Valliji, CFA+1 917 344 8316firoz.valliji@bernsteinsg.com Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8506mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com Shelly Tang, CFA+1 917 344 8342shelly.tang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target MDB 449.00 USD(428.00OLD) MongoDB 1Q27: Strong quarter, Muted reaction MongoDB delivered solid results for 1Q27 and raised its FY27 revenue growth guidancefrom 17% to 19%. Yet, the stock fluctuated ~15% in after-hours, before settling flat. Webelieve stronger results from peers raised the bar for MDB. Additionally, one could argue thatthe guidance increase is a bit conservative, and the commentary on AI adoption is relativelymeasured. We view both the conservative guidance and AI commentary as prudent and inline with MDB’s historical cadence. We continue to think that MDB has the right product tobenefit from AI adoption. Management highlighted a small but accelerating contribution fromFrontier (AI) labs and AI-native customers, but did not elaborate further. Overall, given thestrong demand environment and MDB’s execution, we continue to like MDB’s prospects fordelivering healthy beat-and-raise through FY27. However, narratives around AI adoption maydrive volatility. MDB beat on all key metrics in 1Q, with revenue coming in 3.5% above consensus andguidance. The beat was driven by continued strong 29% growth in Atlas cloud revenue. Non-Atlas ARR grew 13% YoY, and revenue grew 20% well ahead of expectations. Non-GAAPoperating margin was 18%, up 2pts YoY. MDB also raised its FY27 GAAP and non-GAAPoperating margin guidance by 2pts. NRR stepped up by 1pp YoY to 121%. Overall, 1Q27 results and guidance were in line with our expectation ( MongoDB 4Q26: It'sstarting to feel like a Q4 ritual) and we continue to like the prospects for healthy beat-and-raise from MDB through FY27 Investment Implications MongoDB (PT $449, Outperform)delivered a strong beat-and-raise in the quarter.Narratives around AI adoption may drive volatility. Still, given the broader strength in IaaS/PaaS demand, and strong execution, we continue to like the prospects for healthy beat-and-raise from MDB through FY27. Coupled with ~35% valuation rest over the past six months,we like the near-term setup for the stock. Longer term, we continue to favor MDB given itsexposure to a large and fast-growing market and its potential to benefit from AI adoption. Wemaintain our Outperform rating. We are raising our price target from $428 to $449 — raisingour estimates, but lowering our target EV/Sales multiple from 10x to 9.5x, due to broaderstep-down in software sector valuation. VALUATION COMPS TABLE DETAILS MongoDB delivered solid results for 1Q27, nicely beating guidance and consensus. MDB also raised FY27 revenue growthguidance from 17% to 19% and operating margin guidance by 2pts. All key business metrics and commentary on the earningscall were healthy. Yet, the stock fluctuated more than 15% in after-hours, before settling flat. We think three factors explain thesubdued stock reaction: •Snowflake delivered a bigger beat-and-raise , which effectively raised the bar for MDB. •One can nitpick that FY27 revenue growth guidance increase of ~2.5% was a bit conservative given 3.5pts beat in currentquarter. We think this is a prudent approach and in line with MDB’s historical cadence of guiding conservatively. Given thedemand environment and MDB’s execution, we continue to expect strong beat and raise trajectory through FY27. •Commentary on AI workloads and contribution was measured relative to Snowflake. We continue to think it is prudent formanagement to maintain conservative and grounded narrative untill revenue contribution becomes sizable. We also thinkthat MDB has the right product to benefit from AI adoption. Management highlighted a small but accelerating contributionfrom Frontier (AI) labs and AI-native customers, but didn’t elaborate further. Overall , 1Q27 results and guidance were in line with our expectations ( MongoDB 4Q26: It's starting to feel like a Q4 ritual) andwe continue to like the prospects of healthy beat-and-raise from MDB through FY27. While narratives around AI adoption candrive volatility, we think MDB has the right product and is well positioned to benefit from broader AI adoption. THOUGHTS ON THE QUARTER WHAT WE LIKED •Solid 1Q beat driven by Atlas:The company beat across all key metrics in 1Q (Exhibit 2), with revenue coming in 3.5%above consensus and beating management guidance. The beat was driven by stronger than expected Atlas consumption.Atlas cloud revenue grew 29.4% and now makes up 75% of total revenue. Management noted particular strength amonglarger customers, as well as small but accelerating contribution from early AI deployments across enterprise customers. Thecompany also notes that as Atlas gets larger, it has become more predictable and less sensitive to revenue movements withany individual customer or cohort. •Raised FY27 revenue growth guidance by 2.4 pts:Management raised full year revenue