村田制作所（6981）：对尖端MLCC产品的投资效率极高

Shoji SatoEquity AnalystShoji.Sato@morganstanleymufg.com Investment in Cutting-edgeMLCC Products is HighlyEfficient Sota HarashimaEquity AnalystSota.Harashima@morganstanleymufg.com President Nakajima said that the firm expects medium/long-termdemand for cutting-edge MLCC products to expand not only inthe AI/DC field but also for AI edge devices. Murata Manufacturing (6981.T, 6981 JT) Electronic Components|Japan Stock RatingOverweightIndustry ViewIn-LinePrice target¥5,100Shr price, close (May 26, 2026)¥8,077Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)¥15,042.3Avg daily trading value (bn)¥26.3 Key Takeaways The firm doesn't plan to raise prices for existing MLCC products, but still expectsASP to keep rising and the mix to continue improving as sales of high-ASPcutting-edge products grow. The firm is investing an additional ¥80bn for MLCC capacity expansion; note thatinvestment in additional processes for cutting-edge products is highly efficient. Murata Manufacturing is capable of supplying both MLCCs and silicon capacitorsfor package substrates, both as embedded applications and for mounting. Below we summarize the presentation by President Norio Nakajima at the sell-sideanalyst small meeting held at 10am on May 27. (1) The firm expects the share of AI/DC-related sales in MLCC sales to rise from 10-15% in F3/26 to 20-25% in F3/27, with AI/DC-related MLCC sales projected toincrease 85-90% YoY. (2) For AI/DC applications, the total capacitance required for MLCCs is increasingsubstantially, driving rapid demand growth for cutting-edge, compact, high-capacitance MLCCs. Murata Manufacturing has been expanding MLCC productioncapacity at an annual rate of 10%, but is also making an additional ¥80bn in capex toincrease output of cutting-edge MLCCs for AI/DC applications. (3) The additional ¥80bn investment is mainly for additional processes for cutting-edge products, and investment efficiency is extremely high compared with theongoing investment to increase production capacity by 10% annually. The firmexpects MLCC sales growth to accelerate from 13% YoY in F3/27 to 20–25% YoY inF3/28, mainly driven by increased sales of cutting-edge products. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. (4) Murata Manufacturing has not raised prices on existing MLCC products and doesnot plan to do so going forward. However, the firm expects the ASP to continuerising given that (1) launches of new cutting-edge products will continue, andcutting-edge products are priced higher than existing products and (2) prices ofexisting products are becoming less likely to decline, not only in AI/DC but also inother applications.(See section 2 for points (5) and (6).) For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. (5) Efforts to embed capacitors in GPU/TPU package substrates have been underway formore than 10 years, but there are many challenges, including connection reliability.Murata Manufacturing can supply both MLCCs and silicon capacitors for embeddedapplications and for mounting on package substrates. (6) Cutting-edge MLCCs are supplied mainly for AI/DC applications, but the firm expectsdemand for AI edge devices to increase over the medium term. AI edge devices requirelarge volumes of compact, high-capacitance MLCCs, and thus the firm sees an ongoingincrease in demand for cutting-edge MLCCs. Valuation Methodology and Risks Murata Manufacturing (6981.T) Derived from our base case and a DCF model, with the following assumptions: 2.2% risk-freerate, 1.09 equity beta, 3.7% risk premium, yielding 6.2% WACC; zero growth from F3/36. Risks to Upside MetroCirc, MLCCs, and RF devices sales could outstrip our forecasts if high-end smartphonedemand is stronger than we envision. Risks to Downside nSince Murata's core products are in all sorts of electronic devices, demand and unitprices could fluctuate widely due to changes in the global economy.nIf demand for high-end smartphones is weaker than we envision.nWe estimate a ¥1/$ change impacts OP by ¥4.5bn. Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared by Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd. and its affiliates (collectively, "Morgan Stanley").For important disclosures, stock price charts and equity rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report, please see the Morgan Stanley