我们将采用这个新的疫苗框架-目前看来还行...

Michael J. Yee * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1535 | michael.yee@jefferies.comDina Elmonshed * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8388 | delmonshed@jefferies.comKyle Yang, CFA * | Equity Associate(212) 284-2260 | kyle.yang@jefferies.comMatthew Hagood * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8293 | mhagood@jefferies.comMadeleine Lee * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8733 | mlee6@jefferies.com$26.39^$30.00 | +14%$170.47 - $23.15FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD)88.5% | 261.28^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwiseEquity ResearchMay 20, 2025 Jenna Li * | Equity Associate(332) 236-6891 | jli9@jefferies.com and there is no strong evidence suggesting the risk based recommendation would be problematicand severely reduce vaccine uptake. See below the options Exhibit 2, which lays out the threerecommendations CDC was weighing for the 2025-2026 season.Right now 74% of the adult population is considered to be at risk and therefore a risk basedrecommendation would apply to the majority of the population. 67-76% of ACIP work group wereleaning towards a risk based recommendation vs universal. This would also align similarly withother countries and WHO, which do not hold universal recommendations. The ACIP committeewas planning to vote on this at the June ACIP meeting currently scheduled for June 25-26.How does this readthrough to combos?Some of this is unknown now, but we note MRNA's combovaccine is only being filed in 50+ years old and the co is actually deprioritizing the combo amongthose who are 18-49 years old.Exhibit 2 - ACIP Proposed COVID Vacccine Policy Recomendation Options.Source: ACIPExhibit 3 - Vaccination Coverage by Age Group.Age Group18-2930-3940-4950-6465-7475+Source: CDC, US Census Data, Jefferies ResearchPlease see important disclosure information on pages 3 - 8 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Estimated USPopulationCDC ReportedVaccinationCoverageImpliedPercent ofTotal Jabs52.6M11%10%46.0M14%11%41.7M17%12%62.5M25%25%34.7M43%24%24.6M46%19% Company DescriptionModernaModerna is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing next-generation medicines for patients based on messenger RNA (mRNA).The company’s mRNA therapeutics are designed to instruct the body’s cells to produce proteins that may have preventative or therapeutic benefits.Moderna has developed a pipeline of more than 20 clinical candidates currently in various phases of clinical development for a broad spectrum ofapplications, including infectious disease prevention, cancer therapy, rare-disease treatment.Company Valuation/RisksModernaOur price target is DCF-based. Risks include clinical, manufacturing, competitive, regulatory, and commercial.Analyst Certification:I, Michael J. Yee, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Dina Elmonshed, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Jenna Li, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Kyle Yang, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Matthew Hagood, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Madeleine Lee, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report rece