中国广义消费考察 - 主要结论

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Lillian LouEquity AnalystLillian.Lou@morganstanley.com China Broader ConsumptionTrip – Key Takeaways Hildy LingEquity AnalystHildy.Ling@morganstanley.com Carlos Liu, CFAResearch Associate Overall consumption trends remain muted, with generallybumpy monthly momentum. Our trip reaffirmed our Dustin WeiEquity AnalystDustin.Wei@morganstanley.com Jenny YuResearch AssociateJenny.Yu1@morganstanley.com Key Takeaways Terence ChengEquity AnalystTerence.Cheng@morganstanley.com We still expect a soft consumption recovery. During the trip, dairy stood out asthe most resilient category; YUMC could see sequential improvement in 2Q. Broad pricing recovery has yet to emerge. Companies continue to focus onoperating efficiency and product mix to mitigate cost pressures. Jenny TingResearch Associate We expect cost pressure to become more visible from late 2Q into 3Q for the China/Hong Kong Consumer Asia PacificIndustry ViewIn-Line On the positive side, leading companies across major segments are shifting fromsimple price competition toward product and service differentiation. Read more: Laopu Gold: Consumer Trip Key Takeaways (15May 2026) During the trip, we met companies across the dairy segment –Yili (600887.SS,OW), Mengniu (2319.OW), Feihe (6186.HK, non-covered);restaurants/freshly-breweddrinks –YUMC (YUMC.N, OW), Green Tea (6831.HK, non-covered), Guming (1364.HK,non-covered); F&B –Tingyi (0322.HK, EW), Weilong (9985.HK, OW); Beauty –Proya(603605.SS, OW), Chicmax (2145.HK, non-covered); Gold & Jewelry –Laopu Dairy:Liquid milk momentum remained healthy into April. Both Mengniu and Yilitarget liquid milk to resume growth in 2026 and expect market share gains fromsmaller players amid potential recovery of raw milk prices. •Mengniu (2319.HK, OW):Targeting mid-single-digit sales growth in 2026. In1Q26, Milk Deluxe delivered double-digit growth, while basic milk grew at amid- to high-single-digit pace, and this momentum largely continued in April.Bulk raw milk prices have stabilized. The company sees limited GPM upside Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investment •Yili (600887.SS, OW):Maintaining ~5% sales growth target in 2026, withpositive growth in UHT milk, mid- to high-single-digit growth in IMF withmarket share gains, and double-digit growth in adult milk powder. Liquid milk For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearances See the following page for more feedback on the QSR (YUMC), F&B (Tingyi), gold &jewelry (Laopu) and freshly brewed beverages market segments. QSR: Yum China (YUMC.N, OW):Quarter-to-date SSSG is in line with the company’sexpectations, with sequential improvement expected in 2Q vs 1Q. The school springvacation ahead of the Labor Day holiday supported April performance. YUMC notesresilient demand following partial price hikes for its delivery products from the start of F&B (Tingyi, 0322.HK, EW):Targeting low-single-digit % YoY sales growth in 2026. YTDperformance remains broadly on track, with both noodles and beverages growing withinthis range. In beverages, tea products are expected to outperform, while water remainsunder pressure. Competition remains intense across the segment, with margin pressure Gold & jewelry:Demand growth improved sequentially in May as gold prices stabilizedfollowing volatility in 1Q26. Going forward, gold price stability will likely remain the keydriver of demand. Competition is intensifying as traditional brands target the high-end •Laopu (6181.HK, OW):Demand momentum improved sequentially in May. While2Q26 demand momentum is still slightly below our expectations, marginexpansion is much stronger.•Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (600655.SS, non-covered):As a landlord, it is Freshly brewed beverages:Pressure persists in 2Q–3Q26 due to a high base from lastyear and milder delivery platform subsidies. Competition focuses more on product Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which accepts the responsibility for its contents) and/or MorganStanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number 200008434H), regulated by the MonetaryAuthority of Singapore (which accepts legal responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arisi