Amazon.com, Inc 第一季度预览：AI 积压订单使 AWS 重回焦点

We view AMZN positioned for Q1 upside on AWS accel, resilient retail demand,& improving mgn. We anchor on AWS growth of ~25% y/y vs. ~28-30% bogey,w/ RPO growth likely seeing upside well over 40% y/y on AI-driven bookingsmomentum & better leading signals. Our '26 EBIT ($102B, +145bps y/y) looksachievable as mgn expand on cost discipline (RIFs, tariff relief & logisticsefficiency). At 11x EBITDA vs. WMT's 21x, AMZN offers attractive R/R into theprint. Buy. Compelling set-up.At 11x CY27E EV/EBITDA, AMZN remains deeply discounted, & well underWMT’s ~21x & its own 10yr avg of 17x (FY2), even after a 19% rally post Q4 & on higher expectations.Entering the print w/ the easiest comp of the yr across segments + Jassy's letter confidence boost,we see potential for upward rev revisions driven by accelerating AWS momentum, increasingly pos.leading indicators (e.g. Anthropic & OAI commits), & durable consumer demand amid macro noise.While debates remain, our checks highlighted robust cloud strength w/ pricing leverage, strong Q1e-comm & logistics-driven efficiency. Although Q1 guide absorbs $1B of higher Leo costs, we seeunderlying trends (coupled w/ 16K RIF roll-out in late Jan) supporting EBIT towards high end (JEFe/St EBIT $21.4B/$20.9B). AWS acceleration strengthens into Q1. AWS comps turn 2 pts easier (17% in 1Q25 vs. 19% in4Q24), with Q1 bogey ~28%-30% vs. JEFe/St at 25.2%/25.6%. Backlog growth should re-accelabove 40% in Q1 despite +38% y/y in 4Q25 & 6pt tougher comps (1Q25/4Q24: 20%/14%) driven bysustained AI demand. Recent developments (Anthropic's $100B AWS commit & 5GW of securedcapacity + OAI's $100B commit expansion) reinforce AWS as a core infra partner for frontier AI,supporting backlog visibility & LT capacity confidence. Field checks (Cloud call recap, CIO AI survey,cyber check) point to broad-based cloud strength, w/ AWS tracking inline, reinforcing a durablemid-20s AWS y/y growth for FY26 (JEFe raised to 25.5% vs. St. 25.5%). Our cloud expert notedaccelerating Bedrock inference demand, w/ Opus-driven constraints enabling AWS pricing leverage.Longer term, Trainium should support better AI economics, though current capex keeps NT AWSmgn upside muted (Q1 EBIT mgn JEFe/St: 36%/35.6%), & we expect capex to flex as needed tosupport constrained capacity. Retail holds amid macro drag.Our Q1 retail (ex-AWS) revenue of $142B (+12% y/y) looks achievableon a 2-pt easier comp, arguably the best setup of the year. Consumer demand remains resilient,with e-comm checks pointing to a strong Q1 and bullish plans into ’26. We model a healthy~10% FY26 retail rev growth (vs. 11% in ’25), with potential EBIT upside driven by fuel surchargeuplift, automation & fulfillment flywheel, tariff relief, and RIFs. Alongside a growing Ads businesssupported by AMZN DSP traction, we expect retail opm of 5.8% in Q1 (vs. 5.4%/7.0% in 1Q25/4Q25)& ~114 bps of margin expansion for the year.Expert recaps, full preview table & more inside The Long View: Amazon.com, Inc Investment Thesis Risk/Reward - 12 Month View •AMZN keeps gaining market share by reducing friction for shoppers (betterselection, product availability, convenience)•AMZN’s ability to get purchases to consumers fast is a big differentiatorthat drives growth in existing and new categories•The global AWS and advertising opportunities are driving overall revenuegrowth with corresponding margin accretion to the whole business•Investment in AWS, content, and fulfillment supports expansion into newproducts, services, and geographies with sizable potential Downside Scenario,$160, -37% Upside Scenario,$330, +29% Base Case,$300, +18% •Geopoliticaleventsdisruptinternationalmarkets•Continued investment pressures margins forlonger than expected•Higher digital content costs slowing marginimprovement•Inflationary costs pressures end up being morepermanent•Growth in high-margin business(AWS andadvertising) decelerate faster than anticipated•Chinese retailers like Temu, Shein and Tiktokimpact AMZN in the U.S.•Downside price target: $160; Based on 7.7x '27EEV/ EBITDA •AMZN benefits across its entire ecosystemfrom behavioral changes resulting from theCOVID pandemic•Market leadership in fulfillment and CloudComputingdrives LT revenue growth andmargin improvement•Mix shift to 3P sales and faster growth ofhigher-margin businesses (AWS, advertising)drive margins up•AWS growth accelerates•Price target: $300; based on 14.6x '27E EV/EBITDA •Faster margin improvement as more-profitablebusinesses scale•Revenue growth accelerates,driven by unitgrowth•Incremental margin improvement on slowingcapex spend•AWS growth materially accelerates.•Upside price target: $330; Based on 16.1x '27EEV/ EBITDA Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top Material Issue(s):1) Customer Privacy:Risk management for personal information it is inpossession of. This is a top issue for eCommerce companies like AMZN that collect and rely on userdata to provide targeted advertisements. Regulators are increasingly focused on