2025年亚太保险业年中展望报告资本储备充足缓解关税引发的市场波动风险

Asia-Pacific InsuranceMid-Year Outlook 2025 Strong Capital Buffers Dampen Tariff-Driven Market Volatility Table OfContents Related Research23 Analytical Contacts24 Key Takeaways • Insurers face a new set of potential macro-financial shocks, triggered by escalating trade tensions. S&P Global Ratingsbelieves the ripple effects will be wide but uneven. • Asia-Pacific insurers enter these tougher credit conditions from a position of strength, with solid capital adequacy andstable credit fundamentals. • Our base case is for ratings stability in 2025. Various factors could nevertheless affect insurers. These includefluctuations in investment valuations; forex market volatility; supply-chain disruptions affecting property/casualty lines, Disclaimer Strong Capital Buffers DampenTariff Volatility Ratings •Credit rating outlooks largely stable. 74% in ‘A’ category ratings, 20% in ‘AA’category ratings • Tariff effects are secondary but multifactorial. • Key risks around the baseline: Outlooks82% stable, 18% positive • Trade tension and geopolitical challenges couldraise forex and market volatility, affecting growth Capital adequacyRedundant at 99.8% confidence level on • Non-modelled impact of natural disasters; • Increase in regulation can expose insurers to legaland governance risks and entail higher operational Liquidity67% assessed exceptional; remainder haveadequate cover • Major business acquisitions or investments couldnegatively affect capital. Market Conditions| Moderating Inflation Enables Rate Cuts, Except In Japan Inflation trajectory supports policy rate glide path We expect heightened equity market volatility* •Many Asia-Pacific markets are experiencing lower policy rates asinflation pressure softens. •Uncertainty around tariff policy and geopolitics could heightencapital market volatility, with security valuation effects. Investments| Asset Mix Stable But Exposed To Credit And Market Risks •For APAC ex-China, relatively stable asset mix with major exposure in fixed income, followed by equity, loans and other investments.Allocation to equities may fall as Japanese insurers accelerate sales of strategically held equities. •Outside China, insurers are reducing asset-liability mismatch as returns improve (mainly in Japan) and regulation requires tighter ALM. •China insurers are adjusting investments in search for yield, with gradual increase in equity investments. Asia-Pacific Insurers| Aggregate Capital Adequacy Indicates A Solid Buffer Revised capital model indicates aggregated capital adequacy is solid •We expect Asia-Pacific insurers’ aggregatecapital buffer to stay strong at a 99.8% •China and Hong Kong insurers have aslightly weaker capital buffer due to capital •On the other hand, there is greater diversityof capital strength by individual companies inAsia-Pacific. The insurers that possess •About 19% and 48% of the rated insurers inAsia-Pacific show adequate capital at orabove 99.95% and 99.99% confidence Appendix Key Themes| Stricter Requirements Will Lead To Stronger Capital Regulatory and accounting standards in Asia-Pacific are evolving, with a shift to economic value-based reporting Australia P/C And Life Insurance Markets Rating distribution Key credit factors: Headwinds Key credit factors: Tailwinds •P/C:Earnings to benefit from strong rate rises with ROE in themid-teens, supplemented with improved investment returns. •P/C:Earnings could be challenged by rising claims andaffordability – particularly in personal lines. •Natural catastrophe gross exposure is higher than average butmoderated by strong reinsurance cover and risk management. •Life:Distribution is now improving after advisor and bankdistribution challenges. The market is dominated by five insurers •Life:Modest profitability on 2%-3% premium increases andgroup pension inflows. Australia Mortgage And Health Insurance Market Rating distribution Key credit factors: Headwinds Key credit factors: Tailwinds •Health insurer’s earnings and growth are challenged by an agingpopulation and increasing medical cost inflation. Performance to •Health:Strong regulation, government support initiatives, andadequate premium rate increases support profitability. •Mortgage insurers' solid profitability supported by very low claimswith low unemployment and continued house price growth, •Rising economic uncertainty may further dent mortgageinsurance demand, and impact unemployment. China Insurance Market Rating distribution Key credit factors: Tailwinds Key credit factors: Headwinds •China's underpenetrated insurance market holds long-termgrowth potential, despite short-term pain amid slower economy. •Market volatility and low interest rates may pose earnings strain,while slower growth will likely soften demand. •P/C insurers face pricing pressures and EV insurance remains ina trial-and-error phase, keeping combined ratios near 100%. •China’s financial reforms and evolving regulations should