快速摘要：中石油2026年第一季度——中石油加速发展，开局稳健

Quick Take: PetroChina 1Q26 - Solid start to the year asPetroChina steps on the gas The good: PetroChina reported 1Q26 net income of RMB48.3bn or RMB0.26/share (+2%yo-y) which was in line with consensus RMB0.27/share but slightly lower than our RMB0.29.Cash flow from operations (ex-WC) increased more than earnings which came to RMB129bn(+13% y-o-y). Natural gas marketing EBIT rose by 40% y-o-y to RMB18.9bn driven by stronggas sales and lower imported gas cost (despite higher spot LNG prices). Gas sales reached93.9bcm (+6.9% y-o-y) with domestic sales of 73.8bcm (+3.5% y-o-y). Refining EBITincreased by 58% y-o-y to RMB7.2bn helped by inventory gains. Refining throughput was343MMbls (+1.7% y-o-y) which is 25% of FY target of 1,377MMbls (+0.1% y-o-y). RefiningEBIT margin rose to $3.1/bbl (+65% y-o-y). The marketing segment saw EBIT of RMB6.5bn(+28% y-o-y). Domestic fuel sales grew to 28.0MT (+1.8% y-o-y). Chemical segment EBITincreased by 32% y-o-y to RMB1.1bn with strong chemical production (top 5 products)growth to were 7.9MT (+14% y-o-y). Chem EBIT margins were positive at RMB140/T(+16% y-o-y) despite higher feedstock price. Free cash flow (ex-WC) was RMB74bn (+32%y-o-y). Capex fell by 5% to RMB54.6bn which represents 20% of FY guidance. At the end of1Q26, PetroChina had net cash of RMB40bn with net gearing of -2% (vs. -2% by 1Q25). The bad:Upstream performance came in weaker than expected. E&P operating income fellby 12% y-o-y to RMB41.0bn despite higher Brent oil price (+4% y-o-y). Total oil and gasproduction came in at 470MMboe (+0.7% y-o-y) which is 25% of FY target of 1,853MMboe.Average realized crude price was US$64.1/boe (-8.5% y-o-y) and gas price was US$8.96/mscf (-1% y-o-y). Oil and gas lifting costs increased by 0.6% y-o-y to $9.8/boe. The bottom line:On balance, we view this as a constructive print. PetroChina delivered asolid 1Q26 with resilient earnings, strong downstream and gas contributions, and robustfree cash flow, despite headwinds from weaker upstream price realization. The quarter wasbroadly in line with consensus and only modestly below our forecast, while cash flow fromoperations ex-WC and free cash flow both grew faster than earnings, underlining a healthybalance sheet and improving cash generation. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS PetroChina results were in line with expectations. While upstream was slightly weaker than expected, downstream and naturalgas segments exceeded our expectations (although in the case of refining this could be helped by inventory gains). With Brentcurrently averaging US$104/bbl for April (vs. US$78/bbl for 1Q26) we expect materially higher earnings in 2Q26. Where we gofrom here depends on the duration of the conflict in the Middle East. The longer this goes on, the higher the oil price will go. WithPetroChina trading on a P/E of <9x and 50% payout ratio, investors should expect a mid to high single digit dividend yield thisyear. Given the secular gas growth opportunity for PetroChina in the long term, we believe this is an attractive risk reward andrate the company Outperform. RESULTS DETAIL EXHIBIT 1:Petrochina results vs estimates •E&P•Realized crude price was $64.1/bbl (-8.5% y-o-y)•Realized gas price was $8.96/mcf (-1% y-o-y).•Unit lifting costs were $9.8/boe (+0.6% y-o-y).•Gas production was 1,394Bcf (+2.4% y-o-y); 2026 gas production is targeted at 5,470Bcf (+2.0% y-o-y).•Oil production was 238MMbls (-1.0% y-o-y); 2026 oil production is targeted at 941.3MMbbls (-0.7% y-o-y).•Total production was 470MMboe (+0.7% y-o-y); 2026 upstream production is targeted at 1,853MMboe (+0.6% y-o-y).•Proven oil and gas reserves were largely flat at 18,236MMboe, representing a proven reserves life of 9.9 years; overallreserves replacement rate was 96%.•Refining and Chemicals•Refining throughput was 343MMbls (+1.7% y-o-y); 2026 refining throughput is targeted at 1,377.1MMboe (+0.1% y-o-y).•Fuel production was 28.5MT (flat y-o-y).•Domestic fuel sales were 28.0MT (+1.8% y-o-y).•Chemical production for top 5 products were 7.9MT (+14% y-o-y).•Natural Gas•Total natural gas sales were 93.9bcm (+6.9% y-o-y).•Domestic gas sales were 73.8bcm (+3.5% y-o-y)•Net gearing remains low with solid FCF and cash balances.•PetroChina delivered FCF (ex-WC) of RMB74bn (+32% y-o-y).•FY26 capex is expected to increase by 4% y-o-y to RMB279bn•Net cash was RMB40bn •Net gearing was -2% (vs -2% at 1Q25). PEER COMPARISON Summary of key financial and valuation metrics for the Asia-Pacific oil majors and E&Ps based on Bernstein estimates areshown in the following tables. EXHIBIT 7:PetroChina DCF valuation INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate PetroChina Outperform with a price target of HKD11.1. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1