人工智能走向实体：机器人的十年

The decade of the robot Advances in brains, brawn and batteries are pushing AI-enabled robotics to an inflection point, setting theinvestment agenda for the next decade. From humanoids andautonomous vehicles to industrial automation and drones,the market is scaling toward a trillion-dollar opportunity by2035. Thematic FICC Research Zornitsa Todorova(i)+44 (0) 20 3134 4561zornitsa.todorova@barclays.comBarclays, UK Carlos Eduardo Garcia Martinez(i)+1 212 523 7426carlosed.garciamartinez@barclays.comBCI, US •Physical AI – AI embodied in robots and autonomous machines – could become a trillion-dollar industry by 2035. Spanning humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles, industrialautomation and drones, we estimate a$0.5-1.4trn market by 2035(baseline ~$900bn),depending on the pace and breadth of adoption. Autonomous vehicles are set to lead, drivingnearly half of the growth, or up to $550bn by 2035. Fundamental Credit ResearchPriya Ohri-Gupta, CFA(i)+1 212 412 3759priya.ohrigupta@barclays.comBCI, US •The investment case for physical AI rests onfour pillars:Brains,BrawnandBatteriesdriving build costs, underpinned by criticalEnablerseither delivering robotic systems orstrengthening the ecosystem by accelerating adoption. Progress across all four pillars issetting the stage for AI-driven robotics, with deployment starting with autonomous vehiclesand drones, followed by multi-task robots and, eventually, general-purpose humanoidrobots. Christophe Boulanger(i)+44 (0) 20 3555 1984christophe.boulanger@barclays.comBarclays, UK Andrew Keches, CFA(i)+1 212 412 5248andrew.keches@barclays.comBCI, US •Our framework maps close to 200 public issuers behind the global physical AI valuechain. We have built this dataset ourselves – it did not exist previously – and apply bottom-upanalysis to assess the macro narrative across sectors and regions. Equity ResearchDan Levy+1 212 526 3212dan.levy@barclays.comBCI, US •Physical AI both broadens and deepens the opportunity set.By driving new demand forphysical components and extending AI adoption from analytics to physical execution, the AIvalue chain is expanded to include autos/component manufacturers and automation Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Simon Coles, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 4519simon.coles@barclays.comBarclays, UK This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Thematic Investing ResearchWilliam Thompson+1 212 526 8641william.s.thompson@barclays.comBCI, US This is a Special Report that is not an equity or a debt research report under U.S. FINRA Rules2241-2242. (i)This author is a debt research analyst in the Fixed Income, Currencies and CommoditiesResearch department and is neither an equity research analyst nor subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to analysts who produce debt researchreports under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Sustainable Investing Research Maggie O'Neal(iii)+ 44 (0) 20 7773 6924maggie.oneal@barclays.comBarclays, UK (iii)This author is a member of the EMEA Equity Research department who may publish equityand debt research FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 19. FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 19. FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 20.Completed: 16-Feb-26, 16:36 GMTReleased: 17-Feb-26, 12:30 GMTRestricted - External specialists, while also supporting continued momentum in semis, hyperscalers and techgiants. •Most importantly, physical AI brings a new cohort of Enablers into focus – firms that arenative to AI, but monetise it through the physical world.Together with incumbentsdeploying robots across industrials, logistics and retail,Enablers most clearly capture themacro upsidefrom productivity gains and long-term growth, and are dominated by issuersin the US and China, where we expect much of the physical AI story to play out. •But so far, China dominates robot deployment.Of the roughly 15k new humanoid robotinstallations in 2025, China accounted for more than 85%, compared with just 13% in the US.China also leads in industrial robot adoption, installing55% of global units in 2024 (nearly300k, vs 34k in the US), underscoring the speed and scale of its robotics roll-out. Physical AI: The next trillion dollar market? Physical AImarks a fundamental paradigmshiftfrom AI confined to digital spaces tointelligent systems that sense, think and act in the real word.While digital AI focuses on thecreation of digital content such as text, images and code, physical AI is defined by its ability toclose the loop between percep