中国线上美妆：4月市场表现疲软

China Online Beauty: Weak performance across the market inApril inAprilof+1.3%.Ourtrackedbeautycompaniesunderperformedthemarket,delivering-10% GMV growth. However, it's worth keeping in mind that April is a relatively small monthintheyearwithjust4.9%salescontribution. +44 20 7676 7183callum.elliott@bernsteinsg.com +41582 723126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com month,withclearmoderationacrossgloballeaders.L'Orealpostedmodestmomentumwith+3%GMVgrowthand+161bps market sharegains,whileEstee Lauder sawslowergrowthat+4% GMV with+144bps sharegains.LVMH continued to outperformdespitea -7% GMV decline versus -10% for the market, driving +116bps share gains, whileBeiersdorf reported moderate +5% GMV growth supported by its derma and premiumbrands. In contrast, P&G Beauty declined sharply at -17% GMV despite some shareresilience.Asian beauty names remainedunderpressure:Shiseido declined-15%,Proyafell-21%,and Giant Biogenedropped-22%.Unileveralso sawvery weakperformanceat-27%,while Henkel showed modest improvement with+2% GMVgrowth and solid sharegains. +442077625862victoria.nicebernsteinsg.cor +44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com +44 20 7676 6776henry.dennis@bernsteinsg.com Companyperformance: +442076766705simran.cheema@bernsteinsg.com L'Oreal showedmodestperformance in thelatest month,with+3% GMVgrowth and+161bps market share gains, indicating improving short-term momentum. Luxury remainedthekeydriver,withYSLstrong(+37%GMV,+166bpsshare),whileLancomesoftened(-5% GMV) despite solid 3M trends.SkinCeuticals continuedto outperform (+22% GMV,+133bps share). In mass, L'Oreal Paris stabilised (+3% GMV, +44bps share) and Maybellineturned positive (+15% GMV), suggesting early recovery. Eric Chen, CFA+85221232628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com Estee Lauder posted solid butmoderating growth, with+4% GMV in thelastmonth (vs.+21%over3months)and+144bpsmarketsharegains.PerformancewasdrivenbyEsteeLauder (+24% GMV, +157bps share)and Tom Ford (+41% GMV, +45bps share), while LaMer softened (-15% GMV) despite strong 3M trends.Jo Malone (+18%)and The Ordinary(+49%)alsoperformedwell.Overall, momentumremainspositivebut has slowed vs.priorpeaks. Specialist Sales Alix Turner+44 20 7762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com LVMH continues to outperform, with -7% decline in April vs. -10% for total tracked, leadingto +116bps share gain. This has been primarily driven by share gain the the two largestbrands -Dior Beauty (+130bps) and Guerlain (+64bps).Notably, Dior continued to deliverpositive growth in both absoluteand relative basis, driven bystrong volumemomentum.brand portfolio. Beiersdorf delivered moderate growth, with +5% GMV in the last month (vs.+23% over 3months)and+31bpsmarket sharegains.Performance was supported by La Prairie (+26%GMV) and Eucerin (+37%), while Nivea remained weak (-13% GMV) despite slight sharegains. months), while still delivering +64bps market share gains. SK-l remained the key supportwith slight share decline. over 3months),while delivering+39bps market share gains.Weakness wasbroad-basedled by AHC (-52% GMV) and Pond's(-34%), while Dove was also soft (-8%). (vs.-4% over 3 months) and +119bps market share gains.Share gains were driven bySchwarzkopf (+97bps)despite-4%GMVdecline,whileotherbrandsweremorevolatile INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS In EuropeanBeauty:We have Outperform ratings on Beiersdorf (95)and Unilever (66.90/58);and Market-Perform ratingsonHenkel (74.96preference/70ordinary)andL'Oreal (405) For Global Luxury Goods: The trajectory of a recovery in global luxury demand remains uncertain. We find two sources of volatility at play: a) underlyingenvironment; and b)short-term investors playing the sector long and short, amplifying upswings and downswings beyondnaturalnewsflow.Inthiscontextofheighteneduncertainty,wewouldtakeamoredefensiveposturewithacoreexposuretoplain vanilla: 1)We would preferhigh-quality names“at fair value".. Richemont is ourtoppreference dueto strong jewellerymomentumand leadership,with Brunello Cucinelli also favoredfortheir quality and potential mean reversion.It is difficult tobe positiveon Hermes in the short-term, but one weak quarter can be forgiven by the market, if they return to high single digit growth(Hermes:Valuationsalreadydiscounta'Ferrarireset') 2)..as well as the self-help stories with more promising trajectories. LVMH sits between high quality and self-help. Lingeringconcerns around theW&Sturnaroundandthe Arnaultfamily's'Darwinian'successionprocess are counter-balancedbyDior'sBurberry Forward strategy has paid off, in theform of improved brand momentum and stronger full-price sell-through. With asolid foundation in place, the next leg of the turnaround will see focus shifting to driving store productivity, by capitalizing on the team of"old hands"are tackling key issues around the brand, assortmentand retail store network.In China cosmetics, We rate Shiseido Underperform with a Price Target of 1931 JPY