MLCC生产：基于坚实盈利支撑维持村田和TDK的买入评级

and TDK on solid earnings supportPrice Objective Change Impactoffront-loadedordersbecameevidentinJan-Mar JapanElectronics March2026 declined 9% YoY and increased 14% MoM.While orders for Al serverscontinue to expand, front-loaded orders likely persisted in the IT equipment market, Masashi Kubota >>Research AnalystBofAS Japan reflecting concerns over future price increases and material shortages. As a result,product mix rather deteriorated. The overall ASP in March declined 23% YoY, marking asignificant decline for three consecutive months. Meanwhile, production volumeincreased 18% YoY and 12% MoM, which we believe contributed to higher utilizationrates at each company.S/D balance to improve on rising high-end demand masashi.kubota@bofa.comHazel Xue >Research AnalystBofAS Japan hazel.xue@bofa.com production value from Apr to Jun onward is highly likely to improve. We think a reactionary decline from front-loaded orders, mainly for the IT equipment market, couldoccur. However, production volume of small, high-capacitance and high-voltage productsfor Al servers is increasing, and utilization rates are rising, particularly in front-endprocesses. With tightening supply demand balance, price trends should also stabilize.MaintainBuyonMurataMfgandTDK Among the three domestic MLCC makers, we maintain Buy on Murata Mfg (6981)andTDK (6762).Through mix improvement and stabilization in MLCC ASP, we expect Murata Mfg profitability to show steady improvement.For TDK, in addition to solid batteryperformance and expansion in HDD-related components, MLCC and inductor demand forAl servers should expand from 2H onward.Taiyo Yuden share price reflects excessive expectations For Taiyo Yuden (6976), we raise our earnings forecasts in line with expanding MLCC orders as shown in Exhibit 6, and raise our price objective (PO) from ￥3,250 to ￥3,800.However, we reiterate our Underperform rating.The reasons are (1) we believeexcessive expectations for MLCC price increases are reflected in the share price, asdomestic MLCC makers deny price hikes based solely on supply/demand, and (2) TaiyoYuden's MLCC operating profit (OP) margin remains in the single digits owing to weakproductivity. Our new PO implies significant downside from the current share price, butgiven the company's current profitability, we judge this to be an appropriate level. and Industry S/D: Supply/Demand MLCC: Multi-layer Ceramic Capacitor Our new PO of ￥3,800 is based on a P/E of 18x our FY3/28 EPS estimate. Consideringthe outlook for expanding MLCC orders, we raise the multiple from the previous 16x tothe historical average level. However, MLCC profitability remains at a low single-digitlevel owing to weak productivity,making it difficult to assign a multiple above thestrong in some areas, such increases are not achievable at present. We see the shares ashighly overvalued at current price. TDK (6762/TTDKF/TTDKY) Our PO for TDK is ￥3,500 ($22.58/ADR). The PO is based on a P/E of 25x our FY3/28 five-year P/E range of 22x. In addition to (1) the medium-term to long-term expansionpotential of the battery business, (2) profitability upside in passive components centeredon automotive applications, and (3)an improving profitability outlook formagneticapplication products, expansion in Al-related businesses has become increasinglysufficiently achievable. Risks to achieving our PO are (1) an accelerated slowdown ingrowth of the battery business, (2) inventory buildup and a slowdown in componentdemand in the HDD market, and (3) delays in the pace of profit expansion in the sensorbusiness, mainly for automotive applications. Our PO for Taiyo Yuden is ￥3,800. The PO is based on a P/E of 18x our FY3/28 estimate. This level is in line with the company's 10-year historical average P/E. While earnings areon an improving trend supported by better MLCC utilization, profitability remains at alow level due to the burden of fixed costs and weak productivity. Given the lack ofprospects for a significant improvement in profitability from next fiscal year onward, weexpect the share price to continue trading near its historical average P/E level for thetime being. Upside risks to our PO are (1) a stronger-than-expected recovery in demandfor IT-related devices, including Al servers and Al-enabled PCs, and (2) an acceleration inthe pace of earnings improvement in the inductors and integrated modules and devicesbusinesses. On the other hand, downside risks are (1) a deterioration in the MLCC supplysuch as smartphones, (2) continued deterioration in profitability in the integratedmodules and devices business, particularly for the China smartphone market, and (3) yenappreciation exceeding our assumptions. MurataMfg(6981/MRAAF)Murata Mfg's price objective (PO) is ￥6,200. The base for our PO calculation is a P/E of 30x our FY3/28 estimate.This is about 10% above the upper end of the past 10-yearrange of 28x. We apply a P/E above the historical range upper limit in light of the