贵州川恒（002895 CH）：在硫磺通胀压力下保持韧性

Guizhou Chanhen (002895 CH) partially offset sulphur inflation; dividend supports valuation+...leadingtoresiliencein2026e,despite1Q26miss 49.0050.30SHARE PRICE (CNY)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE32.31+51.7%(as of 21 May 2026)MARKET DATA growth to be primary driven by the phosphate rock capacity expansion of 300ktpa, whichcould contribute RMB100m-plus in net profit. Meanwhile, following the commissioningof its hydrofluoric acid (HF) capacity, we estimate that HF output could increase by12kt in 2026e. As rising sulphur prices have increased the cost of sulphur-based HFand driven sustained price increases,we expect Chanhen's HF to achievebothvolume and margin expansion this year as a by-product of its phosphoric acid production.In the medium term, we believe HF output could continue to increase in line withphosphoricacidexpansion,providingastablemedium-tolong-termprofitcontribution. high sulphur prices, we believe Chanhen's monoammonium phosphate (MAP)andmerchantphosphoricacidfaceseverecostpressuresin2o26e.Furthermore,webelieve that China may tighten its phosphoric acid export business due to tightsulphur supply,which will put pressure on the company's export profits in 2026e.That said, we think Chanhen's key advantage lies in its strong product mix flexibility,allowing it to switch production among different phosphate chemical products. WeexpectChanhentofurtherincreaseoutputfromhighermarginmonocalciumphosphate(MCP) and purified phosphoric acid to partially offset profitability pressure in merchantphosphoric acid and MAP caused by higher sulphur costs. Stable2026ewithanattractive dividend.Although 1Q26 net profit declined y-0-y,missing our expectations, due to the sharp increase in sulphur prices and the laggedpass-through to product AsPs,webelievea subsequentvolumeramp-upinphosphaterock and HF,togetherwith a shifttowardhighermargin products,shouldhelp offsetcost inflation.As aresult, we expect Chanhen's 2026e earnings to remain broadlyflaty-o-y. In 2027e, if the industry normalises with easing cost pressure post the MiddleEast conflict, we believe it could return to a normal growth trajectory. And we estimatea 75%dividend payout in2026emakes its valuation more attractive afterthe recentshare price correction due to concerns on cost pressure. Yi Ru*(Reg.No.S1700520120001)Head, A-share Petrochem&New Materials ResearchHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimitedyi.ru@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662008 Jill Huang* (Reg.No.S1700524120002)Analyst, A-share Petrochemical and New MaterialsHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedjill.q.huang@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662024 Maintain Buy and lower target price. We continue to use a PB-ROE methodologyto value the stock.Based on our COE assumption of 9.65% (unchanged) and our2027eROEestimateof21%(from22%),wederiveatargetPBmultipleof3.5x(from3.6x). Based on our 2027e BVPS estimate of RMB13.94 (from RMB13.95), we arriveat our target price of RMB49.00 (from RMB50.30), which implies c52% upside fromthe current share price.The company's expanding phosphate rock capacity,flexibleproduct mix optimisation to maximise profitability,sustained strength in its core MCPbusiness and generous dividend policy continue to reinforce its long-term investmentappeal. We, therefore, maintain our Buy rating. See key downside risks on page 6. *Employedbyanon-US afliateofHSBC Securities (USA Inc andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulations HSBCFundingtheFutureSurvey Sentiment, Al and Private Credit Click to view Issuer of report: HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Estimatechanges Chanhen's 1Q26 net profit declined 7% y-o-y, missing our expectations due to a sharp rise insulphurpricesandthefailureofthesepriceincreasestobepromptlyreflectedinproductASPsvolume growth in phosphate rock and hydrofluoric acid (HF) and 2) a shift toward higher marginproducts that could partially offset cost inflation. Therefore, we fine-tune our 2026-27e net profitestimatesafterraisingourrevenueestimatesforvolumegrowthandloweringourGPMestimatesdue to concerns overthe rising cost of sulphurand sulfuric acid. Our2026-28e netprofit estimates arebelow consensusas we thinkthemarkethas lagged inreflecting the margin pressure outlook,given the continued elevated costs for sulphur andsulfuric acid. The shares have declined 21% since March 2026 (CSI 300 up2% over the sameperiod) as the market factored in the weaker profit margin outlook.Therefore, it is unlikely to seeade-ratingifconsensuslowersestimates,inourview Valuationand risks WecontinuetouseaPB-ROEmethodologytovaluethestock.BasedonourCOEassumptionof 9.65% (unchanged)and our2027eROEestimate of 21% (from22%), wederiveatargetPBmultipleof3.5x(from3.6x).Basedonour2027eBVPSestimateofRMB13.94(fromRMB13.95), wearrive at our target price of RMB49.00 (from RMB50.30), which i