小鹏汽车：Q1毛利率保持韧性；GX车型前景乐观

Price Target XPeng: Q1 Resilient gross margin; Bullish tone on GX Q1 gross margin more resilient than expected, though back in net loss.XPeng reportedQ1 revenue of RMB 13.0bn (-17.6% yoy and -41.4% qoq), primarily due to weaker salesvolume (-33.3% yoy and -46.1% qoq). ASP improved to 175k, +14.8% yoy and +7.0% qoq,driven by higher contribution by X9 and lower mix of MONA M03. Overall gross margin heldresilient at 20.6%, vs. 15.6% in Q1 25 and 21.3% in Q4 25, underpinned by steady vehiclemargin (12.1%, vs. 10.5% in Q1 25 and 13.0% in Q4 25). The yoy improvement in vehiclemargin was driven by cost reduction efforts (e.g. the switchover to Turing chips) and morefavorable product mix as mentioned above, while the QoQ decline was mainly due to higherraw material costs for memory chips and batteries. Q1 26 R&D expenses reached RMB 2.9bn,+46.8% yoy and flat qoq, due to ongoing model development and AI investment, while SG&Aas a % of revenue held relatively steady. Overall Opex ratio increased to 36.8% vs 24.8% in Q125 and 25.5% in Q4 25, due to higher R&D investment. As a result, Q1 26 swung back into netloss again after achieving net profit first ever in Q4 25, recording a RMB1.8bn loss, implying-13.7% net margin, vs. -4.2% in Q1 25 and 1.7% in Q4 25. Q2 guidance positive; Management sets bullish tone on GX.The company guidedto 100-106k deliveries for Q2, -3% to +3% yoy and +60% to 69% qoq. The guidanceimplies May-June monthly deliveries of 34.5-37.5k units (vs. 31k in April), indicating steadyimprovement. We expect this to be driven by the new GX launch and the MONA M03 facelift. GX, XPeng’s flagship six-seater SUV launched on May 20th, is priced from RMB 269.8k,which is RMB 130k below the RMB 399.8k pre-sale price, supporting strong initial demand(c.25k orders within 12 hours). Notably, >80% of initial orders were for the ultra-flagshiptrim priced above RMB 350k, which is encouraging, while demand for EREV variants is alsopicking up. With GX BEV trim wait times exceeding 30 weeks, capacity is being ramped toc.7k units/month. That said, we remain mindful of potential cannibalization (such as to X9) anddemand sustainability, which had been a problem for XPeng’s higher-end vehicles in the past.Meanwhile, the MONA M03 facelift (launched April 2nd ) lifted monthly sales to >13k units fromc.7k in Q1. Management guided for stable c.20% gross margin in Q2 and FY, supported by mix,partially offset by rising BOM costs. Ambitious overseas expansion roadmap.Export accounted for c.18% of total volume in Q1, more than doubling from c.8%last year, and management guiding for 20% revenue contributon from international in Q2, and 50% within 5 years. Managementplans to accelerate globalization from 2027, with four global models to be launched in 2H, alongside systematic investmentsin hardware, AI software, distribution channels, local charging infrastructure, and continued ramp-up of localized productioncapacity. EXHIBIT 4:XPeng sales was primarily contributed byMONA M03, G6, X9 and P7+, representing 33%, 20%,15% and 14% of the sales mix in Q1 26 EXHIBIT 6:Gross margin reached 20.6% (vs. 15.6% in Q125 and 21.3% in Q4 25) and vehicle margin was 12.1%(vs. 10.5% in Q1 25 and 13.0% in Q4 25) EXHIBIT 7:Loss from operations stood at RMB -1.9bn, or-14.4% EBIT margin, vs. -6.6% in Q1 25 and -0.2% in Q425 EXHIBIT 11:Based on overseas registrations, Europe andASEAN contributed 58% and 41%, respectively, in Q1 26,vs 66% and 33%, respectively, in Q4 25 EXHIBIT 10:XPeng’s export grew to 18.4% of salesvolume mix in Q1 26, higher vs. 8.1% in Q1 25 and 13.2%in Q4 25 INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate XPeng Market-Perform with PT forXPEV.US to US$22.00(unchanged)and for9868.HK at HK$86.00(unchanged),based on 1-yr forward 1x EV/sales(unchanged). BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY XPeng Inc We value XPeng primarily using forward EV/sales multiples, given losses which