LVMH（MC FP）：持有：再次抑制你的热情

Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsMAINTAIN HOLDTARGET PRICE(EUR)PREVIOUS TARGET(EUR)525.00575.00SHARE PRICE(EUR)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE479.00+9.6%(as of23 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(EURm)239,568Free floatMarket cap (USDm)270,245BBG3m ADTV (USDm)443RICFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(EUR)Year to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eHSBC EPS25.1221.20HSBC EPS (prev)25.1221.92Change (%)0.0-3.3Consensus EPS27.2324.94PE (x)19.122.6Dividend yield (%)2.72.1EV/EBITDA (x)11.312.5ROE (%)19.515.352-WEEK PRICE(EUR)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesErwan Rambourg*Global Head ofConsumer and Retail ResearchHSBC Bank plcerwanrambourg@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 0387Anne-Laure Bismuth*Analyst, Global Consumer and RetailHSBC Bank plcannelaure.bismuth@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 6587Akshay Gupta*, CFAAnalyst, Consumer ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedakshay.gupta@hsbc.com.hk+852 2974 2980* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant toFINRA regulationsEquitiesGlobal Luxury GoodsFrance05/2411/24Target price: 525.00High: 762.70 Low: 483.50 Current: 479.00 ◆◆◆ Find out more47%MC FPLVMH.PA12/2027e22.2925.3222.9826.07-3.0-2.828.1530.0921.518.92.22.512.010.815.215.9440.00620.00800.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025eProfit & loss summary(EURm)Revenue84,68381,200EBITDA22,28819,804Depreciation & amortisation-2,717-2,853Operating profit/EBIT19,57116,951Net interest-792-1,225PBT18,11515,063HSBC PBT18,11515,063Taxation-5,157-4,142Net profit12,55010,593HSBC net profit12,55010,593Cash flow summary(EURm)Cash flow from operations13,81614,522Capex-5,531-5,631Cash flow from investment-6,539-5,631Dividends-7,322-7,322Change in net debt-822-3,489FCF equity8,2858,891Balance sheet summary(EURm)Intangible fixedassets46,58746,587Tangible fixed assets46,50647,352Current assets46,48547,373Cash & others9,63112,035Total assets149,190150,924Operating liabilities37,70536,938Gross debt22,94221,857Net debt13,3119,822Shareholders' funds67,51770,788Invested capital92,24292,339Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025eY-o-y % changeRevenue-1.7-4.1EBITDA-12.2-11.1Operating profit-14.2-13.4PBT-16.2-16.8HSBC EPS-17.2-15.6Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.90.9ROIC15.213.3ROE19.515.3ROA9.27.9EBITDA margin26.324.4Operating profit margin23.120.9EBITDA/net interest (x)28.116.2Net debt/equity19.213.5Netdebt/EBITDA (x)0.60.5CF from operations/net debt103.8147.9Per share data(EUR)EPS Rep (diluted)25.1221.20HSBC EPS (diluted)25.1221.20DPS13.0010.13Book value135.19141.74Financials & valuation:LVMH Q2 2025 sales preview bydivisionand regionLVMH: Q2 25 sales previewParticulars, EURmQ2 2024Q2 2025eVar %growth %Sales by divisionChampagne & Wines715666-7%Cognac & Spirits677565-17%Wines &spirits1,3921,232-12%Fashion & Leather10,2818,790-15%Perfumes & Cosmetics1,9541,857-5%Selective Distribution4,4574,363-2%Watches & Jewellery2,6842,493-7%Others216264Total20,98419,000-9%Sales by regionUSJapanAsia ex. JapanEuropeTotalSource: Company data, HSBC estimates, Visible AlphaSource: Company data, HSBC estimatesNew estimates are below consensus◆2025: We forecast2.1% group organicgrowthdecline (from-0.4% previously) and a 220bpEBIT margin deterioration y-o-y at the group level to 20.9% (from 21.0% previously).◆2026: We forecast 3.2% group organic growth (from3.5% previously) and a50bp EBITmargin improvement y-o-y at the group level to 21.4% (unchanged).◆2027: We forecast6.0% group organic growth (from5.9% previously) and a 130bp EBITmargin improvement y-o-y at the group level to 22.7% (unchanged).Valuation and risksWe cut our DCF-derived target price to EUR525 (from EUR575) on the back ofthe cutinourestimatesshort-term but also lower top-line growthlonger-term. Our DCF assumptions include aWACC of 7.50%, based on a risk-free rate of 3.75%, equity risk premium of 4.5%, a sector betaof1.0and specific beta of 0.90(allunchanged). Our target price implies upside of c10%. Wearemaintaining our Hold ratingas we see limited stock-specific catalysts in the short term.Downside risks include:(i) Louis Vuitton’s brand momentum deteriorating on aspirationalconsumers, with Dior’s return to growth taking a lot longer than expected; (ii) a furtherdestocking in the wholesale businesses (wines & spirits, watches, and perfumes) as economicconditions deteriorate inwestern markets; (iii) value destruction linked to M&A activity (past andLVMH half-yearly EBIT marginsDecember year-endH1 23H2 232023H1 24H2 24Champagne and wine30.1%30.3%30.3%25.2%23.2%24.1%Cognac and spirits35.6%32.0%33.8%30.1%12.9%22.0%Fashion andLeather40.5%39.4%39.9%38.8%35.3%37.1%Perfume and cosmetics11.1%6.3%8.6%10.8%5.3%Selective distribution8.8%6.9%7.8%9.1%6.2%Watches and Jewellery20.1%19.6%19.8%17.0%12.3%14.6%Total EBIT27.4%25.6%26.5%25.6%20.7%23.1% 3 future); (iv) adverse FX effects, notably the EUR appreciating further vs the USD; (v) geopoliticaltensions spreadin