2Q25表现疲软，但指引保持不变

FY24AFY25EFY26EFY27E13,57714,31215,24916,363(5.4)5.46.57.31,965.51,965.52,187.62,441.21,305.51,372.01,569.51,839.20.470.480.540.6419.43.612.617.210.510.19.07.71.51.61.41.312.74.95.56.514.815.817.318.37.92.35.17.0 Target PriceHK$7.20(Previous TPHK$7.20)Up/Downside34.8%Current PriceHK$5.34China Consumer DiscretionaryWalter WOO(852) 3761 8776walterwoo@cmbi.com.hkStock DataMkt Cap (HK$ mn)14,070.1Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn)52w High/Low (HK$)6.98/4.14Total Issued Shares (mn)Source: FactSetShareholding StructureMr Ding Shui Po & FamilyJPMorgan Chase & CoSource: HKExShare PerformanceAbsoluteRelative-3.8%13.4%-6.0%-25.1%Source: FactSet12-mth Price PerformanceSource: FactSetRecent Reports:Anta Sports (2020 HK)-Anta brand’smiss offset by other brands’ beat(16Jul25)Li Ning (2331 HK)-2Q25 roughly inlineand transition in progress(15Jul25)Topsports (6110 HK)-Prudent guidancebut strong cash flow & yield(23May25)Xtep(1368HK)-Inline 1Q25 results anda moderate outlook(18Apr25)Anta Sports (2020 HK)-Acquisition ofJack Wolfskin finally announced(14Apr25)Li Ning (2331 HK)-Conservativeguidance but quite expected(31Mar25) 72.02634.849.2%4.6%1-mth-5.6%3-mth-2.6%6-mth 1 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE2Q25 retail sales missed CMBI est., but on track with the Company’s guidanceand the market view has already been cautious since Jun 2025.Xtep reported aLSD retail sales growth in2Q25, slightly below CMBI est. of 6%, also slowingdownfrom the MSD in 1Q25, butwe believethis is not totally a surprise given the weakindustry trend in Jun 2025. In fact, theLSD growth is still inline with management’sFY25E guidance (about LSD to MSD retail sales growth for Xtep core brand, deducedby the positive group-level sales growth and 30%-40% Saucony sales growth). Theslight miss was mostly due to: 1) intense industry competition (some brands didprovide more discounts to clearinventory) and 2) weaker-than-expected e-commercesales growth (including the 618 Festival). By channel, e-commerce sales growthwasstill at around 10% while offlinesales growthwas slower (kids growth continued tooutperformadults). By product category, runningwasstill growing fast (10%+) andoutperformed lifestyle and others.Xtep’s inventory level and retail discounts remained fairly healthy in 2Q25.Inventory to sales ratio was at about 4 to 4.5 months in 2Q25,upmildly both QoQand YoY vs 4 months in 1Q25 and 2Q24. But this is still a very healthy and industry-leadinglevel, in our view. Retail discountswerestill at 25% to 30% off in 2Q25, flattishQoQ vs 1Q25but deepened YoY by 2-3ppt vs 25% off in 2Q24. Thanks to this healthyand controllable inventory condition, management is still expecting the inventory tosales ratio and retail discounts to stay stable for FY25E, at around 4 to 4.5 monthsand 25% to 30% off.Retail sales growth in Jul 2025MTD has improved vs 2Q25.According tomanagement, retail sales growth forXtep brandhas already accelerated in Jul 2025MTD, with better e-commerce sales, driven by increased summer demand and morepromotional activities. Saucony brandhasalsore-acceleratedgrowthin Jul 2025MTD, but more supported by offlineSSSG and store openings, because of the shiftin e-commerce business strategy in FY25E (some lower-priced product offeringshave beenremoved and less discounts given).TheDTC transformation is still on-going,as planned.The Company willrepurchase 100to 200 stores in 4Q25E (unchanged)and 300 to 400 stores(previously mentioned 200 to 400) in FY26E. The capex needed for this repurchaseis about RMB 400mn and will all be funded by internal cash flow. The Company isalso ready to upgrade its management system for products and members, as theseare the key to boost efficiency under the DTC model. PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEEarnings revisionFigure1: Earnings revisionRMB mnFY25ERevenue14,312Gross profit6,266EBIT1,966Net profit att.1,372Diluted EPS (RMB)0.483Gross margin43.8%EBIT margin13.7%Net profit att. margin9.6%Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimatesFigure2: CMBIGM estimates vs consensusRMB mnFY25ERevenue14,312Gross profit6,266EBIT1,966Net profit att.1,372Diluted EPS (RMB)0.483Gross margin43.8%EBIT margin13.7%Net profit att. margin9.6%Source: Company data,Bloomberg,CMBIGM estimates PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEOperating numbersFigure3: Sportswear brands sales growth trendSource:Company data, CMBIGM estimates, *Nike's year end is in May (e.g. 4Q18 calendar year = 2Q19 fiscal year = Sep-Nov2018)Operating numbers1Q222Q22Nike China sales-8%-20%Adidas China sales-35%-35%Anta brand's SSSGAnta brand's retail sales+ve High-teens-ve MSD+ve MSDCore brand+ve Mid-teens-ve Low-teens+ve LSDKids20%-25%+ve LSD+ve HSDOnlineOver 30%+ve HSD+ve HSDFILA brand's retail sales+ve MSD-ve HSD+ve Low-teensClassic/ Core brand-ve MSD-ve DD-ve LSDKids+ve Mid-teens+ve HSD+ve LSDFusionOver 20%-ve MSD+ve LSDOnlineOver 20%+ve MSD Over 65%Over 40%Over 40%60%