尿素周报：地缘降温，尿素期现走弱

市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1923元/吨（-33）；河南小颗粒市场价1870元/吨（+0）；山东小颗粒市场价1860元/吨（+0）；江苏小颗粒市场价1860元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤900元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-63元/吨（+23）；河南尿素基差-53元/吨（+13）；江苏尿素基差-53元/吨（+23）；尿素生产利润225.0元/吨（+0.0）；出口利润3336.6元/吨（-382.1）。供应端：截至2026-05-10，企业产能利用率94.44%（+2.43%）；企业厂内库存为46.5万吨（+1.9）；港口库存为15.2万吨（+0.4）。 需求端：截至2026-05-10，复合肥产能利用率38.46%（-4.77%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.36%（+3.6%）；尿素企业预收订单天数6.94日（-0.7）。 市场分析 国际地缘冲突有放缓预期，国际尿素价格下跌，盘面投机情绪减弱，价格下跌。尿素新单成交放缓，现货价格松动。供应端整体维持同比高位水平。需求端农业需求暂时减弱，后续关注夏季水稻用肥与玉米备肥。工业需求小幅下降，复合肥开工下降，东北装置多进入停车检修状态，中部地区新单成交放缓，原料成本支撑较强，下游采购积极性欠佳。三聚氰胺随着国际地缘冲突缓解，价格快速回落，开工小幅回升，企业预收订单较多，挺价心态较强，对原料尿素维持刚需采购。假期期间市场成交放缓，尿素厂内库存小幅累库，企业待发仍相对充足，货源紧张态势有所缓解，但随着盘面下跌期现商出货增加，市场价格松动，山东地区出厂价已低于指导价。港口库存小幅累库。当前国内出口暂无新消息，后续持续关注出口动态及三季度现货价格指导价。 策略单边：震荡偏弱跨期：观望跨品种：无 风险 出口政策变动、下游采购情绪 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：1-5价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图8：5-9价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图9：9-1价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素产能利用率..............................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB.......................................................................