1Q26业绩：服务CPU业务

CompanyIntel RatingHold 24 April 2026 INTC US INTC.OQ United States Semiconductors 1Q26 Results: Serving CPUs Research Analyst+1-415-617-3268 Intel delivered a very impressive 1Q/2Q report/guide, with revenues in bothperiods roughly+10%above DBests.BothIntel Products segments upsided(DCAI +15 and CCG +11% above DBe) with agentic Al-driven growth in serverCPUs and better than feared stability in PC CPUs. While supply limitationspersist, INTC expectsthe seculartailwinds in DCAIto persist as agenticAl shiftsthe ratio of Server CPU's to GPUs from 1:8 to 1:4. The net revenue impact is Intelexpecting a DCAl-led delivery of typical H/H seasonality despite CCG guided to apotentiallyconservativesub-seasonal 2Hduetodemand/cost/supplyconstraints(total revs +8-9% H/H) . On the margin front, while INTC posted a sizeable GMbeat in its1Q26report(~+650bpsvs.themidpointofguidance)andguided2Q26above expectationsaswell (39%versusDBeof~36%),thecocautioned thattheramp of Panther Lake (18A) would be headwinds to GMs in 2H26. Finally, on thetechnology front, INTC sounded significantly more confident in its ramp of 18A(yields/cycletimes improving aheadof plan)and14A(moving moreIntel Productroadmap internally & citing TeraFab collaboration with that customer highlighting14A).Overall, webelievethat this quarter was an excellent report/guide forINTC,with Server CPU strength, internal/external endorsements of node progressions,andsolidGMimprovement.Webelievethecombinationofthesedynamicsandthe repurchase of Intel 34 should yield a meaningful increase in INTC's LT EPSpower, with our estimate rising from a range of ~$2-3, to now $3-4. While weapplaud INTC's execution, following the recentrallyin its shareprice, we believethisincreasedLTEPSspowerisadequatelyreflectedinitsvaluation. Consequently, we maintain our Hold rating, but raise P/T to $63 (18x~$3-4 LT EPS power) ResearchAssociate+1-415-262-2007 Price target (USD)456340%Source: Deutsche Bank PositivesOutweighNegatives Positives INTC delivered a sizable top-line beat in its 1Q26 report,with revenuesof $13.6b (~flat q/q) easily exceeding guidance of $12.2b (-10% q/q) onbetterthan expected quarters inbothCCG(-6%q/qvsDBe-15%onresilient demand and positiveSeries 3product launch)and DCAl (+7%q/qvsDBe-7%on server CPUdemand strength-INTCbelieves ratioofserver CPU's to GPUs moves from 1:8 to 1:4). Importantly, this strengthwasdeliveredinthefaceofcontinuedsupplyconstraints,andisexpectedto continue into 2Q26, with revenues guided up ~+5% q/q at the midpointto $14.3b (DBe likely conservative given an average TTM beat of ~+7%,but ranging from+3-11% over that same time period). beating the midpoint of guidance by ~+650bps (41%vs.guidance of34.5%). This beat was driven by higher volume (inclusive of previouslywritten down inventory), mix and pricing in addition to the moresustainable trend of better yields on Intel 18A (improving q/q goingforward, but with Panther Lake GMs still below corporate averagethrough 2026). products being allocated to 14A going forward. Additionally, while notoutright announcing Elon Musk's TeraFab as a14A customer, CEO LipBu Tan did endorse the partnership between INTC and TeraFab, with thismultilateral announcement from the two companies serving as the mostpublic endorsement of INTC's nascent process technologyto date. Negatives 1.INTC calledoutexpectations of PC demandweakening in2H26(CCGflatq/q in 3Q and 4Q), which while not entirely surprising given the ongoingmemory dynamics due to the strength of Al demand, still represents ameaningful headwind to the co's CCG segment (~55-60% of totalcompanyrevenues). 2.Opex in the 1Q26 report came in ~slightly above DBe ($3.9b vs. $3.87b)but more importantlyis expectedtoexceedthe~$16btargetforCY26variablecompensationandcontinued investmentsbythecompany Intel Wemaintain our Hold rating and move to a $63P/T.Our P/T is based on ~18x our increasedLTPFEPSpower of ~$3-4(moved up from~$2-3 prior due toincreased confidence in manufacturing capabilities). Key upside risks include alowercostofIDM2.0thanexpected,acceleration inbusinesstrends,sharegains,governmental assistance, and mis-execution by competition. Downside risksinclude a cyclical slowdown in the semis industry, share loss, higher costs fromIDM 2.0 than expected, lack of customer appetite for IFS, and continued mis-executiononmanufacturing. Non-GAAPRevenue: $13.8-14.8b Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 39.0%Non-GAAP Tax Rate: 11%Non-GAAP EPS: $0.20 Source:Deutsche Bank Research,CompanyData Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Company Data Appendix 1 exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors.Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subjectcompanies,andothersources. 1 -Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company,for which it received fees. 2 - Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) may act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the financial instrumentsissued by this comp