科技日报 -美股盘后-20260513

TMTB · TMT Breakout · 2026年05月13日 05:46 半导体板块今日下跌3%，但此前已涨65%、RSI高于75，回调幅度有限，多数AI半导体图表甚至未触及10日均线。NVDA逆势微涨并创历史新高，QCOM则因负面文章暴跌11.5%，成为最大输家。 AI数据中心电力主题持续升温，MS与Citrini均强调800V架构将大幅推升功率半导体含量，宽禁带材料SiC/GaN被视为主要受益方向。软件与互联网板块分化明显，MDB受AI驱动Atlas消费预期提振，而GTLB因裁员重组大跌。后续关注WWDC、GTA VI发布催化及电力主题能否持续扩散。 TMTB 收盘总结 TMTB EOD Wrap TMT Breakout 下午好。QQQs 下跌 85 个基点，受半导体板块下跌 3% 拖累。此前隔夜出现一些地缘政治传闻（特朗普表示停火处于"生命维持"状态，且"比最近几周更认真地考虑恢复大规模作战行动"），加上 CPI 数据高于预期，打击了期货市场，不过纳斯达克最终收盘点位与 CPI 公布前基本持平。SOX 指数一度下跌 7%，但最终以体面的-3% 收盘——这与我们隔夜在韩国看到的逢低买入动态类似，此前一位高层政策制定者表示，韩国应利用 AI 利润税收向公民派发"红利"。 TMT Breakout Good afternoon. QQQs -85bps led lower by Semis-3% after some geopolitical rumblings overnight (Trump said thatceasefire is on “life support” and “more seriously consideringa resumption of major combat operations than he has in recentweeks”) and a hotter CPI print hit futures although Nasdaqfinished in line with where it was pre-CPI. SOX was down 7% atone point but finished a respectable -3% — similar dip buyingdynamic we saw in Korea overnight after a top policymaker saidthe nation should pay citizens a “dividend” using taxes on AIprofits. 总而言之，半导体板块此前上涨了 65%，RSI 高于 75，因此 3% 的回调实在算不上什么大事，尤其是几乎每张 AI 半导体图表甚至都还没触及 10 日移动均线。 All in all, semis were up 65% with an RSI >75 so a 3% pullbackshouldn’t really register as anything significant, especially withalmost every AI semi chart still not having even touched the 10dMA. 相反，让我们直接进入正题…… Instead, let’s just get straight to the good stuff… AI/半导体 AI/SEMIS 电力主题今天受到更多关注——我们来深入探讨一下。The Power theme getting more love today - lets dive in a bit. MS 今天宣布推出其电力篮子（MSXXX800v）： MS announced their Power Basket today (MSXXX800v): MS 表示，AI 数据中心机架正在超越当今的 480V AC/54VDC 架构，下一代系统如 NVDA Rubin Ultra/Kyber 需要更高电压的设计（包括 800V 电力侧车），这将大幅增加功率半导体含量。他们强调，鉴于更高的电压/热需求，宽禁带半导体（SiC/GaN）是主要受益者，看好 IFX 因其广泛的SiC/GaN/硅产品组合，以及 ON 因其不断增长的 SiC 敞口。MS 指出，IFX 目前看到每千瓦含量约 17.5 万美元的机会，且随时间推移有上行空间，而 ON 则将机架功率半导体含量的规模描绘为从当今 120kW 机架的约 1.5 万美元，增长到 2030 年未来 600kW-1MW 系统的约 11.5 万美元。 MS said AI data center racks are outgrowing today’s 480V AC/54VDC architecture, with next-gen systems like NVDA Rubin Ultra/Kyber requiring higher-voltage designs (including 800V powersidecars) that materially increase power semiconductor content.They highlighted wide-bandgap semis (SiC/GaN) as keybeneficiaries given higher voltage/thermal demands, favoring IFXfor its broad SiC/GaN/silicon portfolio and ON for growing SiCexposure. MS notes IFX sees ~$175K per kW content opportunitytoday with upside over time, while ON frames rack power semicontent scaling from ~$15K on today’s 120kW racks to ~$115Kon future 600kW–1MW systems by 2030. Citrini 也发布了一份不错的 AI 报告，其基本论点是：AI 数据中心正开始消耗原本为电动汽车、太阳能、汽车电力电子和电网现代化打造的供应链，这为那些仍被定价为周期性 EV/工业供应商、而非 AI 基础设施受益者的股票创造了机会。800V DC 机架架构是他们最确信的主题，用以布局超越 NVDA、内存、光学等第一波赢家的 AI 基础设施。他们指出了多种参与方式，其中 WOLF（今日上涨 6%）是他们的主要选择（他们偏爱的 200mm SiC 厂商，唯一一家在商业规模上运营的），其他还包括 ACLS、STM、ON、IFX。 Citrini was also out with good AI note, with the basic thesis: AIdata centers are beginning to consume supply chains originallybuilt for EVs, solar, automotive power electronics, and gridmodernization which creates opportunities in names still pricedas cyclical EV/industrial suppliers rather than AI infrastructurebeneficiaries. 800V DC rack architecture is their highest convictiontheme to play the AI infrastructure moving beyond first orderwinners like NVDA, memory, optics, etc. They called out variousways to play it, with WOLF (+6% today) their main pick (their200mm SiC fav only one operating at commercials cale) andothers such as ACLS, STM, ON, IFX Irrational Analysis 过去几周也一直在讨论这个话题： Irrational Analysis has been on about it for the past couple weeks.as well: 这绝对值得深入挖掘，持有该主题的部分仓位可能是有道理的。我们认为，WOLF 在这里可能最具爆发力，因为它正从破产边缘恢复，具有最大的重新评级上行潜力，而STM、TXN、ON、IFX 这些大盘股则拥有最佳叙事（按此顺序排列）。 Definitely worth digging in here and likely makes sense to ownsome part of this theme. WOLF likely has the most juice here sincethey are coming off bankruptcy and biggest potential to be re-rated higher and STM, TXN, ON, IFX large caps with the bestnarratives (in that order) in our view. - QCOM 下跌 11.5%，是今日最大输家，此前其股价在几周内从 140 飙升至 250。Tae Kim 发表了一篇负面文章，称他"极度看空"该公司，详细阐述了就在一个月前、DCCPU 逼空行情启动前，这为何是一个最受青睐的做空标的：其所有业务线都面临威胁，Apple 正在替换Qualcomm 的调制解调器芯片，Android 销售放缓，其PC 和数据中心雄心缺乏动力，NVDA 在多个细分市场正成为直接竞争对手，以及顶尖工程人才大量流失到竞争对手和初创公司，预示着更深层次的内部问题。 - QCOM -11.5% the biggest loser after ramping from 140 to 250 ina couple of weeks. Tae Kim had a negative piece saying he was“extremely bearish” the co detailing all the reasons this was afavorite short just a month ago before the DC CPU squeeze kickedoff: it faces threats across all its business lines with Apple isreplacing Qualcomm's modem chips, Android sales slowing, itsPC and data center ambitions lacking traction, NVDA is emergingas a direct competitor in multiple segments, and a significantexodus of top engineering talent to rivals and startups signalsdeeper internal problems. - NVDA 上涨 61 个基点，创历史新高，是为数不多的上涨股票之一。 - NVDA +61bps new ATHs one of few stocks in the green - ANE