了解输电基础设施的成本：来自世界银行集团资助的输电项目的见解

UNDERSTANDING THE Insights from World Bank Group-FinancedTransmission Projects UNDERSTANDING THE INSIGHTS FROM WORLD BANK GROUP-FINANCED AboutESMAP The Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) is a partnership between the World Bankand over 20 partners to help low- and middle-income countries reduce poverty and boost growth throughsustainable energy solutions. ESMAP’s analytical and advisory services are fully integrated within the WorldBank’s country financing and policy dialogue in the energy sector. Through the World Bank Group (WBG), © 2026 April | International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Some rights reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank encourages disseminationof its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes if fullattribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should beaddressed to World Bank Publications, World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433,USA; fax:+1-202-522-2625; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Furthermore, the ESMAP Program Managerwould appreciate receiving a copy of the publication that uses this publication for its source sent in care Attribution—Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). 2026.Understanding the Cost ofTransmission Infrastructure Insights from World Bank Group-Financed Transmission Projects. ESMAP Papers. Third-Party Content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the contentcontained within the work and does not warrant that the use of any third-party owned individual componentor part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. If you wish to reuse a Production Credits Production Editor | Heather Austin Designer | GCS, World Bank Group Cover Image | @Dario Gaona/iStock GettyImages All images remain the sole property of their source and may not be used for any purpose without written Contents Acknowledgments iv Executive Summary 1.INTRODUCTION 2.1State of Knowledge: Literature Review52.2Cost Breakdowns82.3Typical Cost Drivers and Their Variability10 3.DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS 3.1Data Collection3.2Database Structure3.3Description of the Data Points3.4Key Findings and Trends in World Bank Group Data Analysis3.5Preliminary Conclusions 36 4.ESTIMATING THE LEVELIZED COST OF TRANSMISSION 4.1Wheeling Charges in Uncertain Environments: LCOT as a Reference4.2Benchmarking Transmission Costs: Insights from 74 World Bank Group Projects4.3SensitivityAnalysisofLCOTforTransmissionInvestment Optimization 5.CLOSING THE DATA GAP FOR COST OF TRANSMISSION 56 Bibliography TABLES Table 2.1Compiled Transmission Line Unit Cost from StudiesTable 2.2Compiled Transmission Line Cost Breakdown from StudiesTable 3.1Number of Projects Screened per RegionTable 3.2Transmission Costs Database StructureTable 3.3Data Sample’s Geographic Distribution Table 3.6Transmission Unit Cost Comparison to Interconnection ProjectsTable 3.7O&M Rate Change Per Region and Voltage, Averaged Over Period 2003–2021Table 3.8Discount Rates Per Region and Voltage, Averaged Over Period 2003–2021Table 4.1Sensitivity of Project Financial Returns to Export PriceTable4.2SensitivityAnalysisoftheLevelizedCostofTransmissionasaProxyforWheeling Charges Figures Figure 2.1Transmission Line Unit Cost Range from Assessed StudiesFigure 3.1Transmission Line Unit Cost Range ComparisonFigure 3.2Unit Cost Comparison by LengthFigure 3.3Unit Capital Cost Per Region and VoltageFigure 3.4Unit Capital Cost Change Over TimeFigure 3.5Unit Capital Cost Time Repartition for the 220-230 kV Category by RegionFigure 3.6O&M Rate Change Over TimeFigure 3.7Discount Rate Change Over Time, For All RegionsFigure 3.8Project Actual-to-Appraisal Cost PercentageFigure 3.9Appraisal Costs vs. Actual CostsFigure 3.10Cost Comparison with Prices of Relevant Commodities EQUATIONS Equation4.1 LevelizedCostofTransmission(LCOT)CalculationEquation 4.2Transmission Cost Competitiveness Condition BOX Box4.1ExampleofDesignOptimization:TheCaseofGuyedMasts Acknowledgments The Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) of the World Bank Group’sEnergy Global Practice prepared this technical report. The writing team was led by AndersPedersen (Senior Energy Specialist, ESMAP) and Yi Wu (Energy Consultant, ESMAP), withdatabase developed and compiled by Yi Wu. The team benefited from analytical andeditorial support by Nicolas Fichaux (Energy Consultant, ESMAP) and contributions from The team also acknowledges the contributions of Lucie Cecile Blyth (Senior External AffairsOfficer, ESMAP) and Oscar Gasca Moreno (ET Consultant, ESMAP), who supportedcommunications and dissemination efforts. The authors are thankful for the World BankGroup Review comments and suggestions from World Bank Group colleagues: Ebrima A Abbreviat