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Hold 22 May 2026 Walmart Inc WMT US WMT.OQ United States Retailing / Department Stores&Broadlines Poise Under Pressure Research Analyst+1-212-250-0590 side expectations of approx.+4.5% which,together with management'sincrementallycautioustoneregardingtheconsumer,weighedonsentimentFurther contributing to investor caution was commentary from itslargestconventional peer signalinganappetite to lower prices which,combined withongoing fuel-price pressure, could limit upside vs. guidance. ResearchAssociate+1-212-250-3165 ResearchAssociate+1-212-250-9179 Despite these headwinds, we credit Walmart for demonstrating the flexibilityembedded withinits businessmodel.The company successfullyabsorbed$175M in higher-than-anticipated fuel costs during the quarter, driving an$250Mfuel headwindfor 2Q,theoutlookwasbroadlyin line withconsensus.E-commerce remains a growth engine, led by Walmart digital +26% andmarketplaceacceleratingtoapprox.+50%,whichhelpeddriveanear30bpsU.S.gross margin expansion (we calculate approx. 11 bps headwind from fuel). In line with our expectation, management maintained FY guidance. With 7,200rollbacks inplace,expandingassortmentsthrough itsmarketplace,proximitytocustomers via its extensive store network,and continued omnichannel strength,we believe WMT is well-positioned to execute on its strategy, even within avaluation. Bulls pointed to: 1) US comp would have accelerated absent 100 bps MFPimpact; 2) WMT historically performs well when in difficult macroeconomicperiods; 3) strength in general merchandise, accelerating to +MSD;contributing positively to mix for first time in 18 quarters; 4) tariff refunds notfactored into guidance; signaling potential for additional price investments;and5)alternativerevenuestreamsor commercesolutionsprovideflexibilityfor WMTtomaintainpricegaps and manage operatingmargin. Bears noted: 1) 1Q US comps underwhelming given the stimulus dollars inthemarketplace;2)second consecutive quarter of negativeUS store comps(-1.2% vs. -0.6% in 4Q);: 3) cost pressures could intensify (e.g., fuel, priceinvestments,wages and benefits): 4)increasing food inflation may furtherweakenconsumers'abilitytospend;and5)valuationremainselevatedwithshares trading at 46x 2026 consensus EPSvs.the TTM average of 36x 1Q26:WMT deliveredadj.EPSof$0.66(DB $0.67;Street $0.66;guidance $0.63. $0.65).Walmart U.S.SSS increased +4.1% (DB +4.5%; Street +4.0%) and Sam'sClub SSS grew +3.9% (DB +4.0%; Street +3.6%), with U.S. driven by transactionsand ticket, while Sam's Club saw strength in transactions offset lower ticket.Walmart U.S. gross margin expanded 29 bps (17 bps in 3Q), reflecting inventorymanagement, favorable business mix driven by digital advertising growth andimproved categorymix(generalmerchandiseand groceryoutpacing health andwellness).Sam'sClubgrossmargindecreased12bps(excludingfuel),comparedwith37 bps of contraction in 3Q,as the segment was negatively impacted bydistribution and fulfillment costs tied to delivery growth. (acceleratingfrom4Q).WalmartU.S.grocerySSS grew+MSD (vs.+MSD in4Q)reflecting unit volume growth and share gains.Grocery inflation was ~60 bps invs. +HSD last quarter, driven by +MSD script counts and share gains, offset by~700 bps negative impact from MFP. General merchandise increased +MSD (vs.+LSD in 4Q),driven by strength in fashion and hardlines.Transactions increasedforthesixteenthconsecutivequarter,accelerating100bpssequentially,to+3.0%vs +2.0% in 4Q, while comp ticket decelerated to +1.1% vs +2.6% in 4Q. 2Q26: Our 2Q26 adj. EPS forecast is $0.74 (unchanged; Street $0.75; guidance$0.72-$0.74).OurSSSforecastholdsat+3.5%forWalmartU.S.(Street+3.9%)andat+3.5%forSam's Club (Street +3.9%).Weexpect grossmargin up31 bps(prior up 26 bps), and SG&A dollar growth of +4.6% (prior +5.0%), translating toEBIT margin up 3 bps vs. LY (prior down 6 bps). Net, our WMT adj. EBIT estimateis $8,760M vs. prior $8,610M and Street $8,575M, representing a margin of+4.5% (prior 4.6%; Street 4.7%). 2026: Our 2026 adj. EPS forecast is $2.87 (unchanged; Street $2.92; guidance$2.75-$2.85).Our model assumes a Walmart U.S. comp of +3.2% (prior +3.3%;Street+3.9%)andSam'sClubcompof+3.7%(unchanged;Street+4.1%),inaddition to total company gross margin expansion of 15 bps (prior 17 bps) andSG&A dollar growth of +4.4% (prior +3.9%). 2027: Our $3.17 adj. EPS forecast (unchanged; Street $3.30) is predicated on netsales growth of +4.2% and operating income dollar growth of +9.1%. Price Target of $120 We derive our PT of $120 (unchanged) through a sum of the value of WMT'slargest assets: 1) 40x our 2026 EPS estimate (ex. Flipkart) of $2.87 (unchanged),our multiple is above the 36x one-year average (30x three-year) reflectingcontinued top-line momentum, deeper share gains, consistent operating incomegrowth,and expanding importance across income cohorts and 2)Flipkart basedon 4.5x sales (in-line with the acquisition multiple). Upside risks include additionalshare gains as consumers pursue valu