AI服务器脉搏：竞逐稀缺性

1Q26 AI Server Pulse: Chasing Scarcity Building on our 4Q25 AI tracker, this 1Q26 Tracker focuses on: 1) AI capex and data centerprojects; 2) GPU and ASIC shipment progress and server market model update; and 3) financial Alex Wang, CFA+852 2123 2613alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com In YTD 2026, investors have rotated towards segments with supply shortagenarratives and emerging technologies poised for strong adoption.PCB, CPO, memoryand testers are among the top gainers, with sampled stocks price up 100%-160% YTD. This Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.comMark L. Moerdler, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8506mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com Total investment in planned and in-construction data centers is around US$960B. Post-4Q25 earnings, consensus raised 2026 capex estimates for major CSPs by nearly30% vs. Nov 2025, and model total capex to grow 38% CAGR to ~US$820B by 2027.Oracle has completed a 4.5GW capacity lease commitment to OpenAI. Meanwhile, there isa growing list of confirmed AIDC projects, including Amazon’s US$50B AI build-out for theU.S. government, US$15B in Northern Indiana, and roughly US$40B in Spain. ASIC adoptionis also accelerating, with Meta’s multi-billion-dollar TPU deal with Google, and Anthropic Mark Shmulik+1 917 344 8508mark.shmulik@bernsteinsg.com Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com We model global server and high-end GPU server shipment to grow at 7%/35%CAGRs respectively in 2025-27E, with the total server market reaching about US$720B(Model).We expect high-end GPU servers shipment (8-GPU equivalent) to grow 48%this year, and total rack shipment to be 61K/88K in 2026/2027 (Exhibit 18). We trim Rubinrack shipment to 3K in 4Q26.We project ASICs to comprise 46% of the total CoWoS-based AI chip shipment in 2026, and TPU shipment to grow c.90% YoY.And our Asia Firoz Valliji, CFA+1 917 344 8316firoz.valliji@bernsteinsg.com Madison Rezaei+1 917 344 8622madison.rezaei@bernsteinsg.com Shirley Yang, CFA+852 2123 2660shirley.yang@bernsteinsg.comEthan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com High memory price doesn’t affect AI server demand.The demand for AI & hence formemory remains robust despite high memory price (report, model). Rubin & HBM4 possibly isdelayed but it does not affect the tight supply, strong memory price & record earnings enjoyed In YTD 2026, among 29 AI server supply-chain stocks, 13 have seen higher valuationmultiples and 14 have seen P/E compression(Exhibit 31-Exhibit 32). Valuations havecontracted in fabless names and ODMs, likely due to tech risk-off amid the U.S.-Iran conflictand concerns over ODM profitability. In contrast, PCB, optical links, power, and thermal nameshave seen multiple expansion on supply constraints and rising dollar content in AI servers.Versus January 2026, consensus 2026 EPS estimates have risen for most of our sampled BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE Chroma: We rate Chroma Outperform, with PT = NT$1,660.00.Delta: We rate Delta Outperform, with PT = NT$1,830.00.Unimicron: We rate Unimicron Outperform, with PT = NT$610.00. Meta: We rate Meta Outperform with PT = $900. Amazon:We rate Amazon Outperform with PT = $265. Microsoft:We rate Microsoft Outperform with PT = $645 as we believe the company will be a winner in both Cloud and AI. Oracle:We rate Oracle Outperform with PT = $364 as the company is positioned to be the 3rd strong ROI from the build-out of both Cloud and AI including AI training/inferencing datacenters. While the build-out will occur over the next 4 years the valuation creation continues for at least another 9 years.AMD (Market-Perform, $265.00):AI expectations remain high, but server strength may help, and the new Meta deal seemssupportive to FY27 numbers. AVGO (Outperform, $525.00):A strong 2025 AI trajectory seems set to accelerate into 2026, bolstered by software, cashdeployment, and superb margins & FCF. INTC (Market-Perform, $60.00):Intel's problems have broken through to the forefront, though server strength may help tooffset other weakness for now, and narrative/headlines may fuel the vibe. NVDA (Outperform, $300.00):The datacenter opportunity is enormous, and still early, with material upside still possible QCOM (OP, $140.00):Memory headwinds appear likely to pressure smartphone builds and numbers appear high; cheapvaluation may not be enough to attract buyers. Samsung Electronics:We rate Samsung Electronics Outperform with price target of KRW225,000. SK hynix :We rate SK hynix Outperform with price target of KRW 1,150,000. Micron:We rate Micron Outperform with price target of US$510.00. TSMC:We rate TSMC Outperform with price target of NT$2,200.00. MediaTek:We rate MediaTek Outperform with price target of NT$2,250.00. HPE:We rate HPE Market-Perform with price target of $21. SMCI:We rate SMCI Market-Perform with price target of $37. DELL:We rate Dell Outperform with price target of $220. STX:We rate STX Outperform with price targ