Salesforce 1Q27：若剔除Informatica则本季度表现尚可，但业绩指引疲软——仍需实际业绩证明

+19173448506mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com +1917344 8316firoz.vallj@bernsteinsg.com +1917344 8342shelly.tang@bernsteinsg.com Salesforce 1Q27: A decent quarter if we exclude Informatica butweak guide - continues to be a show-me story Salesforce delivereda decent 1Q27with some tailwindfrom Informatica, but 2Qguidance of10% CC growth was on the weaker side compared to street expectations,considering over4pts of contribution from Informatica and Agentforce momentum which likely will contributeover 2pts of growth. As a result, the stock is slightly in the red in the aftermarket. Close Date27May 2026CRM Close Price (USD)177.51Price Target (USD)173.00Upside/(Downside)(3)%52-WeekRange278.81/163.52SPX7,520.36FYEJanDiv Yield1.0%Market Cap (USD) (M)145,213EV (USD) (M) While it is good to see Agentforce ARR ramping to $1.2B ARR this quarter (up 205% Y/Y),the non-Al part of the core business is slowing with some drag from Marketing / CommerceandTableau,andtheAlrevenuesarestilltoosmall tofullyoffsettheslow-down.Whilemanagement expressed increasing confidence around 2H acceleration, untilit shows up inthenumbersthiswillremainashow-mestoryandquestions overwhetherthedecelerationis This quarter, Salesforce bought back $27.1B worth of shares, including $25B under the$50B buyback program announced in February. We view this initiative as positive, but we arestill concerned about the potential of large acquisitions in the nearfuture given its historyOn the other hand, if CRM can deliver and maintain stability in revenue growth and staydisciplined with acquisitions, at this valuation investors may decide the risk-reward could lookincreasingly attractive. With not a lot of clarity, we choose to remain Underperform. InvestmentImplications Salesforce (CRM, PT $173,Underperform):CRM is amature business in a mature andcompetitive market.Wethink Agentforce is still in early stage of adoption,and therefore not anear-termdriver of re-acceleration,especially as weakness continues in the core. Large M&Aremains a concern.The result is limited upside and meaningful downside risk.We loweredour pricetarget from $194 to $177 as we roll forward our model and lowered our valuationmultiple (P/FE)from 13xto11.5x reflecting step-down in peer group valuationAdjustedEPSF26AF27EF28EFinancialsF26AF27EF28E Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. slightly ahead of consensus at 12% CC, driven by better than expected contribution from Informatica acquisition.Informaticacontributed a 4.5 pts growth contribution as compared to guidance of a 4pts of contribution). Agentforce ARR grew 205% Y/Y to $1.2B this quarter, contributing roughly another 2pts of growth. The remaining 6pts or so of growth came from the corecore business continues to decelerate limiting the ability of Agentforceto drive meaningful acceleration and creates concerns,we believe, for investors. 4).Revenue guidance was slightly below consensus,and the10% CC growth guidance includes over 4pts of Informaticacontribution which suggests that the organic growth will not accelerate next quarter and in fact may decelerate a little furtherconsidering the continued ramping of Agentforce. As management is pointing to revenue acceleration in 2H (as they guide to7-8% organic FY CC growth) and investors are looking for proof of that inflection point, this guidance did not provide that clarityIt in fact, it raises the question of whether any acceleration in the back /2 of the year is driven by delays in revenue recognition is slowingwithsomedragfromMarketing/CommerceandTableau,and theAl revenuesare stilltoosmall tofullyoffsettheslow-down.While management expressed increasing confidence around 2Hacceleration, until it shows up in the numbers thiswill remain a show-me story. in February. We view this initiative as positive, but we are stll concerned about management potentially layering in meaningfulacquisitions to try to drive growth reacceleration and/or make Agentforce more powerful given its acquisitive history. On theother hand, we wonder if the company can deliver and continue to deliver stabile revenue growth and stay disciplined withacquisitions, some investors, at this valuation, may decide if the risk-reward could look attractive. At this point with not a lot ofclarity, we choose to remain Underperform. CHANGEIN REPORTING Note that starting this quarter(1QFY27), management has resegmented its revenue reporting (Exhibit 8), removing theinfrastructure focused Data 360, Platform & Other. The reason, we believe, is that with the new revenues from Agentforce andrevenues. However, it is sad to lose the information on individual clouds starting in FY28 (management will still provide olddisclosures throughout FY27)and given the reshuffling it would be hard to map the historical to new reporting structure. Webelieve that this may be more in-line with changing go-to-market the decrease in disclosures and the loss of the historical trendlines will make it more difficult for the stree