泛欧交易所（ENX FP）：泛欧交易所NV（ENX FP）：持有注意交易量

EquitiesDiversified Financial Srvcs Hold: Beware of the volumes Netherlands ◆ENX sharesrallied over past months, partly driven by reratingof shares, partly due to recent uplift in trading volumes MAINTAIN HOLD ◆Q1 results on 14May shouldshow EUR293m EBITDA(+21%q-o-q; +21%y-o-y), EPS of EUR1.72(+23% q-o-q; +27% y-o-y) ◆While we lift our TP toEUR131 (from EUR125), we remaincautious and retainaHold, ENX isleast preferred EU exchange Euronext share price continued to rally over past months, partly driven byreratingof shares to come closer to global peer group valuation, partly due to recent uplift inespecially cash trading volumes.Whilethe volume discount to the global exchangespeer group has narrowed from more than 30%seven months ago (for more details,please see our report:Squaring the circle,20 September 2024)to 17% nowadays, itstill seems notfullyjustified. However, we would be aware of the recentsignificantcashequity trading volume increase and doubt that these growth rates can be sustained. Nevertheless, upcoming Q1 resultson 14May after markets closeshouldbestrongasrevenues look to be up20% y-o-y and up 19%q-o-q. We thus expect quarterlyEBITDA of EUR293m, up21% q-o-q and up21% y-o-y. While we estimate a pre-taxresult of EUR248m, up 19% q-o-q and up 22% y-o-y, we estimate quarterly net income ofEUR173m, up20% q-o-q and 24% y-o-y.The quarterlyreported EPS of EUR1.72should be up 23% q-o-q and 27% y-o-y.Itlooks like ourreported EPSestimateofEUR1.72is 7% above current Bloomberg consensusof GAAP EPS EUR1.60. We update our 2025-27 EPS forecasts:While our EPS estimates are4% belowFactsetEPS consensus for 2025, they are in line for 2026 and 2% above for 2027,whilethey are9%,12% and13%above Bloomberg GAAP EPSconsensus figures. Valuation:Wevalue the stock using a WEV model, based on our 2028 estimates,giving us an increased target price of EUR131 (up from EUR125) which impliesc7.9% downside. As the shares are still trading at an average 17%discount to theglobal exchanges peer group and continue to show strong momentum, we retain ourHold rating. Johannes Thormann*Analyst, European Banks andExchangesHSBC Continental Europe SA, Germanyjohannes.thormann@hsbc.de+49 211 910 3017 Catalysts:Monthly trading statistics are typically a trigger for the shares. Anotherpotential catalyst is the Q1 results due after market close on 14May.Downsiderisksinclude the switch of clearing from LCH to Euronext Clearing, leading to lowersynergies than expected; renewed concerns about the global economy affectingmarket sentiment and driving volumes down further; continuing regulatoryuncertainty; and further market share losses in equity trading. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Find out more Issuer of report:HSBC Continental Europe SA,Germany Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBCGlobal Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:Euronext NV Beware of the volumes ◆Euronext sharesrallied over past months, partly driven by rerating ofshares, partly due to recent uplift in trading volumes◆Q1 results on 14 May shouldshowstrongEUR293m EBITDA (+21%q-o-q; +21% y-o-y)and EPS of EUR1.72 (+23% q-o-q; +27% y-o-y)◆Whilewe lift our TP to EUR131 (from EUR125), we remain cautiousand retainaHold, ENXis least preferred among the EU exchanges Previewfor Q1 results We expect Euronext to show strong Q1 results asrevenues look to be up 20% y-o-y and up19% q-o-q. We thus expect quarterly EBITDA of EUR293m, up 21% q-o-q and up 21% y-o-y.While we estimate a pre-tax result of EUR248m, up 19% q-o-q and up 22% y-o-y, we estimatequarterly net income of EUR173m, up 20%q-o-q and 24% y-o-y. The quarterly reportedEPS ofEUR1.72 should be up 23% q-o-q and 27% y-o-y.It looks like our reported EPSestimateofEUR1.72 is 7% above current Bloomberg consensus of GAAP EPS EUR1.60. Looking into the details,the cash equitytradingand clearingrevenue should improve30%q-o-qas well as y-o-y toEUR100m. Bond trading& clearingrevenue of EUR43.5mshould be up 4%q-o-qand 11% y-o-y. Derivatives trading& clearingrevenue should be up21% q-o-q and3% y-o-y, with anaverage margin per contract of EUR0.37in Q125e.Commoditiestrading& clearingshouldbe up 14% q-o-q and 10% y-o-ydue to increased power volumes. Primary Markets revenues (former listing fees, nowpart ofCapital Markets & Data Solutions) shouldbe only slightly up.Advanced Data Services should benefit from prices rises as well.Corporate,Technology and Investor solutionsshould beseasonally down1%q-o-q but up10%y-o-y. Securities Servicesrevenue should see9%revenuegrowth q-o-q as well as y-o-y as Custody &Settlementis up 6% q-o-qas well as up 9% y-o-y due tohigher volumes. Other post trade revenuesshould be seas