诺和诺德（升级）：为何在我们看来仍是价值陷阱？

Shan Mian+44 20 7676 8981shan.mian@bernsteinsg.com RatingUnderperform Maximilian Brewster+44 20 7550 2193maximilian.brewster@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Specialist Sales NOVOB.DC 200.00 DKK(175.00OLD) Christian Moore+1 917 344 8555christian.moore@bernsteinsg.com Novo Nordisk (UP): why's it still a value trap in our view? Our EPSe are up to 25% < consensus (Bloomberg) due to worse GLP1 injectable sharelosses and deflation (both in the US).Moreover, our bull-bear analysis is negatively skewedand the catalyst cupboard looks bare to us. We also don’t believe that the 10x PE26e impliedby our Price Target is extreme as it implies premia to stocks with deeper moats like Sanofi (O)on a global sales regression analysis. Close Date20 May 2026NOVOB.DC Close Price (DKK)288.40Price Target (DKK)200.00Upside/(Downside)(31)%52-Week Range533.40/224.25EDME1,536.51FYEDecDiv Yield4.0%Market Cap (DKK) (B)1,287.71EV (DKK) (B)1,412.46 What’s changed?Group sales up 6-8% (‘26-36e) due to Wegovy Pill (we’re now > cons in‘26e & ‘27e) and slightly less US GLP-1 deflation. We raise EBIT margins by 45-74bps dueto mix. But our EPS upgrades are front loaded (+13% in “26E, +1% in ‘36e). Our EPS CAGR(26-31e) thus drops by 150bps to 3.4% (vs 8% for EU peers). Why are our new EPSe up to 25% < consensus?(i)we expect worse US share losses toLLY (O; Breen) in injectable GLP-1 obesity and diabetes;(ii)considering the LLY marketingpowerhouse, we now forecast Wegovy Pill to lose majority share in US oral obesity toFoundayo by 2028E(iii)we also expect US GLP1 deflation to drive margin misses. Why’s the risk-reward negatively skewed?Our bull/bear analysis implies +34% upsidevs. -38% downside to ‘35e EBIT (=DCF proxy). In the bull case, the approved portfolio drives13% of the upside and assumes Novo delivers consensus Ozempic, Wegovy, and Rybelsus.We model $12bn Wegovy Pill bull case global sales (=20% US obesity volume share) in ‘35ewhich implies 51% upside to our base case. In the pipeline bull case, we discount consensusCagriSema (+21% upside). Investment Implications How do we calculate our Price Target (PT) and what does it imply?Still via a straightaverage of(i)DCF (WACC 8%, terminal growth 0%; both unchanged ) and(ii)’26-’28e EV/EBITA multiples. Our upgrades have increased both the former (now DKK 201; +5%) andlatter (now DKK 199; +25%) for a new PT of DKK 200. In our EV/EBITA, due to our upgrades,we lighten the discount to EU peers to 30% (vs 36% prior) which is now in-line with Sanofi(O). Our new PT implies a PE26e and PE30e of 10x and 9x respectively for discounts to EUpeers of -34% and -18% respectively due Novo’s < average growth prospects. Removingthe 30% discount in our EV/EBITA would lift our PT to DKK 249. Meanwhile, our reverseengineered DCF implies that the share price discounts 5% perpetuity growth. We think this isextreme considering the semaglutide patent expiries (2026-2032). DETAILS WHAT HAS CHANGED? We are raising our 2026E EPS forecast by 13% and our 2036E EPS by 1%(Exhibit 1).But, despite these changes, our newEPS estimates are 7-25% below Bloomberg consensus and 200-500 bps below on EPS growth (both “26-36E; Exhibit 2 andExhibit 3) apart from in 2033. Two changes in Novo’s markets, and more color on margins at 1Q26E have led us to raise our earnings expectationsin 2026.But these changes “wash-out” across the decade (Exhibit 1). We have left our assumption of -210 bps of cumulativegross margin contraction between 2027-36E unchanged, meaning that our EPS upgrade is “front-loaded”. We haven’t learnedanything that points towards a structural inflection that will materially improve Novo’s long-term growth prospects. RAISING 2026E EPS FORECASTS BY 13%: WHY? Hotter 2026E Revenues but 2036E still Looks Cold •1Q26 results demonstrated better Wegovy Pill revenues than we had anticipated.We had resisted a pre-1Q26update to our estimates given Novo’s commentary around capture rates (% of total prescriptions being captured by IQVIA,the reputable (and independent) data provider) being quite low. But the picture is now much clearer. We now model a 60%capture rate for US Wegovy Pill prescriptions. During the 1Q26 earnings call, Novo said there were >200k US scripts in theweek ending 17thApril (which corresponds to a 60% capture rate). •We now also expect a more benign pricing US environment in 2Q26 than we previously modeled.The USGovernment Bridge program (price cuts in exchange for access to Medicare (>65s) and Medicaid (low-income) patients willnow start in 3Q26, not 2Q26 as we previously modeled. •We now assume yoy blended net price declines of -8% for Ozempic and -35% for Wegovy Injectable for 1Q26 (weassume fewer people will be enticed into the diabetes cash channel markets, so the dilutive impact on blended net priceof patients coming into the market is much smaller). •We maintain our assumption of -10% blended net price declines for 27-36E for Wegovy and -10% declines 28-30E forOzempic. We model -15% deflat