全球经济状况调查：2026年第一季度（英）

Global accountants’ confidence close to record lows amid heighteneduncertainty and rising costs. The ACCA and IMA Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) suggested that confidence among globalaccountants fell sharply in Q1 2026 (see Chart 1). ■Confidence among accountants and financeprofessionals globally falls close to pandemic-era lows,with cost pressures rising near to the series highs set inthe aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Sentiment is at its third-lowest ever, only previously weaker at thebeginning of the pandemic in Q1 and Q2 2020. The survey wasconducted between 3 and 19 March and hence the outbreak ofhostilities in the Middle East will have been a major factor weighingon sentiment amid a surge in geopolitical uncertainty and the priceof energy and some other important commodities. ■There were improvements, however, in the GlobalNew Orders and Employment indices, likely owingto the resilience of global growth ahead of the onsetof the conflict in the Middle East. Indeed, ‘International and geopolitical instability’ jumped to the topof the list of surveyed accountants’ risk priorities (see‘Geopoliticsreshapes risk landscape for accountants’below). The depressedlevel of confidence clearly makes for sobering reading, althoughit is worth noting that the index is broadly similar to its level in Q12025, after a sharp decline in the aftermath of the US presidentialelection. There was a particularly sharp fall in confidence amongchief financial officers (CFOs), which is now at its weakest since Q12020 (seeChart 2), albeit well above that record low. ■Enormous uncertainty clouds the global economy,with developments in the Middle East likely to beabsolutely key over coming weeks and months. ■‘International and geopolitical instability’unsurprisingly jumped to the top of globalaccountants’ risk priorities in Q1, for only thesecond time since the global risks survey was addedto the GECS in Q2 2023. In second and third placewere cybersecurity and economic-related risks. ‘Despite a fall in confidence to a very low level inQ1, there were improvements in the Global NewOrders and Employment indices.’ The message emanating from some of our other key indicatorswas a bit more encouraging (seeChart 1). After previously hittinga post-pandemic low in Q4 2025, the forward-looking GlobalNew Orders Index registered a solid increase in Q1. It is now atits historical average1level and broadly in the centre of the rangeof readings recorded since the aftermath of Russia’s invasion ofUkraine. The Global Employment Index, which captures the hiringand firing decisions of firms, also improved somewhat, whileremaining below its historical average. Meanwhile, there was avery small fall in the Global Capital Expenditure Index. It remainsbelow the series average but is at a level not too dissimilar frommany of its other readings over the past several years. AmongCFOs, there was a notable improvement in the New Orders Indexfrom quite a low level in Q4 (seeChart 2), although the series canbe quite volatile at times.2 The resilience of some of our key indicators is likely owing tothe fact that the global economy was in relatively decent shapebefore the recent developments in the Middle East, amid thecurrent global artificial intelligence (AI) boom, favourable globalfinancial conditions and fiscal easing in a number of majoreconomies. Nevertheless, the rise in energy and other commodityprices and significant increase in uncertainty, create majordownside risks for global growth. Key is whether a permanentcessation of hostilities can be agreed over coming weeks. ‘Confidence among CFOs fell very sharply in Q1and is significantly below its historical average.’ ‘The proportion of global accountants reportingincreased operating costs rose by five percentagepoints in Q1 and is now close to its historical highin Q3 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.’ Regarding price pressures facing firms, the proportion ofaccountants globally reporting ‘increased costs’ rose by fivepercentage points in Q1 2026. Among survey respondents, 69%reported increased operating costs, well above the 48% medianreading over the survey history, and close to the series all-time peakof 71% in Q3 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (seeChart 3). Developments in the Middle East will be key in determining theextent of additional cost pressures facing firms over comingmonths and quarters. Around 20% of global oil production andliquefied natural gas exports usually transit through the Strait ofHormuz, which has been largely blocked since the recent onsetof hostilities. With only a portion of that being able to be re-routed,and given damage to some production facilities across the region,the global economy has been experiencing a major energysupply shock. This will increase both the costs of production andtransport of goods. Cost pressures were already elevated in Q4 2025, and the furtherrise likely reflects some of the early impacts from the sur