2026年美银中国会议：中国汽车会议主要要点

takeaways from China auto meetingsIndustryOverview OEMs:upbeatonexport;robotaxis:regulatoryheadwind Greater ChinaAutos (BYD, Chery, Geely, Leapmotor, GWM, GAC, Seres), auto parts (Fuyao, Minth, Nexteer,RoboSense, Shuanghuan), auto dealer (Zhongsheng,Yongda, Meidong), and battery Ming Hsun Lee, CFA >Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) (CALB, Kedali), as well as robotaxi (Pony Al, WeRide), EVTOL (Ehang),and E2W (Yadea)segments. Major auto OEMs are positive on the export growth momentum and willcontinue to expand sales channels, production capacity, and product line-ups overseas. Inthe domestic market, competition remains intense, whilemore efforts on premiumbrands could lift unit profit per vehicle and a robust model pipeline could help drive salesvolume growth in China.Robotaxi companies Pony Al and WeRide expect the recentregulatory headwinds caused by the accidents in Wuhan to have little long-term impactBoth companies would enlarge their fleet size, increase utilization rate, and coveredareas to post unit economy breakeven.Auto parts: mixed update along with pricing pressure Joey Yang,CFA>>Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) +85235084021Fiona Liang >>Research AnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong) +85235084390Jessie Lo >>Research AnalystMerill Lynch (Singapore) +65 6678 1134 Auto parts suppliers are navigating a mixed outlook. While mix upgrade, global expansion,and new technologies offer support, industry-wide pricing pressure continues to cap margin upside.Fuyao and Shuanghuan expect shipment recovery in 2Q26 supported byoverseas demand and product mix improvement, which should help sustain ASPs. Nexteercontinues to see solid ordermomentum, although growth remains partly constrained bysofter China demand and price-down pressure. Minth's margins are expected to remainbroadly stable, supported by cost pass-through and operational efficiency,while newbusinesses provide incremental growthbut arestill in earlystages.RoboSenseremainspositive on shipment growth, but ASP pressure persists amid competition.Dealers: discounts widen in Apr; E2W: bright export outlook ASP: average selling price EVTOL: electric Vertical Take-Off and LandingEV: electric vehicle Auto dealers saw traditional luxury brands' price discount notably widened in April and NEV: new energy vehicle they remain cautious on new-car sales profitability.Zhongsheng is accelerating EV storerollouts while maintaining disciplined discounting and tight volume control to limit losses.Meidong saw Porsche margins pressured by model cycles despite temporary pricingdiscipline,and BMW is seeing renewed discount pressure alongside volume recovery.Yongda noted intensifying pricing pressure for Porsche and BMW (similar to Meidong),and also saw Audi's insufficient rebates continued to weigh on new-car profitability.OnE2W,Yadea lifted its2026overseasvolumesalesguidanceto600-700kfrom500kunits, and expects its overseas losses to narrow meaningfully. Meanwhile, it is on agradual recovery path for both volume and profitability in domestic market from 2Q26. BEV: battery electric vehicle ICEV:internalcombustionengine vehicleHEV: hybrid electric vehicle E2W:electric two wheeler system LiDAR: Light Detection and Ranging OEM BYD (1211 HK) Overseas expansion:shifting towards higher-endand localization improve margins BYD's overseas sales are guided at 1.5mn units in 2026, with upside potential. BYD sees strong demand in the overseas market, evidenced by lengthening delivery lead times.Meanwhile, BYD has an increasingly diversified product matrix that is shifting from massmarket toward higher-end positioning in the overseas market, including Yangwang,Denza and Fangchengbao. Localization is expected to structurally improve overseasmargins, too: the Hungary plant will start production in a few months, while theIndonesia plant is scheduled to start production in mid-2026. By region, APAC andEurope remain the two largest overseas markets, while incremental contribution fromthe Americas is likely more limited despite easing EV (electric vehicle) import rules inCanada recently. BYD mentioned China domestic market has been relatively weak in 4M26but has apotential near-term rebound. BYD's inventory level in domestic market remains healthyat <40Ok units, with active destocking in recent months. BYD's premium-brand volumesales was 400k units in 2025, while BYD expects an incremental several hundredthousand units in 2026, which will also support BYD's per vehicle profitability to trendsteadily upward in 2026. Fangchengbao is expected to be the key growth driver, withTitanium 7 launched in 2025, followed by a larger SUV model and new sedan series in2026. Denza is in a transition phase but has new products in the pipeline. impactsBYD highlighted its advantages in fast-charging and battery technology remain a key differentiator. The company plans 20k fast charging stations by end-2026, mostly co-built with partners and several thousand owned by BYD, up from 6k curren