全球存储技术周报：HBM/LTA基调趋缓、长期短缺、基板/MLCC回升

Weekly theme: toned-down HBM/LTA, L-Tshortages, substrate/MLCC upturn Industry Overview Chipmakers less enthusiasticon HBM and LTAs Our new analysissuggests memory chipmakers have recently become less enthusiasticabout expanding HBM capacity after 1Q results. Three reasons: (1) conventional DRAM(mostly LPDDR5) much more profitable vs HBM; (2) slightly muted HBM4 order growth,and (3) rapidly rising KV cache memory-based AI inferencing using NAND. Thus, someunused capex budget (initially earmarked for HBM) seem to be used for conventionalDRAM and even NAND. Separately, some chipmakers alluded to reduced interest in LTA(long-term agreement)-based chip sales, given the growing number of customers payinghigher DRAM and NAND contract prices each quarter. Chipmakers’concerns (about LTA)are limited price/profit upside If memory chip supply shortages persist into 2027-28 orthe risk of broken long-term contracts if a downturn emerges. Overall, we expect 2Hearnings growth (vs 2Q) to be more dependent on conventional memory (instead ofHBM4), while new LTA-based long-term contracts may grow less (the majority 2H26-1H27 conventional memory sales still quarterly price negotiation basis, in our view). Lower expectationsfor 2028 wafer capacity expansionInvestors maybe concerned about sizable DRAM wafer capacity to be added from newly constructed shell fabs in Korea/the US, particularly in 2028. However, most chipmakersappear to expect only 50-60k wpm capacity addition at max for each fab in 2028. True,clean room space (of the new fab) can offer even 100k pa, but high execution risks (1dnode, etc) to run a new fab with large scale is likely to make chipmakers to add front-endwafer fabrication equipment on a more disciplined basis. This suggests only single-digit% wafer capacity growth for entire global DRAM industry. We believe chipmakers’long-term bullish view (shortage) is also based on this type of new wafer capacityexpansion constraints. Nonetheless, TCB equipment will be strongly demanded in 2028,which is mainly for 16-/20-HBM4e (to be used Rubin Ultra and more advanced AI ASICs). Memory spot price correctionaccelerated, led by DDR4DDR4 (legacy DRAM) is now less demandedin the spot market (due to 50%+ price premium vs DDR5). Thus, its spot price has declined more notably this week (down 5-8%). That said, DDR5 (much cheaper vs DDR4 despite higher spec) remained stable. Webelieve this trend may continue into June (DDR5’s outperformance vs DDR4). Korea’supbeat semis exports (up 182% YoY for the first 20 days of April) are mostly based onDDR5, HBM and NAND (DDR4 portion to be sub-1% of total memory shipments). Rising optimism on Korea’s substrate/MLCCWe are morebullish on Korea’s substrate/MLCC, which should be further in demand by US Big Tech. Like DRAM, if conventional MLCC/substrate capacity (for IT) is used for AIserver, its production volume sharply declines due to larger size, longer manufacturingand spec upgrade. SEMCO (009150 KS) and LG Innotek (011070 KS) will likely be themajor beneficiaries of Korea’s new substrate/MLCC boom (see our report). Korea semis exports & China chip imports Exhibit2:Slightly dropped MoM but still near record-high level in Apr(US$18.3bn; -2% MoM)Korea semis exports–first 20 days of month (US$bn) Exhibit7:Memory monthly imports grew 130-200% YoY growthduring Jan-MarMonthly memory chip imports to China and YoY China IC imports by chip type Quarterly average contract price Exhibit8:DRAM contract price hit new-record high of US$35-40 inAprilDRAM contract price - quarterly average trend Exhibit9:April contract price likely up more than 20% even after+200% in 4Q25 and +80% in 1Q2616Gb DDR5 contract price – QoQ change trend 2Q26is an estimate by TrendForce released as of 16thAprilSource:TrendForce Exhibit10:NAND contract also hit all time high level; priceexpectedtohit $30 level in 2Q26NAND wafer contract price - quarterly average trend NAND wafer contract price – QoQ change trend Memory spot/contract price trend Exhibit12: DRAM spot price softened in March/Aprilafter an exceptionally strong rally from Sept-25 to Jan-2026.DRAM price hit the highest levels in thepast 25 yearsas the current mainstream DRAM 16Gb DDR5 stood at US$38 and 16Gb DDR4 at $65 as chipmakers reallocated production to HBM andserver-grade DRAM. Previous high level was hit in Oct-17, but it was only $10 range.DRAM spot price – long-term trend (2000-2025) Exhibit16:MoM growth decelerated to +10% inFeb to broadlystable in Mar and slightly down in Apr, following Jan rally (25%) vs+60-120% range during Oct-Nov16Gb DDR5 spot month-average price–MoM change,Aug ’23-Apr ‘26 Exhibit15: Prices slightly up for two consecutive weeks in 2H-Aprvs correction in 1H-Apr - inching back to highest peak level of $40;robust rally observed in Oct (+70%) and Nov (+60%) and Jan(+25%) and remained broadly muted in Feb/Mar16Gb DDR5 spot price–daily, Aug ’23-Apr ‘26 Exhibit17:8Gb DDR4stable in Mar/Apr but YoYrallysignificantdue t