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Restricted - External Samuel Earl+ 1 212 526 5426samuel.earl@barclays.comBCI, USAnshul Pradhan+1 212 412 3681anshul.pradhan@barclays.comBCI, US 1https://www.atlantafed.org/banking-and-payments/consumer-payments/survey-and-diary-of-consumer-payment-choicehere). Relative to this new baseline, we still expect SOFR and FF to move closer to IORB asreserve balances fall over time.Demand for USTs from payment stablecoinsIn recent congressional testimony, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed theadministration's goal of the US "becoming the primer destination for US digital assets," and tobring digital asset innovation and experimentation back to the US. There are potentially verybroad implications for such a goal, but one that the secretary highlighted caught our attention:that these digital assets would create substantial new demand for USTs. He specificallystated: "there is speculation that there could be up to $2 trillion in demand over the next fewyears for US Government securities from digital assets."At the Q2 Treasury refunding meeting, the Treasury asked TBAC to discuss theeffectsofstablecoin adoption on demand for USTs. We think this is largely in reference to pendingpayment stablecoin legislation, such as the GENIUS act, which would create a legal pathway forthe creation of regulated payment stablecoins. This also suggests the Treasury is keen tounderstand potential new sources of demand for bills, as the share of outstanding has grownover recent years to around 22% of outstanding.For now, the GENIUS act legislation still sits in the the relevant Senate committee, but suchlegislative action, were it to be signed into law, could accelerate the adoption of stablecoins.That said, we do not think that will translate into significant demand for T-bills, as paymentstablecoins would be prohibited from paying interest under the GENIUS act.Given that, we aredoubtful that demand for USTs from payment stablecoins will materialize anytime soon.Under this framework, existing stablecoins such as USDT and USDC, which have grown inmarket cap over recent years to over $200bn combined (Figure 1), could likely convert topayment stablecoins under the act. That said, these stablecoins already likely hold significantamounts of USTs, and so mere conversion would not unlock new sources of demand for T-bills.Moreover, these stablecoins are mostly used for crypto and defi transactions, rather than real-world payments.However, payment stablecoins would be designed from the ground up as payment systems, andwe think they would fill a similar role to mobile payment platforms such as PayPal, Zelle, andothers. Households have adopted the use of mobile payment platforms quite readily over theyears. For instance, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta conducts a survey on payment choice,which shows that mobile payment platforms have gone from an under 45% adoption rate toover 70% as of 2023 (Figure 2). Even so, their share in the broader landscape of householdpayments remains quite low, at less than 1%, both as a share of the number of transactions andas a share of total value of transactions, with household payments largely dominated by banktransfers and credit/debt cards (Figure 3). 12 Source: CoinMarketCap.com, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 3. Mobile payments are small as a share of transactionnumber and value32.429.816.07.25.320.915.46.023.718.20.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.0CreditcardDebitcardCashBanktransferOnlinebillpaymentShare of transactions (%)number of transactionsvalue of transactionsSource: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Barclays Research15 May 2025 These platforms have minimal balances or none at all, as is the case for Zelle, which connects toexisting bank accounts. For instance, PayPal's annual transactions totaled $1.7trn in 2024, butaggregate customer balances totaled just $41bn for the 434mn accounts (Figure 4). This meansthe average account balance is quite low, at just $94, but the payment velocity is large, at over40x. Account holders likely move balancesoffthe platform quickly, as the opportunity cost ofholding non-interest bearing balances is high, and they lack FDIC insurance. This suggests thatwhen it comes to payment stablecoins, a similar lack of yield means balances are likely to bemanaged to a minimal level, with just enough required toeffectuatepayments. With such a highvelocity,demand for reserves such as for T-bills from payment stablecoins would be quitelow, in our view, even if broader adoption and the volume of transactions acceleratesmeaningfully.Stablecoins that pay interest would fill adifferentconsumer need versus payment stablecoins.These stablecoins would likely compete with money funds and bank deposits. As a remuneratedasset, they have the potential to grow quite large in terms of aggregate balances, and thus3 FIGURE 5. Net bills issuance ramps up in 2HFIGURE 6. Bills' share of outstanding is set to riseAssuming Cash balance of $400bn, $600bn and $850bn by Q2, Q3 and Q4 25.Source: US Treasu