退煤背景下电力系统现代化融资：转型信贷在东南亚的作用

Financing theModernisation of Power The role of transition credits in INTERNATIONAL ENERGY The IEA examines thefull spectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy, IEAAccessioncountries: IEAMember AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFrance ChileColombiaCosta RicaBrazil IEAAssociationcountries: ArgentinaChinaEgyptIndia This publication, as well asany dataand map includedherein,are without prejudiceto the status of orsovereignty over any territory, The EuropeanCommission also Abstract Coalis a central component of power systems in Southeast Asia,evenasgovernments have committed to reducing coal‑related emissions. Rapidelectricity demand growth, alongside coal’s role in system adequacy, reliabilityandenergy security,complicates efforts to accelerate coal transitions. Againstthis backdrop,new approaches are being explored to supportcoaltransitions while maintaining secure and reliable power systems.Thisreportexamines the potential role of transition credits as a market‑basedinstrument to support coal transitions in Southeast Asia. It analysesthe scale ofemissionsfrom existing coal fleets,options to reduce emissions from Byexamining these issues from a power system,investment and carbonmarkets perspective, the report aims to provide a clearer understanding of coaltransition strategies and outlines recommendations for countries that may choose Acknowledgements, contributors This report was prepared by the Energy Investment Unit in the Office of the ChiefEnergyEconomist(OCEE)Division of the Directorate of Sustainability,Technology and Outlooks (STO) at the International Energy Agency (IEA), withimportant inputs by the Power Sector Unit in the Energy Modelling Office, Energy Other principal authors of the report were:Brent WannerandYasmine Arsalane(IEA, power sector modelling),Natalie Kauf(IEA, regional analysis), andKobenCalhoun(Renew Energi, transition credits). Erin Crumwas the copy editor. The report also benefited from input provided by numerous IEA colleagues, inparticular Sue-Ern Tan, Cecilia Tam, Tanguy de Bienassis, Ryota Taniguchi, RyoYamasaki, Carlos Fernández Alvarez and Peter Zeniewski. Michael Waldronprovidedprecious inputs on Indonesia.Additional thanks go to the IEA’s This report builds on the IEA’s extensive work on coal transitions. This includesthe2022 Coal in Net Zero Transitions special reportand the IEA’s supporting rolein initiatives such asTransition Credits Coalition (TRACTION),convened by theMonetaryAuthority of Singapore.The report also benefited from insightful This report benefited from the support of the Rockefeller Foundation and GenZero.The findings and conclusions contained within are those of the IEA and do not Consultations This report also builds on consultations with more than 20 key stakeholders fromacross the world, including financial institutions, experts on carbon markets andstandards,and government representatives from potential host and buyer Eric FranciaACENDavid UngarCarbon Finance LaboratoryRandall Spalding-FecherCarbon LimitsSaurabh JoshiClimate Impact XLawrence AngClimate Smart VenturesHiroki KinebuchiDiamond Generating Asia (DGA)Simon FellermeyerFederal Office for the Environment, SwitzerlandHugh SalwayGold StandardVikash TalyanGold StandardJoan Miquel CarrilloInter-American Development BankBjörn FondénInternational Emissions Trading AssociationYannick Träris-KahrimanKliK FoundationHikari YonezawaMitsubishi CorporationMizuhiko FujieMizuho Financial GroupMiguel RescalvoNeyenAxel MichaelowaPerspectives Climate GroupTyeler MatsuoRocky Mountain Institute (RMI)David LoneRMIMicaela ZabaloSouth PoleFrédéric Gagnon-LebrunThe Rockefeller FoundationDavid NewellSwedish Energy AgencyArjon ValenciaThe Independent Electricity Market Operator of thePhilippines Inc.Mandy RambharosVerraIan KuwaharaVerra Peer reviewers Many international experts provided input and reviewed drafts of the report. Theircomments and suggestions were of great value. They include (in alphabetical Table of contents Executive summary.................................................................................................................. 8Chapter 1. The role of coal in power systems..................................................................... 14Overview ............................................................................................................................... 14Context .................................................................................................................................. 16Chapter 2. Coal transition strategies ................................................................................... 24Levers for reducing emissions from existing coal plants ...................................................... 24Scaling up alternative sources of electricity.....................................