美国的日本食品：面条价值增长加速及味之素处于复苏轨道 - 截至5月16日的尼尔森数据

Japan Food in the USA: Noodle value growth accelerating andAjinomoto on the recovery track - Nielsen to May 16 Kikkoman, Ajinomoto and Yakult's key categories in the USA. Over the latest 4wk period themagnitude of Ajinomoto's Frozen Foods recall moderated with Rice and Complete Meal salesvolumedeclinesslowingto8%&3%,respectively.InInstantnoodlesNissin'svolumegrowthunderperformedToyoSuisan(-3.7%vs+0.1%),butvaluegrowthacceleratedto2%onthebackofpriceincrease.ToyoSuisan'svaluegrowthoutperformancecontinued,andtheratewithno sign of Conagra resolving theirdislocation.Yakultvaluedgrew1.8%overthelast4wk,as expected, and is likely to remain in the LSDrange until March/April 2027when theirnewproduction capacitycomes online. +81359629611euan.mcleish@bernsteinsg.com +85221232627hao.wang@bernsteinsg.con +81 36777 6995mufei.gao@bernsteinsg.com InstantNoodles-ToyoSuisanlast12/4wksvalue+9.3%/+12.0%,Nissin-+1.1%/+2.0%: Nissin's 4wk volume decline moderated to -3.7% in May from -6.7% in April,underperformingToyoSuisan's+O.1%.Nissinprice/mixincreasedto+6%inMay,whichshould be positivefor margins,despite volume softness.Toyo Suisan accelerated itsstrong value growth momentum, +12% over the last 4wks from 7.7% in April, driven bycontinuous strong price/mix (+12%) and moderating volume declines. With the company'snew California production line duetocommence operations inlate June,we expect Toyovolumes to improve in Q2,but mix islikelyto suffer somewhat.Wehave updated our Toyomodel to reflect their Q4 results and latest US momentum.Samyang's growth continued toslow sequentially with 4wk value“only"+21.4%. +2.7%/+2.0%: Soy Sauce category value growth increaseto 8% overthelast 4wks fromto+3% in April.Kikkoman Soy Sauce continued to gain volume share+54bps vs Conagra-105bps share, with the remainder of the loss going to Private Label (+95bps).KikkomanSoy Sauce price/mix was stable over the last 4wk (+1.8%)while Private Label sacrificedprice mix (-2%). Continued Conagra volume declines (-15%/-17%) indicate that theirsupply chain disruption remains ongoing.Rice category growth momentum slowed (vol-3%, val +2% last 3mths), but JFC volume returned to growth (+1%) with price/mix comingdown to -0.6% over the last 3months. Ajinomoto-last 12/4wksvalue+1.3%/+2.5%:FrozenDumplings valuegrowthremained strong (+9%) over the last 4wks, and Frozen Handheld Entrees seem recoveredfrom last autumn's supply chain disruption (-3%). While Frozen Rice and Frozen CompleteMeals were still impacted by the mid-February product recall, volume declines moderatedto -8%/-3% over the last 4 wk from -25%/-10% in March. We expect Q1 sell-in (and Aji'sP&L impact) to exceed this level as the channel rebuilds inventory. Yakult-last 12/4wks value +1.6%/+1.8%: growth continued at LSD as a result ofproduction capacity constraints which we expect to continue until late Q4 FY3/27 whentheir new production site is commissioned. Yakult's volume and value growth continuedto outstrip Activia (12/4 wks value -9.5%/-9.8%), and Yakult's value share relative toDanone'sActiviabrandnowsitsat89% Nissin Outperform and with a Target Price of 4,600 (model link). Toyo Suisan Market-Performand increasedour Target Priceto11,700 from?10,500.We haveupdated our estimatesto reflect the strong Q4 earnings result (link to note), ongoing strong momentum in the US Noodles and rolling forward theEBITDA base by a quarter. We maintain our 7.9x EV/EBITDA multiple (model link) KikkomanMarket-PerformwithaTargetPriceof￥1,55opershare(modellink) Ajinomoto Outperform with a Target Price of?6,70o per share (model link). Yakult Outperform with a Target Priceof ?3,700 per share (model link) Complete Meal salesvolume declining 8%& 3%, respectively and valuegrowthrecovered slightlyoverthelast month outperform the overall market 25% of Nissin value is generated by premium variants. Nissin's sales covered by Nielsen, and Premium variants over the last 4 weeks, offset by the weak volume withprice increase continuing to be reflected too small to be captured separatelyin the Nielsen data continued on the back of price hike from July EXHIBIT 12: Nissin and Toyo Suisan's volume share wererelatively stable in the last 3 months center in last July, but the expansion has been stalled over the last 3 months followed by Asian Sauce at c. 25%.This section does not include categories sold by Kikkoman's JFC Wholesale business (seenext section). months (LTM). has been increasing over the last 3 months % and the Nielsen read for the category is meaningful, in our view. represented in Nielsen data last monthand overall jFC valuegrowth momentumcontinued ValueSplit byKeyCategories accounting for just over 50% of value over the last twelve months (LTM), and Ajinomoto's key offerings in the category includeDumplings and Potstickers. remained strong and Frozen Rice and Complete Mealdecline due to the recall has been moderating ASP while others lowered or maintained theirASP have been increasing over the l