最大的市场错位是什么？2026年5月

Macro Strategist+44-20-754-11149 In another of our"dislocations" series, we gotthinking about whatlooks strange inmarkets, and whatmight therefore be ripe for a correction. With the lran conflict stillongoing,there's been a clearrepricing in recent months.However,that's often been inconsistentacross differentassetclasses and regions,particularly in the face of a fresh inflation shock and more hawkish central bankpricing. Sowhataresomeof thebiggestmarketdislocationsrightnow? 1.Since the Iran conflict began, Us Treasury yields have closelytracked oilprices,butequitieshavedivergedaftertheinitialcorrelation.Itlooks likeequitiesarepricinginatemporaryshock,butratesaresimultaneouslypricinginamoreprotracted conflict. In thefirstmonth of the lranconflict,there wasatightcorrelation betweendifferentassetclasses,withoil,bondsandequitiesallseeingconsistentmoves. But since mid-April, equities have strongly diverged from oil andrates. Clearly many factors affect equities, and some have made the argumentthat US tech earnings have shifted the picture. But that's only part of thestory,given that European equities have also diverged, despitebeingmoreexposedtotheenergyshock.The inconsistency is that rates are clearly pricing in the oil shock and theinflation consequences, hence they're still moving in line with oil. Butequities are looking through it, with the S&P 500 already back to recordhighs.Even in Europe,the STOXX600is only-1.7% beneath its record high,sothisisaverydifferentplaybookto2022,whenthemajorindicesslumpedinto bear market territory. the initial correlation 2.Centralbankpricinglooksinconsistentonarelativebasis.Markets arepricingtheFedtostayonholdoverthenext12months,butalsothinktheECBmightevenhike 3timesby March.That'sdespitetheUShavingstrongergrowth and highercore inflation. Sincethe lranconflictbegan,there'sbeena hawkish repricingforcentralbanks.AttheFed,futures arepricing in just 2bps ofhikes by March2027,basically staying onhold.By contrast, clear hikes are priced inatthe ECB,with59bps priced by March2027.Inother words,two25bp hikes are fullypriced, along with a roughly one-in-three chance of a third hike. The dislocation is that it's difficult to imagine a world where the ECB hike3times byMarch,buttheFed are staying on hold.Admittedly,theFed haveadualmandateforthelabourmarket,butrecentUSlabourmarketdatahasbeen robust,withunemploymentbroadlysteady,and we've just hadthestrongestpayrolls in15months.USgrowthmorebroadlyhasalsobeenstrong,and is clearly faster than the Eurozone right now. Meanwhile on the inflation side,US core PCE was at 3.2% in March,whereasEurozonecoreCPlwas2.3%thatmonth,before fallingto2.2% inAprilontheflashprint.Sogiventhedivergenceingrowthandcoreinflation,particularlywith globalenergypricesas akeydriver ofthat, it's strikingthatmarkets are simultaneouslypricing inmultiple ECBhikes overthenext 12months, and the Fed remaining on an extended pause. rates,theECBispricedforfasterhikes notably higherin the US... 3.IntheUSandEurope,bothHYandIGcreditspreadsaretighternowthanbeforea hawkish shift in central bank pricing. Even before yesterday's positive headlines on the Iran conflict, creditspreads were already tighter than their pre-conflict levels.That's striking when you consider that we've seen a clear energy shock,with oil prices still far above their initial levels, alongside downgrades toconsensus growthforecasts,as well as a hawkish central bank repricing.Moreover, it's not just the US where it's happened, even European HYhit from higher energy prices.If you just knew beforehand that there would be an energy shock, lowergrowth expectations,and a hawkish shift in central bank pricing,then theexpectationwouldhavebeenforhigherspreads like2022,nottighterones. despitebeingaregionmoreexposedtotheenergyshock werepriortotheIranconflict...Pre-Iran 4.Bigger picture, markets have retained a remarkable faith in longer-terminflation staying anchored aroundtarget.That's despite anotherenergy shock,several years of above-target inflation by now,and a persistent upward biashistorically as well. Despite recent events,longer-term inflation expectations have remainedaround target levels.Looking at the 5y5y forward inflation swap(expectations over the 5-year horizon starting in 5 years'time), they're at2.16% in the Euro Area, and 2.41% in the US. In both cases, that's within1ObpsoftheirlevelsbeforetheIranconflictstarted Butthisconfidencethatinflation will returntotargetis striking.Afterall,USPCE inflation has been above the Fed's target for 5years now. Similarly.EuroAreacoreCPlhasbeenabove2%for4.5years.Moreover,inflationisrisingonceagainthankstothelatestenergyshock,sothatpointstoanevenlongerperiod of above-targetinflation.Clearlyshocks happen,but what's also strikingaboutthis beliefis thatforIndeed,thereisn'ta single country in the worldthat'skeptaverage inflationbeneath2%sincetheendof theBrettonWoodssystem in1971. Thematic Research remained remarkably subdued sincetheIran conflictbegan,unlike