高电压：全球工业电气化潜力

HighVoltage The global potential for industrial electrification Cassandra Etter-Wenzel and Jan RosenowApril 2026 Partners: EMBER; Energy Innovation Policy & Technology LLC; Natural Resources Defense Council Citation Etter-Wenzel, C., Rosenow, J. (2026):High voltage: the global potential for electrifying industry. Oxford:Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford. Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge the members of the steering committee (Uni Lee, Jeffrey Rissman, andDr. Carrie Schoeneberger) for their review and feedback on earlier drafts of this report. The contents andfindings of this report are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of thesteering committee members or their organisations. Partners Contents Introduction6 1Why industrial electrification?8 2.1Meta-review of existing bottom-up studies102.2Global potential from climate models (1,600+ scenarios)11 3Impact on carbon emissions reduction 4From potential to practice 4.1Key barriers204.2Policy priorities to unlock high electrification potential22 Conclusions23 Annex: Methodology25 1Overview252Scenario data and sources253Variable selection and harmonization264Construction of Electrification Shares275Limitations and next steps28 References29 WHY THIS MATTERS NOW Industrial energy security in an era of repeatedprice shocks Global industry is operating in an environment of recurring fossil fuel priceshocks. The 2022 gas crisis forced factory closures and production shiftsacross Europe and beyond, with many energy-intensive sectors yet to fullyrecover.More recently, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have againpushed up oil and gas prices, renewing pressure on industrial producers. The impact of these price shocks is global. Whilst the 2022 crisis was feltmost sharply in Europe, Asia experienced a surge in liquefied natural gas(LNG) prices that led to factory shutdowns in Pakistan and Bangladesh andraised input costs for manufacturers in Japan and South Korea. The effectsof the current energy crisis are most pronounced when it comes to the Asianeconomy and industrial base. The latest price increases linked to Hormuzare once again feeding through into industrial energy costs across energy-importing economies. These episodes are not isolated events but reflect a structural feature of fossilfuel markets: exposure to geopolitical disruption and price volatility. Industry —which still relies predominantly on fossil fuels for process heat — is particularlyexposed. Electrification offers a structural response to this risk. By shifting industrialenergy demand from internationally traded fossil fuels to domestically gener-ated electricity, it can reduce exposure to price shocks while enabling deepemissions reductions. Executive summary KEY METRICS 51%Median for high-ambition pathways 90% 84% Upper-bound potentialby 2050 Technical ceiling fromengineering studies Under the most ambitious policyscenarios from the global modelsensemble. Of industrial energy demandcould theoretically be electrifiedwith existing and emerging tech-nologies. Median outcome across high-electrification scenarios —achievable with strong policy. Industrial electrification can reshape industrial emis-sions trajectories, reduce energy import dependencyand improve resilience to energy price volatility. En-gineering studies show thatup to 90% of industrialenergy demand could ultimately be electrifiedwith existing and emerging technologies. fuels with zero and low-carbon electricity, unlockingdeeper decarbonisation pathways. The ongoing energy crisis that started in February2026 demonstrates how relying on fossil fuels forindustrial processes is a risky strategy leaving indus-trial facilities exposed to international energy pricevolatility and supply constraints.Electrification canimprove industrial energy security. Global scenario modelling corroborates this ceiling.Under the most ambitious climate pathways, indus-trial electrification reaches approximately 85% by2050 — representing the upper limit of current mod-elling under the most enabling assumptions.Withthe right policy support in place, the median ofhigh-ambition scenarios points to around 51%by 2050.Taken together, two independent linesof evidence converge on the same conclusion: thetechnical potential for widespread industrial electri-fication exists; the question is whether policy actsfast enough to realise it. This report is not a forecast of what will happenautomatically. It is an assessment of what is demon-strably achievable within current modelling frame-works and emerging technologies under conditionsof strong climate ambition, rapid power-sector decar-bonisation, and sustained policy support. The core policy message is that we must act nowto ensure we meet these emissions reductiongoals.In the global scenario ensembles, the electri-fication levels of ambitious pathways in 2050 reach amedian of ~ 51% and a much higher upp