劳动节假期旅行受燃油价格上涨影响

ChinaHong KongMacao Labor Day travels impacted by higherfuel prices Chief Economist+852-2203 6139Deyun Ou growth,thoughthe pace was slowercompared to theQingmingholidayinApril.Thismoderationispartlyattributabletorisingfuelprices,whichcontributedtoadropinairtraveland a slowdown in cross-bordertourism.Meanwhile,policysupportforservice consumption remained effective,boosting revenue from performanceevents, whilegrowth ingoods consumption appears tohaveweakened. Economist+852-2203 6166 Mobilitygrowth slowed during the LaborDayholiday,withtotal passengertrafficgrowing 4% YoY overthefive-dayperiod-a deceleration from the 6%growth seenduring the Qingming Festival in April. This slowdown was primarily driven by airtravel, which declined by 5.8% YoY. Cross-border travel also slowed,with the number of international flightsremainingflat YoY,comparedto11%growth in theprioryear.The volumeofcross-borderpassengertrips alsodeceleratedsharplyto2%YoYfrom22%lastyear.ConsideringthatthenumberofvisitorstoHongKongandMacaoincreasedby6.3%YoY,thislikely suggests even weaker growth,ora potential decline,in thenumberof Chinese visitors to other international destinations. The slowdown in travelcan be partlyattributed totherise in aviationfuel prices.The average price of a flight ticket was 10% higher YoY, reflecting a significantincrease in fuel surcharges since April. Meanwhile,railway and road travelcontinuedto grow at a pace comparable to the Lunar New Year holiday. Services consumption has becomea main driver of domestic spending.Salesfromperformanceactivities rose17%YoY(comparedto3.6%lastyear).Theseeventshadastrongspillovereffect,asapproximately60%ofattendeeswerecross-city visitors, which in turn boosted the catering and accommodation sectors.Similarly,traffic at national-level scenic spots increased by5.8%YoY, a notableimprovement over previous years (-8% in 2024 and +5.2% in 2025).This reflectscontinuedpolicysupport,suchashostingfestiveevents andaligning schoolspringbreaks with the holiday in over 60 cities. Meanwhile,goods consumptiongrowth mayhave slowed further.Whilethegovernment has not yet released aggregate retail sales figures for the Labor Dayholiday,a Xinhua News report stated that"overallgoods consumption remainedstable,"which could suggests relatively muted growth.This is supported byanother data point:total sales at 78 key pedestrian streetsgrewby5.3%YoY, China Macro Appendix 1 *Otherinformationavailableuponrequest andothersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBank Research,pleasevisitourglobalDisclaimer.Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. AnalystCertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect thepersonal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s).In addition,the undersigned leadanalyst(s) has notand will not receiveanycompensationforprovidinga specificrecommendation orviewinthis report.YiXiong,Deyun Ou. China Macro The informationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyDeutsche Bank AGoroneof itsaffiliates (collectively'Deutsche Bank').Though the informationherein is believed tobe reliable and has beenobtained from public sources believed tobereport are provided for reader convenience only.Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for theaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsofthosewebsites. isincludedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oralorwritten)fromaDeutscheBankanalyst,DeutscheBankmayactasprincipal for its own account or as agent for anotherperson. including strategists,sales staff and other analysts,maytakeviews that are inconsistentwith thosetaken inthis researchreport.Deutsche Bank issues avariety_of research products,including fundamental analysis,equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis and trade ideas.Recommendations contained in onetype of communication may differ fromotherwise.DeutscheBankand/orits affiliatesmayalsobeholdingdebtorequitysecurities of theissuers itwriteson.Analystsare paid in part based on the profitability of Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliates,which includes investment banking,tradingand principal trading revenues. necessarilyreflecttheopinionsofDeutsche Bankandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.DeutscheBankprovides liquidityfor buyers and sellers of securities issued bythe companies it covers.DeutscheBankresearchanalystssometimeshaveshorter-term trade ideas thatmay be inconsistent withDeutsche Bank's existing longer-term ratings.Some trade ideas forequitiesarelistedasCatalystCallsontheResearchWebsite(https://research.db.com/Research/),andcanbefoundonthegeneralcoveragelistandalsoonthecoveredcompany'spage.ACatalystCallrepresentsahigh-convictionbeliefbyananalystthata stockwilloutperformorunderperformthemarketand/oraspecified sectoroveratimeframeofnolessthantwoweeksand nomore than three months.In additionto Catalyst Calls,analysts may occasionally discuss with our clients,and withDeutsche Bank salespersons andtraders,trading strategies orideas that reference catalysts or even