SMCI 2026财年第三季度：过山车仍在继续...

Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com U.S. IT Hardware Super Micro Computer Inc April Li+1 917 344 8339april.li@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Phoebe Sun+1 917 344 8481phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com Price Target SMCI 37.00 USD SMCI FQ3'26: The Rollercoaster continues... Yesterday after market close, SMCI reported FQ3’26 earnings beat due to better gross margin.Shares were up 18% post market at time of writing. FQ3 revenue missed (again) - this is the 8thtopline miss in the last 9 quarters.Thecompany blamed customer push outs due to datacenter readiness and commented thatbacklog is at an all-time high (again) without providing any evidence (again). On the brightside Enterprise sales hit 28% of revenue up from 15% in the prior quarter and this appears tobe a large driver of the gross margin upside surprise. Gross margin surprised to the upside beating the FQ3 EPS beat.The 10.1% grossmargin (up from 6.4% in FQ2, and 6.7% in the guidance) was a significant beat and this alonewas responsible for the 34% beat in EPS ($0.84 vs. $0.63 consensus). Lower expeditioncosts and higher enterprise mix were called out as reasons for the strong gross margin.We also believe that their largest FQ2 customer (we believe a large US data center) alsodisappointed in revenue for whatever reason (maybe share loss to Dell?) and this alsosignificantly helped gross margin. On net, we tweak up estimates slightly on slightly lower revenue more than offsetby higher gross margin.Although the company has a miserable track record of8 revenuemisses and 7 EPS misses out of the last 9 quarters, we give the company some benefitof the doubt though we doremain concerned that customers may want to distancethemselves from the companygiven the recent smuggling indictment. Our FY27 EPSlands at $2.80 (up from $2.67) vs. consensus at $3.03. Investment Implications We maintain Market-Perform and maintain target price at $37(13% upside to postermark price at time of writing). This implies a slightly lower 13.2x PE on our new FY27 EPS(vs. 14x before) . We note that SMCI’s PE has trended down from a 3 year avg of 16.6x toyesterdays levels of 9.6x given concerns around the smuggling case. 5yr avg PE is 13.9x. DETAILS Yesterday after the market close, SMCI reported FQ3’26 earnings which EPS beat due to better gross margin. Shares were up18% post market at time of writing on the gross margin beat. FQ3’26 results beat powered by a significant gross margin uptick though revenue tumbled. FQ3’26 revenue missed consensus, guidance and us.Revenue came in at $10.3bn (vs. consensus/us at $12.4bn) andmissed the guidance of “at least 12.3 billion”. Management cited impacts from customers’ site readiness and ongoing industry-wide supply chain constraints, particularly in memory, but also CPUs and GPUs. Several customer sites were not yet equippedwith the power and networking infrastructure required for cloud deployments, resulting in a portion of revenue being deferredinto future quarters. On the call, management mentioned that the order backlog reached another record high; however, nospecific number was disclosed hence no way to verify. A notably higher enterprise mix alongside a lower revenue contribution from the large data center customer.Q3enterprise revenue totaled $2.8 billion, ~28% of revenue versus 15% in the prior quarter. The OEM appliance and large datacenter segment revenue was $7.4 billion, ~72% of Q3 revenue versus 85% in the last quarter. In Q3 FY26, SMCI reportedtwo existing customers each accounting for more than 10% of revenue: one large data center customer representing 27% ofrevenue and one enterprise customer representing 10% of revenue. We believe the 27% data center customer is the samecustomer that accounted for approximately 63% of total revenue in the prior quarter, which we believe to be a large US datacenter. An earlier report indicated that Super Micro’s business with a large US data center appears to have slowed following thecompletion of shipments for the Colossus 2 data center earlier this year, with the next Rubin platform still several months away,potentially creating a gap before incremental demand resumes. Gross margin expanded significantly in Q3, driven by favorable mix and lower miscellaneous fees/charges.Q3 non-GAAP gross margin increased to 10.1% from 6.4% in Q2, well above the 6.7% guidance provided. The margin expansion wasdriven by a more favorable customer and product mix, lower tariffs, reduced expedite fees, and fewer inventory reserve charges.The December quarter included unusually high expedite costs that did not recur in the March quarter. The reduced revenue mixfrom that large data center customer also supported overall margin improvement. Management highlighted strong enterprisedemand, particularly for agentic AI inferencing workloads, alongside continued momentum in traditional servers, storage, andemerging areas such as IoT, with the company gradually expanding its support and