三花智控：下游需求疲软拖累一季度增长；利润率保持韧性

Dien Wang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2622dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com Asia Emerging Robotics Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co., Ltd. Jay Huang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2631jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com Rating Market-Perform Weibin Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2666weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Sanhua: Soft downstream demand pressured 1Q growth; marginsremain resilient Sanhua reported 1Q2026 results (Exhibit 1), with revenue up 1% YoY and net profit up 3%YoY, reflecting the headwinds from softer downstream demand this year. Encouragingly, thecompany’s GP margin remained resilient at 28% (Exhibit 3) despite rising raw material costs(Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). Management provided limited updates on its robotic business and Close Date29 Apr 2026002050.CH Close Price (CNY)44.82Price Target (CNY)39.00Upside/(Downside)(13)%52-Week Range60.77/23.80ASIAX1,854.85FYEDecDiv Yield0.9%Market Cap (CNY) (M)180,509EV (CNY) (M)173,578 In 1Q2026, Sanhua’s HVAC revenue and net profit declined by 6% YoY and 12% YoY,respectively, mainly due to a high base last year and soft demand in the U.S. during thequarter. The company reiterated its target that emerging businesses (e.g., liquid cooling,energy storage) will grow by 50~100% YoY in 2026. Although management anticipated thissegment to grow in 2Q2026, downstream weakness appears to be persisting. According For Sanhua’s automotive segment, 1Q revenue and net profit grew by 15% YoY and 23%YoY, respectively, driven by solid export growth from Chinese automakers and a risingcontribution from integrated modules, which accounted for 45–50% of segment revenue(vs. 37% in 2024). Despite soft downstream demand in 1Q, e.g., China’s wholesale xEV Investment Implications Reiterate MP. We maintain our DCF-based PT of CNY 39 and HKD 27 unchanged. The TPimplies a 35x forward PE at end-2026. DETAILS APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernstein Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co., Ltd. We use DCF as the primary valuation method. We set target prices at CNY 39.0 and HKD 27.0 for its A-Share and H-Share,respectively, based on WACC of 8.2% and terminal growth rate of 3.0%. They reflect our long term forecast of the company’sexisting core business and rising contribution from robotics. We use PE method as a reference, with our target price implies a 35x RISKS Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co., Ltd. Potential upside risks include: 1) Tesla shows material progress in automotive or robotics; 2) significant progress in data centersand energy storage; and 3) release of specialized heat management solutions for robotics. Downside risks include: 1) Tesla failsto meet investors’ expectations in automotives or robotics; 2) diminished investor interest in humanoid robots due to absence RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL) for stocks listed on the Japanese The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: •Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp •Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp Coverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targetsare suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should therefore not be relied upon. Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company