CEO议程：2026年近岸外包是你的盲点吗？

The nearshoring myth ofcost advantages Strategy&March 2026 Many nearshoring initiatives have failed to make expectedsavings; reassessment is needed to safeguard competitiveness Executive summary •Since 2000,multi-hundred billion eurosof economic value have beenre-shored to CEE•Nearshoringis mostly usedto cut costs, butmany executives2still seerisingcosts as a growth constraint •CEE nearshoring business casesstruggle in today's reality(further intensified through US tariffs), andoftenfailto deliver the expected savings and contribution to competitiveness3due to 1)Labor costsrising 3.5x fasterthan productivity,2)Chinese automation levels2-6x highercompared to CEE,3)Manufacturinglabor shortage 16% highervs. Germany, driven by critical gaps in medium-skilled roles, •Offshoring to Asia offers 55% labor arbitrageon average versus nearshoring to CEE3. China’s labor productivity(65% increase since 2015), automation levels, and overcapacity couldfurther widen this gap3 •Geopolitical resilience is inadequate to justify this gap;accordingly, nearshoring activities requirereevaluation Way forward: Acomprehensive approachis needed toevaluate strategic responses to global competitionbeyondprice andcombine nearshoring with internal restructuring, offshoring, and automation Firms are increasingly stuck in vicious cycles, where limitedproductivity and org. complexity prevent competitiveness No respite in 2026: ongoing structural pressure, lower FDI1,protectionism, and Asian overcapacity Outlook 2026 and drivers–Germany Asian overcapacityshifts competitive •>25%expect theirbusiness situation todeteriorate;only~15 %anticipate improvement•~37%rate theircompetitivenessaslowvs.non-EU peers•~78%report business •Asianovercapacityandtrade shifts arereshapingmanufacturing•Asian low-cost exportsareincreasingly enteringEuropean markets(e.g.,2024 global steel over-capacity of 602 Mt, drivenby ~118 Mt Chinese •High energyandlaborcosts(~30% above EUaverage3) plusrising CO₂costs(EU ETS4tightening, CBAM5implementation) furtherincrease production costsrelative to global peers •Europe’sFDI inflowsarefalling5, signalingweakerattractivenessand tighter capital •Chinaleadsindustrialroboticswith ~300krobotsinstalledin20248alone•Next-level developmentsincl.AI-driven humanoidrobotswillfurther improve •Flows areshiftingtoemerging marketsandNorth America(boosted by US Investtargetedinautomationandrobotics Prioritizestrategicinvestmentto stay Reevaluatesupply chains,sourcing, and productionfootprint Rising costs and stagnant productivity in Germany are drivingcompanies to move activities to off-/nearshore Off-/nearshoring activities Key takeaways •Rising labor costsandweakproductivity growthareerodingGermany’scost competitiveness•Germanlabor costsare~30% abovetheEU average, compressingmanufacturing margins•External shockslike COVID-19, theRussia-Ukraine conflict, and the energy (2010-2017=100, number of FTE, announced projects which are tracked in the EU restructuring monitor) Off-/nearshoring needs a criticalreviewto determine its successandcompetitiveness While most manufacturers moved production to CEE, savingshave been limited–highlighting Asia as a promising alternative Nearshoring cost challenges Diverging cost and productivity trends across CEE requirereassessment of optimal locations for nearshoring Deep dive: Labor productivity and cost Key insights Lack of automation in CEE often results in lower realized near-shoring benefits vs. Germany or China-based outsourcing Deep dive: Impact of automation on nearshoring benefits Key insights •By 2023,China had alreadyovertaken Germanyin termsof robot density–robot densitynow >2x EU levels (~2-6x CEE),indicatingproductivityadvantage•Energy costs act as anadditionalcompetitiveadvantage for China(electricity~0.25x and natural gas ~0.5xcheaper vs. Germany)2•Chinese industrial robotinstallation rate ~10xGermany and ~4x EU,whilemanufacturing value add only Expected manufacturing labor shortages in CEE requirequalification demands to be matched to local talent pools Deep dive: Manufacturing labor shortage in CEE Comments •The manufacturing labor shortage is16% higher in CEE than in Germany, •High-skilled roles show medium tohigh shortagesin both Germany and •Medium-skilled roles present astructural gap–low shortages in •Low-skilled roles are severelyconstrained in Germany, while CEEshortages vary widely •Nearshoring success hinges onaligning qualification demands with Asian countries remain attractive for offshoring–despiteincreases, wages and energy prices are significantly lower Deep dive: Development of Asian offshoring countries •Electricity prices in Asian offshoring countries areat least US$70/MWh lowerthan in CEEnearshoring countries and Germany •Energy costswill be thedetermining factorin onshoring, nearshoring, andoffshoring decisions; nearshoring does not provide protection against high •Nonetheless,wages are below 10%ofGermany’son average Declini