当数字系统崩溃：我们数字世界的隐性风险专家报告

When digital systems fail Foreword As digital systems become ever more central to our lives, the risks that threaten themincreasingly transcend sectors, institutions, and borders. Critical digital disruptions, whetherdriven by natural hazards, infrastructure failure, or systemic interdependencies, can spill over at This report confronts a growing paradox. While digital infrastructure has brought extraordinaryefficiency, connectivity, and resilience to everyday life, it has also created new forms of systemicvulnerability.They unfold quietly,across interdependent systems,until critical functions Developed through a co-creation process with international experts, this report makes visiblethe hidden dependencies and knock-on effects that standard risk assessments tend to overlook. The report reflects a joint effort by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the UnitedNationsOffice for Disaster Risk Reduction(UNDRR),and Sciences Po Paris School of As digital interdependence deepens faster than our ability to govern it, collaboration is no Arancha GonzálezDean of the Paris Schoolof International Affairs, Kamal KishoreSpecial Representative ofthe UN Secretary-Generalfor Disaster Risk Reduction, Doreen Bogdan-MartinSecretary-General, When digital systems fail Acknowledgements This report is the product of a structured co-creation process built on the iterative andsubstantive input of an international panel of senior experts. The process was led by Jan Verlin(Associate Professor, University Jean Moulin Lyon 3/Sciences Po–CrisisLab/Ecole NormaleSupérieure–Chair in Geopolitics of Risk), the lead author of this report and co-chaired byHumbulani Mudau (Chief Executive Officer, South African National Space Agency) and ÖyküIşık (Professor of Digital Strategy & Cybersecurity, IMD Business School). It is built on theknowledge, experience, and critical engagement of a core expert group: Natalie Black (Group This process was made possible through the support and commitment of three institutionalpartners.At the International Telecommunication Union(ITU),the lead author and thecontributors thank Secretary-General Doreen Bogdan-Martin and Deputy Secretary-GeneralTomas Lamanauskas for their leadership, as well as Andrés Figoli for his expertise on submarinecable infrastructure, Jorge Ciccorossi for his contributions on space radiocommunicationsystems, and Hannah Brügmann for coordinating the entire process with dedication andeffectiveness. At the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), the authors Finally, the authors would like to express their appreciation to the students from the Master inTechnology and Global Affairs at Sciences Po PSIA who participated actively in the co-creationprocess: Alexander Davies, Noa Hajji, Ariel Nzembe, Antoine Roux de Luze, Paola GarciaMunoz, Sehee Lim, Bronwen Schriml, Wendi Gjata, Naomi Kurian, Adrian Gao, Paloma Lier, Inès When digital systems fail Table of contents Foreword ....................................................................................................................................iiAcknowledgements.................................................................................................................... iiiExecutive summary ....................................................................................................................v Part 1:Scenarios of critical digital failures .........................................................................1 Shared patterns of systemic digital risks........................................................................8 Disclaimer.................................................................................................................................19 When digital systems fail Executive summary What if, tomorrow, mobile phones and the internet stopped working, payments failed, hospitals lostpatient data, and emergency alerts never arrived? What may sound like science fiction could becomereality. A large-scale, escalating failure of critical digital systems, a ‘digital pandemic’, is a plausiblescenario that current management frameworks are not yet designed to address. Modern society runs on critical digital infrastructure: From electricity, finance and transport to healthcare,communication and government services. Everything depends on deeply connected systems that are A solar storm of the magnitude that narrowly missed Earth in 2012 could have knocked out power gridsand communications across entire continents. Growing space debris already threatens to push low-Earthorbit toward failure, jeopardizing satellite navigation, financial networks, and weather forecasting all atonce. Extreme weather, which is growing more violent with climate change, has already shown its capacity This report shows that digital disruptions rarely remain isolated events. They cascade. What begins witha local failure can rapidly spread across sectors and borders. In fact, up