新的全球失衡

PARIS REPORT 4 The New Global Imbalances Edited by Hélène Rey, Beatrice Weder di Mauro,and Jeromin Zettelmeyer THE NEW GLOBAL IMBALANCES Paris Report 4 In collaboration with Bruegel CEPR PRESS Centre for Economic Policy Research187 boulevard Saint-Germain75007, Paris, France 2 Coldbath SquareLondon EC1R 5HL, UK Tel: +44 (20) 7183 8801Fax: +44 (20) 7183 8820Email: cepr@cepr.orgWeb: www.cepr.org ISBN: 978-1-917343-01-5 © 2026 CEPR Press THE NEW GLOBAL IMBALANCES Paris Report 4 In collaboration with Bruegel Edited byHélène ReyLondon Business School and CEPR Beatrice Weder di MauroGeneva Graduate Institute, INSEAD and CEPR Jeromin ZettelmeyerBruegel and CEPR CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH (CEPR) The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) is a network of almost 1,900 researcheconomists based mostly in European universities. The Centre’s goal is twofold: to promoteworld-class research, and to get the policy-relevant results into the hands of key decision-makers. CEPR’s guiding principle is ’Research excellence with policy relevance’. It was foundedin the UK in 1983, where it is a Charity, and in November 2019 CEPR initiated the creation ofan Association under French law, in order to provide a vehicle for an expansion in France. Themembers of the Conseil d’Administration of the Association are identical to the UK Board ofTrustees. CEPR is independent of all public and private interest groups. It takes no institutional stand oneconomic policy matters and its core funding comes from its Institutional Members, projectsthat it runs and sales of publications. Because it draws on such a large network of researchers,its output reflects a broad spectrum of individual viewpoints as well as perspectives drawnfrom civil society. CEPR research may include views on policy, but the Trustees/members ofthe Conseil d’Administration of the Association do not give prior review to its publications. Theopinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and not those of CEPR. Sir Charlie BeanRichard PortesBeatrice Weder di MauroMaristella BotticiniAntonio FatásUgo PanizzaHélène ReyTessa Ogden Chair of the BoardFounder and Honorary PresidentPresidentVice Presidents BRUEGEL Bruegel is an independent and non-doctrinal Brussels-based European think tank specialisingin economics. Its mission is to improve the quality of economic policy with open and fact-basedresearch, analysis and debate. Established in 2005 as a non-profit international associationunder Belgian law (AISBL), Bruegel is supported by 18 EU Member States and the UnitedKingdom, 49 international corporations, and 19 international institutions. Bruegel is committed to impartiality, openness and excellence. Bruegel’s research is builtaround a focused medium-term research programme. Within this time horizon research outputfollows an annual research programme. Bruegel’s statement on research integrity, to which allresearchers are contractually bound, sets out rules for the avoidance of political, national orcommercial conflicts of interest which could harm the integrity of Bruegel’s research. Bruegel’sscholars and managers also make an annual declaration of outside interests. Erkki LiikanenJeromin Zettelmeyer Chair of the BoardDirector Contents About the contributorsForeword xvi1The new global imbalances: Why care, why now, and what can be done1Beatrice Weder di Mauro and Jeromin Zettelmeyer2Global imbalances: Current state and scenarios for the path ahead35Ravi Balakrishnan3Historical perspectives67Barry Eichengreen4Global imbalances redux85Maurice Obstfeld5Global imbalances then and now: Should we be concerned?123Thomas Harr and Signe Krogstrup6Global imbalances: A progress report145Oleg Itskhoki and Dmitry Mukhin7An institutional and governance perspective to understanding external imbalances171George Papaconstantinou8The return of global imbalances? The US case187Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti9Stablecoins and global imbalances: Attempting to preserve the US exorbitantprivilege207Gilles Moec10 Rebalancing of the Chinese economy: Challenges and policy options221Yiping Huang11The Chinese current account imbalances: Puzzles, patterns, and possible causes235Chang Ma and Shang-Jin Wei12 Global imbalances, industrial policies, and the challenge of surging Chinese tradesurpluses263Sébastien Jean13The European Union’s external imbalances: Past, future, and policy291Zsolt Darvas, Costanza Greppi, Alexandre Mendonça, Camille Reverdy, Bo Sangers andJeromin Zettelmeyer14 The European Union under pressure? Exploring Chinese trade deflection321Charlotte Emlinger, Isabelle Mejan, Kevin Lefebvre, and Vincent Vicard15 Global imbalances then and now: Lessons from the Plaza Accord355Takeo Hoshi16 Reconciling domestic goals with global adjustment: Challenges for Indian economicmanagement367Suman Bery17Financial flows to developing countries383Anusha Chari About the contributors Ravi Balakrishnanis a Non-Resident Fellow at Bruegel and Group Head of Countr