对中国酒店行业持积极展望，并给予华住集团和亚朵生活买入评级

Sammi Xu Initiating on the hotel sector with a positive outlook and Buy ratings on H Worldand Atour Research Analyst We initiate coverage on H World and Atour Lifestyle with Buy ratings, alongside ourpositive 2026 outlook on the China hotel sector. Despite soft consumer sentimentin China, the hotel industry has demonstrated superior resilience relative to otherdiscretionary categories since 4Q25. RevPAR performance in 1Q26 was robust(+4.3% YoY, per STR). We expect the sector to continue outperforming throughout We are positive on H World (Target Price: US$56/HK$43.8).H World has beensuccessfully navigating a clear, long-term growth trajectory fueled by a strategicshift toward an asset-light model and continuous product upgrades across itsmulti-brand portfolio. By leveraging a robust membership ecosystem, the companyis well-positioned to capitalize on the industry’s cyclical upcycle. For a 3-year view,we forecast H World to generate a 7% revenue CAGR and a 17% adjusted net profit We have a positive stance on Atour Lifestyle( Target Price: US$45), a high-growth"dual-engine" brand that is redefining the mid-to-high-end segment through itsunique integration of hospitality and retail.With a relatively small footprint of2,015 hotels as of 2025, Atour possesses significant “expansion alpha” potentialcompared to 10,000-unit industry giants, providing higher visibility for its goal of3,000 hotels by 2028. Atour's unique retail exposure, combined with an asset-lightscaling strategy, underpins our forecast of a 17% revenue CAGR and an 18%adjusted net profit CAGR from 2026 to 2028. Our proprietary trackers indicate thatAtour’s new retail business is significantly outperforming market expectations, 11 May 2026Hotels / Leisure / Gaming Hotel industry enters upcycle as oversupply begins to fade The core of our positive thesis on the China hotel sector is the shift towardbalanced supply-demand dynamics in 2026.We foresee a structural transitionfromthe oversupply environment that previously triggered irrational pricecompetition to a more favorable operating environment, characterized by slowersupply growth (+2.3% in 1Q26) and a solid demand rebound (+3.6% in 1Q26). This Demand across all sub-sectors also remains constructive: business travel hasstabilized following the conclusion of budget downgrades in 2025; leisure travelcontinues to demonstrate resilience as consumers pivot spending from goods toexperiences, further supported by favorable holiday policies in 2026. Additionally, Following a multi-year downcycle since Covid-19, we believe industry RevPARbottomed in 4Q25 and has now entered a structural upcycle.While we project full-year industry RevPAR growth of 2% for 2026 (+4.3% YTD trend), we expect marketleaders to outpace the broader sector driven by ongoing consolidation and superioroperational execution. Therefore, we believe the combination of improving RevPAR Near-term RevPar volatility creates attractive opportunity We believe that recent RevPAR fluctuations and the impact on consumersentiment due to geopolitical tensions and elevated fuel costs creates anattractive entry point for investors.While some investors may highlight near-termtraffic weakness, specifically the impact of higher airfares on Labor Day holidaydata, we view these recent disruptions as non-threatening to our full-year thesis. Our medium-term optimism remains anchored by our view of a clear, cyclicalbottom and accelerating consolidation led by industry leaders. These structuralfactors not only enhance the resilience of major hotel groups relative to other Risk Summary Our thesis is subject to several key risks1)Macroeconomic Headwinds andDemand Weakness in China; 2) Intensifying Competitive Landscape; 3) Franchisee 11 May 2026Hotels / Leisure / Gaming China hotel sector: structural upcycle commences asoversupply fades The primary driver of our positive outlook on the China hotel sector is the anticipatedshift toward more balanced supply-demand dynamics in 2026, which we believemarks a structural turning point for the industry's upcycle. As industry supply Slower industry supply since 4Q25 Following a period of significant oversupply between 2023 and 2025, our channelchecks indicate that hotel supply growth began to decelerate as of late 2025. Theearlier supply surge has absorbed the property pipeline accumulated during the For properties launched during the recent supply surge, weak RevPAR andunhealthy price competition among independent hotels has severely pressuredindividual operator profitability. This diminished return on investment, exacerbatedby intense price competition for traffic, has significantly reduced the incentive for Our expectation for disciplined supply growth in 2026 is reinforced by STR industrydata. Following a multi-year downcycle and oversupply, the industry enters 2026with disciplined supply growth of +2.3% in 1Q26, trailing a robust demand growthrate of +3.6% according to STR. This evolving supply-