中国-非洲经济公报 2026年版

2026 EDITION BY MENGDI YUE, TERRENCE KAIRIZA, YIYUAN QI AND ABBI KEDIR Mengdi Yueis a Research Fellow for the energy and climateworkstream at the Boston University Global Development PolicyCenter. She earned her master’s degree in international relations andinternational economics from the Johns Hopkins University School ofAdvanced International Studies (SAIS). She previously worked as anacademic researcher at International Institute of Green Finance (IIGF) Terrence Kairizais a Lecturer in the Department of Economics atBindura University of Science Education and a Research Fellow atthe African Economic Research Consortium. His research focuses ondevelopment economics, with particular interests in gender, climatechange adaptation, food security, agriculture, health, and industrial Yiyuan Qiis a former Research Fellow at Boston University GlobalDevelopment Policy Center, where she was the interim lead for the DataAnalysis for Transparency and Accountability (D.A.T.A.) workstream.She supported the GDP Center’s public-facing data tools that trackChinese loans and investments across energy and infrastructure sectors,making complex financial flows accessible and actionable for researchers, Abbi M. Kediris the Interim Executive Director and the Director ofResearch at the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC). Inaddition to long years of services in UK academia, he has experienceworking both in government and international organizations, suchas the United Nations as well as consulting experience with theWorld Bank and African Development Bank. He published more Cover: Cape Town, South Africa. Photo by Benjamin le Roux via Unsplash. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION TRENDS IN CHINA-AFRICA TRADE TRENDS IN CHINA’S FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT TO AFRICA TRENDS IN CHINA’S LENDING AND DEVELOPMENT FINANCE TO AFRICA REFERENCES In 2024, China’s economic relationship with African countries featured record-high tradevalues, revival of foreign direct investment (FDI) from the COVID-19 pandemic and a dramatic The 2026 edition of the China-Africa Economic Bulletin traces China-Africa engagementacross three domains—trade, investment and lending and development finance—focusing onupdates since the last edition with evidence through 2022 (Moses et al. 2024). The bulletinaims to provide a data-driven snapshot of trends and emerging patterns that merit further Key findings: •In 2024, Africa’s trade with China reached a record value of $275 billion, including$182 billion in imports (6.3% of GDP) and $93 billion in exports (3.2% of GDP). Thatsame year, China accounted for 16 percent of Africa’s total exports and 28 percent of •The top transition mineral categories (including ores, concentrates and processedproducts) imported by China from Africa are copper, bauxite and aluminum, •China’s exports of low-carbon technologies (LCTs)1to Africa totaled $9.8 billion in2024, mostly in power generation, energy storage and pollution control. LCT trade is •Chinese FDI in Africa rebounded strongly in 2023 and 2024 following pandemic-eralows. This recent uptick is largely driven by a small number of large projects rather •While Africa’s average ratio of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt to grossnational income remains moderate, net capital flows from China have turned negative,meaning annual repayments now exceed annual new disbursements. Increasing debt •Chinese loan commitments to Africa have declined sharply since 2020, fallingbelow $5 billion annually. During the 2010s, they exceeded World Bank lendingin several years and, after 2020, are broadly comparable to African Development •In 2023, eight African countries and two multilateral African borrowers received13 loans totaling approximately $4.61 billion, followed by six loans worth $2.1billion in 2024. The largest lending volume went to the financial sector, followed by •No new lending to coal, oil or gas projects in Africa has been recorded since 2019.However, lending to non-hydro renewables (solar, wind, nuclear and geothermal)remained small in scale at approximately $1.7 billion combined over 2000-2024. Defined as technologies that emit fewer greenhouse gases during consumption. See Figure Africa’s development agenda is anchored in the United Nations Sustainable DevelopmentGoals and the African Union Agenda 2063. Since 2000, the continent has experienced steadyeconomic growth, but a series of concurrent shocks have posed significant challenges, includingthe COVID-19 pandemic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and, more recently, a globalpullback by the US whose effects fall disproportionately on Africa. Despite these headwinds, Beneath this growth momentum lie structural vulnerabilities that complicate the longer-termoutlook. Africa’s exports remain concentrated in raw and unprocessed commodities, leavingthe continent exposed to price volatility. Rising debt service costs threaten to crowd out the It is against this backdrop that China’s role in Afr