美国电子商务：活跃买家增长是否已迎来拐点？

US eCommerce: Has Active Buyer growth turned the corner? Besides the EBAY and GME headlines, one development that caught our attention thisearnings cycle in US eCommerce was the improvement in Active Buyers. It wasn’t uniform ordefinitive for every name, but directionally we saw better Y/Y and Q/Q metrics. The growthin New Buyers is starting to look better again, an encouraging sign.For a sector that usuallytrades on user growth, this gives investors something to look forward to. Of course, part ofthis has already been captured in the stronger GMV trends observed in recent periods — Nikhil Devnani, CFA+1 917 344 8425nikhil.devnani@bernsteinsg.com Nathan Gee+1 917 344 8573nathan.gee@bernsteinsg.com Ajeya Patil, CFA+1 917 344 8467ajeya.patil@bernsteinsg.com Active Buyers have stabilized.Across eBay, Etsy, and Wayfair, Active Buyers were flat-to-up Q/Q in 1Q26, following through from 4Q25. Y/Y growth was more mixed with Etsystill declining (albeit less so). However, underneath the hood, Etsy and Wayfair both sawY/Y acceleration in New Buyers. And while eBay does not provide a comparable metric,management acknowledged on the call that the funnel for buyers is growing, with the US up Reported metrics are quirky.Active Buyers are defined as those who have purchasedsomething in the last twelve months. This annual look-back period makes sense ineCommerce because purchase occasions can be infrequent — but it creates quirkydynamics when observing quarterly GMV trends in relation to Active Buyer trends. Forexample, 2025 TTM Active Buyer growth looked weak partly because 2024 strength rolled Improving demand?‘Quarterly Active Buyers’ isnot disclosed, but would give us a sense ofcurrentdemand. Wayfair’s order growth (our proxy for intra-quarter demand) returnedto positive territory in 3Q25 and has held at LSD+ (ahead of Active Buyers). eBay noted“really balanced” trends across US buyer count, cohort mix, frequency, and spend whileputting up 27% GMV growth. Etsy has seen Net Adds improve — while trends here remainthe weakest, churn should be a diminishing headwind (2025 churn reflected 2024 strengthin Buyers, which will now be out of the metric and improves Y/Y). The formula for stronger The outlook.We shake out in-line to slightly ahead on Active Buyers. While critical,Active Buyers are one component of GMV growth, with frequency the other key factor.Nonetheless, in a year of tougher comps and debates around a macro shocks and risksto consumer spending, Active Buyers make for an important building block into 2027. It’sworth noting that the sector benefited from more favorable advertising dynamics in GoogleShopping late last year as Amazon exited the auction, which has been a persistent tailwind BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE PRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate ETSY, EBAY, and W Market-Perform. For Wayfair, we incorporate the company’s new debt issuance and assume a paydown of the 2028 converts, which increasesinterest expense but is offset by less dilution. Against the current backdrop of uncertainty around rates and consumerspending, we reduce our multiple in our comps approach from 18x Adj. EBITDA to 15x, which takes our PT down to $85 (-$15).Conversely, on EBAY we increase our PT up to $100 (+$5) to reflect ongoing momentum in the business. In our DCF, we arenow assuming a higher terminal value growth rate of 3% (vs. 2% previously). Our PT implies a multiple of 21x 2027E GAAP EPS.The key question remains durability of growth as we move through the balance of the year. We think the company is executing DETAILS EXHIBIT 1:Active Buyers have stabilized across the group over the last two quarters... EXHIBIT 6:Etsy offers more detailed Active Buyer metrics so we can use it to illustrate ongoing dynamics. GrossAdds are improving (we look Y/Y given seasonal dynamics in buyer trends)... EXHIBIT 7:...and so is the number buyers that are churning, which means less of a headwind. For Etsy this is likelythe key to getting back to modest Active Buyer growth. EXHIBIT 9:...while Etsy is still trying to find the floor onY/Y trends here, but starting to see stabilization on Q/Qgrowth (i.e., absolute number in each category). EXHIBIT 8:For growth to sustain, it is important thatgross adds — via repeat and new customers — stayshealthy. Wayfair has been positive in recent quarters... Our published model includes Depop (7M buyersestimated for 4Q26) but we show organic buyercount here as consensus has not modeled DepopSource: Company reports, Visible Alpha, Bernstein Source: SensorTower, Bernstein analysis Source: SimilarWeb, Bernstein analysis Source: SimilarWeb, Bernstein analysis Source: SimilarWeb, Bernstein analysis Source: SensorTower, Bernstein analysis APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS EXHIBIT 21:Our Etsy earnings model. EXHIBIT 22:Our eBay earnings model. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to