人工智能走向实体：机器人的十年属于中国

The decade of the robot belongs to SIGNATURE China's robotics roll-out is unmatched, accounting for 50% ofglobal industrial robots and 85% of humanoids in 2025.Backed by coordinated industrial policy and tight supplychain control, humanoids could reach 3.8% of labourcapacity by 2035,offsettingc.60% of China's projected Thematic FICC Research Zornitsa Todorova(i)+44 (0) 20 3134 4561zornitsa.todorova@barclays.comBarclays, UK Carlos Eduardo Garcia Martinez(i)+1 212 523 7426carlosed.garciamartinez@barclays.comBCI, US China is the world’s robotics powerhouse and innovation lab, installing around half of allindustrial robots globally (nearly 300k versus just 34k in the US),liftingrobot density by 600%to nearly 500 robots per 10k workers since 2016. It also now dominates the production and •This leadership reflects a decade-long, state-guided push.Our analysis of over 300krobotics patents since 2000 reveals that China's innovation has scaled at a remarkable pace,accounting for around 70% of global filings, versus 4% in the US. China's robotics engine is •In China, roboticsisindustrial policy.Policy spans the full stack – from critical inputs andenergy through components and deployment – simultaneously shaping supply and creating This is a Special Report that is not an equity or a debt research report under U.S. FINRA Rules2241-2242. This author is a debt research analyst in the Fixed Income, Currencies and CommoditiesResearch department and is neither an equity research analyst nor subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to analysts who produce debt research Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 18.Completed: 18-May-26, 19:40 GMTReleased: 19-May-26, 04:00 GMT 90% of global refined rare earths. It also leads in key components, such as batteries, where itholds the largest global export share at 45%. This is the decade of the robot – and it belongs to China.Large-scale humanoiddeployment began in 2025 with 15k units, rising to 60k in 2026 based on announced projects.Drawing on the roll-out of comparable technologies – most notably EVs in China – we project •China's rapidly aging population is driving strong domestic demand for robots.A 37mnlabour shortfall this decade is straining its $4.7trn manufacturing base, while creating a vastdomestic market to absorb millions of robots. If current trends hold, humanoid robots could China has the edge – but the US and Europe are still in the race.Adoption in Westernmarkets is likely to come later, reflecting a more consumer-led model. However, securityconcerns around Chinese humanoids – such as risks to data and intellectual property – are Autonomy meets geopolitics and industrial policy.Roughlyone-fifthof robotics patentsare linked to the defence industry, with further spillovers into aerospace, mobility and energy– underpinned by shared foundational technologies such as sensing and navigation. The The year of the robot Automation in China started with industrial robots Robotics integration in China has advanced steadily since the early 2000s, unfolding insuccessive adoption waves. Under sustained state guidance, the first major automation pushcentered on industrial robots, with uptake accelerating sharply in the mid-2010s and scalingrapidlythereafter.Today,China accounts for roughly half of global annual industrial-robot The scale of growth is most pronounced in manufacturing.Between 2016 and 2023, Chinaliftedrobot density by more than 600%: from around 70 to nearly 500 robots per 10k workers, the fastest growth rate globally (Figure 2).2 Automation's next act will be humanoids In our view, AI-enabled robotics – humanoids in particular – will be automation's next act,shiftingautomation from task-specific, factory-bound machines to systems designed to operatewithin human-built environments, using the same tools, layouts and workflows as people, and Although humanoid robots have existed for nearly a decade,2025 marked a clear inflectionpoint in deployment. Based on our analysis of company announcements and press releasesfrom leading humanoid manufacturers, we estimate that around 15k humanoid units were To date, deployment has been dominated by China and the US – with China clearly in thelead, accounting for nearly 85% of global installations in 2025.While installations in Chinahave so far been concentrated among a small number of manufacturers, notably Unitree and In fact, China now hosts a rapidly expanding humanoid ecosystem, with roughly 140 activedomestic manufacturers and around 330 humanoid models unveiled in 2025 alone.3Crucially, this leadership did not emerge overnight. Our analysis in the next section shows that it is theresult of more than a decade of sustained state-guided investment in technology, innovation, China is the world's robotics powerhouse Insights from 300k robotics patents We use patent data to compare innovation trends in robotics across countries. Pat