全球存储技术：HBM/LTA热度降温，长期短缺，基板/MLCC回暖

Weekly theme: toned-down HBM/LTA, L-Tshortages, substrate/MLCC upturn Industry Overview 24 April 2026 Chipmakers less enthusiastic on HBM and LTAs EquityGlobalTechnology Our new analysissuggests memory chipmakers have recently become less enthusiasticabout expanding HBM capacity after 1Q results. Three reasons: (1) conventional DRAM(mostly LPDDR5) much more profitable vs HBM; (2) slightly muted HBM4 order growth,and (3) rapidly rising KV cache memory-based AI inferencing using NAND. Thus, someunused capex budget (initially earmarked for HBM) seem to be used for conventionalDRAM and even NAND. Separately, some chipmakers alluded to reduced interest in LTA(long-term agreement)-based chip sales, given the growing number of customers payinghigher DRAM and NAND contract prices each quarter. Chipmakers’concerns (about LTA)are limited price/profit upside If memory chip supply shortages persist into 2027-28 orthe risk of broken long-term contracts if a downturn emerges. Overall, we expect 2Hearnings growth (vs 2Q) to be more dependent on conventional memory (instead ofHBM4), while new LTA-based long-term contracts may grow less (the majority 2H26-1H27 conventional memory sales still quarterly price negotiation basis, in our view). Simon Woo, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul)+82 2 3707 0554simon.woo@bofa.com Dai Shen>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)dai.shen@bofa.com Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofASvivek.arya@bofa.com Mikio Hirakawa>>Research AnalystBofAS Japanmikio.hirakawa@bofa.com Lower expectationsfor 2028 wafer capacity expansion Investors maybe concerned about sizable DRAM wafer capacity to be added from newlyconstructed shell fabs in Korea/the US, particularly in 2028. However, most chipmakersappear to expect only 50-60k wpm capacity addition at max for each fab in 2028. True,clean room space (of the new fab) can offer even 100k pa, but high execution risks (1dnode, etc) to run a new fab with large scale is likely to make chipmakers to add front-endwafer fabrication equipment on a more disciplined basis. This suggests only single-digit% wafer capacity growth for entire global DRAM industry. We believe chipmakers’long-term bullish view (shortage) is also based on this type of new wafer capacityexpansion constraints. Nonetheless, TCB equipment will be strongly demanded in 2028,which is mainly for 16-/20-HBM4e (to be used Rubin Ultra and more advanced AI ASICs). Matt Shin>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul)matt.shin2@bofa.com Memory spot price correctionaccelerated, led by DDR4 DDR4 (legacy DRAM) is now less demandedin the spot market (due to 50%+ pricepremium vs DDR5). Thus, its spot price has declined more notably this week (down 5-8%). That said, DDR5 (much cheaper vs DDR4 despite higher spec) remained stable. Webelieve this trend may continue into June (DDR5’s outperformance vs DDR4). Korea’supbeat semis exports (up 182% YoY for the first 20 days of April) are mostly based onDDR5, HBM and NAND (DDR4 portion to be sub-1% of total memory shipments). Rising optimism on Korea’s substrate/MLCC We are morebullish on Korea’s substrate/MLCC, which should be further in demand byUS Big Tech. Like DRAM, if conventional MLCC/substrate capacity (for IT) is used for AIserver, its production volume sharply declines due to larger size, longer manufacturingand spec upgrade. SEMCO (009150 KS) and LG Innotek (011070 KS) will likely be themajor beneficiaries of Korea’s new substrate/MLCC boom (see our report). AI: Artificial intelligenceASIC: Application-specific integrated circuitASP: Average selling priceDDR4/5: 4th/5thgen double-data rate DRAMDRAM: Dynamic random-access memoryHBM4: High bandwidth memory 6thgenIT:mainly referring to PC and smartphoneKV: Key valueLPDDR5: Low-power DDR5LTA: Long-term agreementMLCC: Multi-layer ceramic capacitorNAND: Not-AND memoryTCB: Thermal compression bondingwpm: wafers per month Korea semis exports & China chip imports Exhibit2:Slightly dropped MoM but still near record-high level in Apr(US$18.3bn; -2% MoM) Korea semis exports–first 20 days of month (US$bn) Korea semis exports–YoY in first 20 days of month Monthly memory chip imports to China and YoY China IC imports by chip type Quarterly average contract price Exhibit8:DRAM contract price hit new-record high of US$35-40 inAprilDRAM contract price - quarterly average trend Exhibit9:April contract price likely up more than 20% even after+200% in 4Q25 and +80% in 1Q2616Gb DDR5 contract price – QoQ change trend 2Q26is an estimate by TrendForce released as of 16thAprilSource:TrendForce Exhibit10:NAND contract also hit all time high level; priceexpectedtohit $30 level in 2Q26NAND wafer contract price - quarterly average trend NAND wafer contract price – QoQ change trend 2Q26 is an estimate by TrendForce released as of 16thAprilSource:DRAMeXchange, TrendForce 2Q26 is an estimate by TrendForce released as of 16thAprilSource:TrendForce Memory spot/contract price trend Exhibit12: DRAM spot price