《经济学周刊》：抑制你对住房复苏的热情

William Blair As a result, those who do list are competing with home-builders clearing elevated inventories for a limited poolof buyers. According to Redfin, there were more than600,000 (or 50%) more home sellers (listings) thanbuyers in March, down from a record high of 629,000 since 2022, and for a moment raised hopes of a rebound inthe housing market. Borrowing costs had been on a steadydecline up to that point, releasing pent-up demand as theFederal Reserve cut its benchmark rate. That momentumhas since stalled, however, as the central bank holds rates steady amid growing economic uncertainty tied to the con- flict in the Middle East. By March, sales of both existing andnew homes had cooled to below their year-end pace head-ing into what is traditionally the market’s busiest season. The story of housing remains one of scarcity. On thewhole, construction activity continues to fall short ofgrowing housing demand. Household formation is waning rates as homes sit on the market longer, and may eventu-ally translate into lower prices. That is already the casefor new homes. Builders, sitting on inventory well abovehistorical norms, are offering sales incentives—with aver-age price reductions of around 5%—to attract buyers.Meanwhile, many existing homeowners opt to stay on thesidelines until conditions improve. Exhibit 3 shows theinventory of unsold new and existing homes expressed That underlying demand, though, is being suppressedas potential buyers wary of high mortgage payments,anxious about what AI could mean for the job market, andbuffeted by inflationary pressures from tariffs and the at rates well below what today’s market offers, so movingoften means giving up an older, cheaper mortgage. Mortgage rates have been above 6% for some time, andthe share of outstanding mortgages with rates above 6%has now surpassed even those with rates below 3% (ex-hibit 6). Over time, this shift should erode the lock-in ef-fect as fewer homes remain tied to lower rates. Ina survey of consumerswho currently own a home or expect to doso within the next five years, William Blair analyst PhillipBlee found that mortgage rates near 5.5% may be enoughto reengage a meaningful segment of sidelined demand. As homebuilders work off inventories from the post-pandemic surge in starts, they are breaking ground onfewer and fewer new projects. Housing starts are trend-ing lower and building permits have fallen. This createsa disconnect between today’s market and future supply. Mortgage rates are still the key to releasing pent-updemand, pulling current and prospective homeowners offthe sidelines. As shown in exhibit 5, millennials and GenZ were the age groups most sharply affected by the slow-down in the housing market. But as financing conditionsimproved in the latter half of 2025, young buyers who hadbeen waiting to enter the market jumped at the opportu-nity, and the homeownership rate for those under 35 rose In the near term, lower international immigration is adrag on the housing market—reducing demand whenlistings are elevated and shrinking the supply of labor forhomebuilding and remodeling, which is highly dependent on immigrant workers. Over the longer term, however,lower immigration eases population growth and helpsnarrow the structural housing deficit. William Blair Consistent with prior years and migration patterns, theSouth led the nation in housing starts in 2025 by a widemargin, with 722,000 starts, down 3.8% year-over-year.The West followed with 302,000 starts, down 0.3%.The Midwest recorded 196,000 starts, up 9.0%, and theNortheast trailed at 136,000 starts, though it posted thestrongest annual growth at 13.0%. This shows builders With the November midterms fast approaching, housingwill be an area of increasing political focus in the largerconversation around affordability. Facing pressure fromvoters, the Trump administration has made boosting In recent years, immigration has driven much of thenation’s population growth, but from July 2024 to June2025, net international migration added just 1.3 millionpeople to the U.S. population, down from a peak of 2.7million the year prior, and is projected to fall further to321,000 in 2026 if current policies remain in place. Mean-while, there were just over 500,000 more births thandeaths, a pace of natural increase that has held steady Domestic migration patterns continue to shape popula-tion change as well (exhibit 8). People are still movingtoward the South and away from the Northeast and West.And for the first time this decade, the Midwest saw morepeople moving in than out and was the only region in back environmental and permitting rules that the admin-istration says add tens of thousands of dollars to the costof a new home. On Capitol Hill, the Senate passed a hous-ing bill aimed at boosting supply and curbing institutionalinvestor purchases of single-family homes. Industrygroups have pushed back, especially against a require- HUD and the FHFA also moved to