西班牙：选定问题

SPAIN SELECTED ISSUES May2026 This paperonSpainwas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund asbackground documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund SPAIN SELECTED ISSUES May4,2026 ApprovedByEuropean Department Prepared ByN. Biljanovska, C. Pizzinelli, Y. Shim, (all EUR),IsabelFigueiras (EUR Summer Intern)andL. Valderrama(MCM) CONTENTS THEFISCALPOLICYOFAUTONOMOUSCOMMUNITIES:ITSMACROECONOMIC A. Introduction___________________________________________________________________________4B. Principles of anEnhancedSubnationalRule in theContext of Spain’sSpendingAreas_7C. Cyclicality of Spending________________________________________________________________11D. Debt Stabilization_____________________________________________________________________17 FIGURES 1. Primary Balance and Debt of Autonomous Communities______________________________52. Public SpendingbyFunctional Divisions_______________________________________________83. Consolidated Revenues and Expenditures ofAutonomous Communities______________94. Spending by Autonomous Communities in Selected Functional Divisions_____________105. Debt Servicing Costs of Autonomous Communities___________________________________116. Cyclical Component of Real SpendingAcross Levels of Government and RealGDP___127. Cyclicality of Spending by Level ofGovernment_______________________________________148. Cyclicality of Spending on Health andEducation in Spain and the EU_________________169. Debt-to-GDP ratio and Fiscal Impulse ofAutonomous Communities_________________1710. Bohn Rule Coefficient by AutonomousCommunity__________________________________18 SPAIN TABLE 1. Panel Regressions of Cyclicality of Spending in the AutonomousCommunities_______________15 References_______________________________________________________________________________________27 ANNEX I. Additional Figures and Tables__________________________________________________________________30 THECASEFORBORROWER-BASEDMACROPRUDENTIALMEASURESINSPAIN___________34 A. Introduction___________________________________________________________________________________34B. Overview of BBMs and Complementary Macroprudential Measures__________________________36C. Design and Calibration Considerations________________________________________________________38D. Impact of Lending Standards on Mortgage Defaults in Spain_________________________________41 FIGURES 1. House Price Growth and New Mortgage Issuance_____________________________________________352. Activation of BBMs in Euro Area Countries, 2015–25__________________________________________373. Marginal Impact of High-Risk Loans at Issuance on the Default Probability___________________424. Interaction of BBMs with Capital-Based Measures____________________________________________435. Characteristics of Spanish Mortgage Portfolio by Vintage_____________________________________456. Model Validation______________________________________________________________________________487. Stress Test Results_____________________________________________________________________________508. Assumed Timeline of Macroprudential Policy Interventions___________________________________51 TABLES 1. Key Policies to Address Vulnerabilities in the Residential Real Estate Market__________________372. BBMs,MaturityCaps, andCapital-BasedMeasures across EUBankingUnionCountries______393. Stress Test Scenario (2028-2030): Key Macrofinancial Variables_______________________________49 References_______________________________________________________________________________________54 ANNEXES I. Full Regression Results for the Loan-Level Analysis____________________________________________56II. Scenario-Based Default Model Calibration____________________________________________________58III. Microfinancial Variables Path Assumptions___________________________________________________59 FIRM-LEVELINNOVATIONINSPAIN: PATTERNS, DRIVERS,ANDPOLICYIMPLICATIONS 60 A. Introduction___________________________________________________________________________________60B. Spain’s Innovation Policies____________________________________________________________________62C. Data and StylizedFacts_______________________________________________________________________62D. Empirical Analysis_____________________________________________________________________________65E. Model_________________________________________________________________________________________70F. QuantitativeExercise__________________________________________________________________________72G. Conclusion and Policy Considerations________________________________________________________73 FIGURES 1. GDP per Capita a