危机韧性：海湾合作委员会经济未来的战略要务

A strategic imperative forGCC’s economic future C O N T E N T E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y 1 .E M B E D D I N G C R I S I S R E S I L I E N C E AT 2 .P R O T E C T I N G G C C A M B I T I O N S 3 .S T R E N G T H E N I N G G C C ’ S 4 .E M E R G I N G P R I O R I T I E S C O N C L U S I O N — A D E F I N I N G M O M E N T ALEX ANDER BUIRSKIPartner, Transformation MUJAHID RAZA KHANManager, Public Sector YIGIT SAFPrincipal, Public Sector JAVIER MORENOConsultant, Public Sector AYUSH ANANDConsultant FRANCISCO TEBARPrincipal, Growth E X E C U T I V ES U M M A R Y CRISIS RESILIENCE AS A STRATEGICLEVER FOR ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION In an era marked by volatility, crisis resilience is no longera matter of contingency — it is a strategic necessity.For Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations, whose GCC nations are no stranger to disruption. Over thepast 15years, the region has experienced more thanUS$5.8billion in direct economic losses from emergencyincidents (estimated based on selected incidents, asexplained further in this report). Projections indicate that This report presents a new framing of crisis resilience as astrategic enabler of economic transformation. It providesnational leaders and executive decision makers with atwo-phase blueprint: (1) fix institutional and structural The report also highlights the emerging role of technologiesin building a forward-looking crisis resilience architecturefor national economies. Advanced tools such as AI-drivenscenario forecasting, real-time surveillance, meteorological Ultimately, the resilience challenge is a leadershipopportunity. By placing crisis preparedness at the heartof economic policy and institutional reform, GCC nations 1 .E M B E D D I N G C R I S I S R E S I L I E N C EA TT H E C O R E O F E C O N O M I C Economic resilience is generally defined as anation’s capacity to sustain growth, absorbeconomic shocks, and adapt to changing globalconditions. It reflects how well an economycan withstand disruptions or downturns, I T I S T I M E T O E M B E DR E S I L I E N C E AT T H E Resilience must therefore move beyondoperational readiness to becomeinstitutionalized across public, private, andthird-sector entities. This requires integrationacross critical policy domains, fiscal planning, The national visions being pursued acrossGCC (Saudi Vision 2030, Qatar National Vision2030, Oman Vision 2040, UAE [United ArabEmirates] Vision 2050, and others) are ambitiousblueprints to diversify national economies tosecure a sustainable and prosperous future For GCC leaders, the ability to anticipate,absorb, and recover from such crises must beviewed as a pillar of economic competitiveness,not just a contingency plan. Crisis resilienceprotects public trust, safeguards investor Looking forward, nations that adopt a broaderdefinition of resilience (as a core economicasset) and invest accordingly will protecttheir gains but will lead globally as models 2 .P R O T E C T I N G G C C A M B I T I O N ST H R O U G HC R I S I S R E S I L I E N C E R E S I L I E N C E I S T H EF O U N D AT I O N F O R ROBUST RESILIENCE GCC countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar,the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia [KSA], and the UAE)have witnessed significant growth in recentyears and have a positive outlook, in part due to In GCC, extreme weather events such ascyclones and floods, as well as human-causeddisasters such as cyberattacks or drone threats, However, they are increasingly exposed toregional and global crises that will likelyhavean outsized impact on economic stability.Prioritized industry sectors and economic Although diversification creates new growthengines, it also introduces vectors ofvulnerability. Embedding resilience practicesand systems proactively into sectoraldevelopment, from robust cybersecurity indigital infrastructure to climate-resilient design Globally, these economic activities haveproven vulnerable to crises and emergencies,underscoring the need for robust crisisresilience mechanisms to safeguard their QUANTIFYING COST OF CRISES Over the past 15 years, the estimated directimpact of incidents in GCC reached $5.8 billion(considering the selected incidents from EM-DAT). KSA accounted for 60% of the total impact In recent years, the GCC region has faced floods,cyclones, a pandemic, geopolitical tensions andmore, testing national resilience strategies.and Oman followed with 34% (see Figure2).The highest contributing disasters were Figure 1 shows that over the past three decades,recorded incidents in GCC have increasedsignificantly, rising from 28 incidents to 44 —particularly impacting KSA and Oman. Acrossthe region, transport incidents and structuraland industrial fires also had an impact. These a57% surge.1It is important to note that therestatistics highlight the financial burden of $8 million per breach,3highlighting the potential Over the next 16 years, the estimated economicValue at Risk (VAR) in GCC is projected to increaseby 65%, reaching