新西兰：商业意见季度调查速评

Macro Notes NZ: Quick take on the QSBO General businessoutlookdropped38ptsamid Iran-warconcerns, but actualconditionsheldup better We think the NZIERquarterlysurvey of business opinion isone the bestmedium-termguidesto the New Zealand economy. The Q1 2026 survey was releasedtoday and with a survey frame from 6 March to 10 April, little surprise thattheheadlinegeneral economic outlook index dropped 38pts to +1, lowest sinceQ3-24.As NZIER describe it, business confidence has been “shaken by the US-Israelwar with Iran”. As Figure 1 shows, thechangein sentimentabout the outlookisroughlythe sameasrecently seenin Australia’s NAB business survey, butunliketheAustraliansentiment index, the QSBO did not drop into historically significant territory inthislatestprint.The NZIER survey tends to be more volatile than its Australiancounterpart, andwith a monetary policy backdrop that is materially morestimulatory than in Australia,NZ business sentiment had been tracking higherthan Australia’sprior to the Iran conflict. Other takeaways: •Firms reportedthatactualtrading conditions had weakened, but bymuch lessthan the deterioration in the businessoutlook. Specifically, the trading activityindexdropped~10ptsin Q1.Despite that,thelevelofbusiness conditions reported in the QSBO surveystill points to modestupside compared to the RBNZ’s forecasts for GDP growth (Figure 2). Figure2:Actual NZ trading conditions fell by less than confidence in latest QSBO survey, stillconsistent with better GDP growth •The labour market continues to tighten, with firms reporting increaseddifficulty in finding skilled labour in Q1-26. Mapping across to theunemploymentrate, the labour search index suggestsa material declinein unemployment into the mid to high 4% range over coming quarters(Figure 3). •But price pressuresappear to bebuilding, withthemerchant selling priceindex now at a levelconsistent withheadline inflationrising toaround 4%over coming quarters(Figure 4).The spike in fuel pricesassociated withthe Iran conflict islikely playing a role here, but the upside risks toinflation evident in Figure 4 isalsoconsistentwith thehawkish tonestruck by the RBNZ at itsApril policy meeting. It remains to be seenwhetherthis pressure translates into CPI over coming quarters.Certainly,New Zealand’s Q1 CPI, alsoreleased today, was more benignthan suggested in the QSBO survey, with headline inflationsteady at3.1%. Bottom line: Despite a large drop in business confidencein the midst of the Iranconflict, the details ofNew Zealand’sQ1 QSBO surveycontinue to show aneconomy recovering from deep recession. Elements of the survey that have agoodtrack record of reliability point toupside for GDP growth, material downsidefor unemployment, but also upside inflation risks. The RBNZ wouldworry abouttheinflation signalhere, butwhether it translates into CPIlikely dependsa lotontheoutcome of the Iran conflict. DB’s RBNZ base caseremainsfor no change in rates this year, andthreehikes in2027. Risks are skewed to a bring-forwardof oneofthose rate hikes into H2-26.Butat the same time, we thinkthe actual risk of that is less thansuggestedby theRBNZ’s sabre-rattlingtoneattheAprilpolicymeeting.Assuming a resolution ofthe Iran conflict in coming weeks,our base case remains that the RBNZ will allowNew Zealand’s(still nascent) economic recovery to continue. 21 April 2026Macro Notes 21 April 2026Macro Notes Appendix 1 Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). Inaddition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specificrecommendation or view in thisreport. Phil Odonaghoe. Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subjectcompanies, and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research,please visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk andconflict disclosures can also be found athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors arestrongly encouraged to review this information before investing. 21 April 2026Macro Notes Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively'Deutsche Bank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sourcesbelieved to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks tothird-party websites in this report are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses thecontent nor is responsible for the accuracy or security